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Predictions / GamerLegion vs Luminosity · match preview
GamerLegion vs Luminosity: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 6
GamerLegion
World #24 · 43-35
VS
2026-11-17 18:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 6 · Best of 3
Luminosity
World #32 · 10-15
Stake Ranked Episode 6 · Best of 3
69%31%
53%
1.741.99Market · 1 books
47%The call · high confidence
GamerLegion are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean GamerLegion at 53%. Strength slightly favours GamerLegion, record slightly favours GamerLegion, form clearly favours GamerLegion, firepower clearly favours GamerLegion, head-to-head clearly favours GamerLegion.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GamerLegionpullLuminosity
Team strength1595
153463/37 GAM
Track record43–35
10–1559/41 GAM
Recent formLWWLW
LLLLL83/17 GAM
Roster rating1.11
1.0774/26 GAM
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 GAM
Bookmakers imply 53% for GamerLegion (1.74 / 1.99); we land 16 points higher at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (166 maps of GamerLegion, 53 of Luminosity). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: GamerLegion leads 2–0.
Bottom line: GamerLegion to beat Luminosity, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGamerLegion · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Luminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
GamerLegion
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
GamerLegion13 : 7
Luminosity!3mo ago GamerLegion13 : 3 Luminosity!
GamerLegion13 : 7 Luminosity!⚠ Different lineup
GamerLegion
outSnax, kRaSnaL
inREZ, shalfey
GamerLegion13 : 3 Luminosity!⚠ Different lineup
GamerLegion
outSnax
inshalfey
Luminosity
outBymas
inyxngstxr
Astralis#194-31-2
GamerLegion vs Astralis
Jun 6LAncient4-13May 14WMirage13-3Ancient13-8May 2WOverpass13-8Inferno16-14+1 earlier meeting
Luminosity vs Astralis
Oct 4LMirage13-11Cache7-13Nuke11-13
M80#212-13-3
Ninjas in Pyjamas#235-62-2
GamerLegion vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 28LAncient17-19Nuke16-14Cache6-13Mirage9-13Sep 17WDust213-8Apr 2WNuke6-13Mirage13-11Ancient13-11+1 earlier meeting
B8#251-34-1
Envy#284-11-2
Luminosity vs Envy
Oct 28LInferno11-13Dust213-8Ancient10-13
HOTU#300-60-2
Luminosity vs HOTU
Oct 27LMirage11-13Ancient4-13
BIG#372-02-1
GamerLegion vs BIG
Jun 4WOverpass16-14Ancient13-11Luminosity vs BIG
Oct 2WInferno9-13Cache13-5Mirage16-13
Metizport#672-11-0
Luminosity vs Metizport
Sep 17WMirage13-9Map lab
GamerLegion54%to win the Bo3 · most likely GamerLegion 2-1
If the veto goes
GamerLegion 54%how the series ends46% Luminosity
25%2-019%
29%2-127%
GamerLegion71%17-11vsLuminosity29%4-7
61%Win36%
50%CT52%
49%T46%
38%Pistol68%
71%Conv93%
GamerLegion35%17-18vsLuminosity65%6-3
49%Win67%
52%CT54%
47%T48%
46%Pistol39%
78%Conv86%
GamerLegion52%17-13vsLuminosity48%5-4
57%Win56%
53%CT50%
51%T47%
53%Pistol56%
84%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GamerLegionInfernoLuminosity
50%CT side52%
49%T side46%
38%Pistol68%
71%After win93%
23%After loss14%
GamerLegionMirageLuminosity
52%CT side54%
47%T side48%
46%Pistol39%
78%After win86%
18%After loss27%
GamerLegionAncientLuminosity
53%CT side50%
51%T side47%
53%Pistol56%
84%After win80%
32%After loss13%
Pistol rounds46% · 55% · Luminosity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 88% · Luminosity keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 19% · GamerLegion fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, GamerLegion vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Luminosity habitually bans Cache, GamerLegion's strongest maps (Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Cache 17/25), not an opponent read, so expect GamerLegion to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapGAMLUM
AnubisGAM ban25%1-3n/a0g
GamerLegion on Anubis
L
Natus Vincere9–136mo agoL
BetBoom8–137mo agoL
Alliance14–168mo agoW
illwill13–109mo agoLuminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheLUM ban80%8-220%1-4
InfernoGAM pick61%17-1136%4-7
MirageLUM pick49%17-1867%6-3
Dust2GAM ban26%5-1430%3-7
NukeLUM ban56%18-1444%4-5
Ancientdecider57%17-1356%5-4
Each team's usual first ban: GamerLegion Anubis · Luminosity Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
GamerLegion
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/88 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 88 maps they won, 28 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasDust2from 8 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 7 downvs SINNERSCachefrom 6 downvs BC.GameInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/78 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 78 maps they lost, 31 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs HOTUDust2led 9 · lost 6-13vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs B8Nukeled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs VenomTrain16-14vs AuroraInferno16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirage16-12vs AvantiAncient16-12vs SINNERSMirage16-19
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/23 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 23 maps they won, 9 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs B8Infernofrom 4 downvs BBLNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i10/30 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 30 maps they lost, 10 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs EnvyInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs 3DMAXDust2led 4 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi47% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT47% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19vs 3DMAXDust216-19vs 3DMAXAncient19-15vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs BIGMirage16-13