Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Balkan Outlaws vs The Last Resort · match preview
Balkan Outlaws vs The Last Resort: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11
BAL
Balkan Outlaws
World #– · 1-1
VS
2026-11-08 14:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
The Last Resort
World #131 · 47-43
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
66%34%
64%
1.462.56Market · 8 books
36%The call
Balkan Outlaws are favoured: our model gives them 66% against The Last Resort. Bookmakers lean Balkan Outlaws at 64%. Strength slightly favours Balkan Outlaws, form slightly favours The Last Resort, firepower clearly favours Balkan Outlaws, head-to-head clearly favours Balkan Outlaws.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Balkan OutlawspullThe Last Resort
Team strength1506
147257/43 BAL
Track record1–147–4350/50
Recent formLW
WLLLW57/43 THE
Roster rating1.14
1.0775/25 BAL
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 BAL
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 64% for Balkan Outlaws (1.46 / 2.56) and we land at 66%, the same read. This read is 55% our own signal (4 maps of Balkan Outlaws, 216 of The Last Resort; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Balkan Outlaws leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Balkan Outlaws to beat The Last Resort, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBalkan Outlaws · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERSIN★ | 1.35 | 92.8 | 75.2% | 63% | 1.39 |
| Ciocardau | 1.14 | 75.9 | 75.7% | 61% | 1.19 |
| grecu | 1.24 | 71.4 | 74.8% | 32% | 1.16 |
| d1maje | 1 | 77.9 | 66.8% | 72% | 1 |
| starplajerz | 0.88 | 63.1 | 74% | 59% | 0.96 |
The Last Resort · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.02iStar gap: the best player rates 0.02 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Balkan Outlaws
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsMap lab
The Last Resort51%to win the Bo3 · most likely The Last Resort 2-1
If the veto goes
Balkan Outlaws 49%how the series ends51% The Last Resort
25%2-025%
24%2-126%
Balkan Outlaws50%0-0thinThe Last Resort50%26-18
–Win59%
–CT61%
–T47%
–Pistol58%
–Conv84%
Balkan Outlaws50%0-0thinThe Last Resort50%26-20
–Win57%
–CT54%
–T47%
–Pistol41%
–Conv76%
Balkan Outlaws49%0-1vsThe Last Resort51%7-11
0%Win39%
33%CT49%
38%T41%
100%Pistol50%
100%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Balkan OutlawsNukeThe Last Resort
–CT side61%
–T side47%
–Pistol58%
–After win84%
–After loss22%
Balkan OutlawsAncientThe Last Resort
–CT side54%
–T side47%
–Pistol41%
–After win76%
–After loss24%
Balkan OutlawsCacheThe Last Resort
33%CT side49%
38%T side41%
100%Pistol50%
100%After win83%
–After loss28%
Pistol rounds100% · 50% · Balkan Outlaws win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 81% · Balkan Outlaws keep the momentum more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Balkan Outlaws vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBALTHE
MirageBAL bann/a0g25%5-15
Balkan Outlaws on Mirage
no recent maps
Dust2THE ban50%1-143%6-8
NukeBAL pickn/a0g59%26-18
Balkan Outlaws on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientTHE pickn/a0g57%26-20
Balkan Outlaws on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoBAL ban100%1-052%17-16
Balkan Outlaws on Inferno
WThe Last Resort13–61d agoAnubisTHE bann/a0g55%11-9
Balkan Outlaws on Anubis
no recent maps
Cachedecider0%0-139%7-11
Balkan Outlaws on Cache
L
FOKUS7–131d agoEach team's usual first ban: Balkan Outlaws ? · The Last Resort Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Balkan Outlaws
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs The Last ResortDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/2 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 1 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FOKUSCacheled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortDust2from 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FOKUSCacheled 3 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs FOKUSDust212-16
The Last Resort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/109 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 38 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 downvs The PigsInfernofrom 9 downvs QUAZARNukefrom 8 downvs Saint SinnersInfernofrom 7 downvs LilmixMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i38/107 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 107 maps they lost, 38 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs G2 AresCacheled 11 · lost 2-13vs QUAZARAnubisled 10 · lost 10-13vs CTRLMirageled 9 · lost 11-13vs HonvédInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs FuzosOverpass16-13vs BUFF3D UPNuke16-13vs CTRLAncient16-14vs Rune EatersAnubis14-16vs HEROIC AcademyInferno14-16