LFO 10 are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Prestige. Bookmakers lean Prestige at 53%. Strength slightly favours Prestige, record slightly favours Prestige, firepower clearly favours LFO 10.
Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LFO 10pullPrestige
Team strength1482
151858/42 PRE
Track record8–11
15–1458/42 PRE
Recent formWWLLW
WWLLL52/48 LFO
Roster rating1.14
1.0489/11 LFO
Bookmakers imply 47% for LFO 10 (1.95 / 1.71); we land 7 points higher at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (44 maps of LFO 10, 52 of Prestige).
Bottom line: LFO 10 to beat Prestige, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
LFO 10 · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Prestige · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Prestige53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Prestige 2-0
If the veto goes
LFO 10 47%how the series ends53% Prestige
21%2-029%
26%2-124%
Map 1AncientLFO 10 pick
LFO 1046%3-5vsPrestige54%6-8
38%Win43%
44%CT43%
47%T50%
25%Pistol50%
50%Conv79%
Map 2InfernoPrestige pick
LFO 1046%1-1vsPrestige54%7-4
50%Win64%
67%CT55%
41%T56%
75%Pistol45%
67%Conv80%
Map 3Anubisdecider
LFO 1051%2-3vsPrestige49%1-2
40%Win33%
50%CT54%
48%T36%
60%Pistol33%
67%Conv0%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LFO 10AncientPrestige
44%CT side43%
47%T side50%
25%Pistol50%
50%After win79%
17%After loss21%
LFO 10InfernoPrestige
67%CT side55%
41%T side56%
75%Pistol45%
67%After win80%
0%After loss25%
LFO 10AnubisPrestige
50%CT side54%
48%T side36%
60%Pistol33%
67%After win0%
50%After loss0%
Pistol rounds43% · 46% · Prestige win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol62% · 73% · Prestige keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 20% · LFO 10 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LFO 10 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.