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Predictions / Balkan Outlaws vs ex-ENCE · match preview
Balkan Outlaws vs ex-ENCE: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 10
BAL
Balkan Outlaws
World #– · 1-1
VS
2026-11-09 11:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
ex-ENCE
World #113 · 2-0
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
50%50%
45%
2.021.68Market · 1 books
55%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean ex-ENCE at 55%. Form slightly favours ex-ENCE, firepower slightly favours Balkan Outlaws.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Balkan Outlawspullex-ENCE
Team strength1506
152654/46 EX-
Track record1–1
2–052/48 EX-
Recent formLW
WW68/32 EX-
Roster rating1.14
1.2467/33 BAL
Bookmakers imply 45% for Balkan Outlaws (2.02 / 1.68); we land 5 points higher at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 55% our own signal (4 maps of Balkan Outlaws, 176 of ex-ENCE; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Balkan Outlaws to beat ex-ENCE, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBalkan Outlaws · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERSIN★ | 1.35 | 92.8 | 75.2% | 63% | 1.39 |
| Ciocardau | 1.14 | 75.9 | 75.7% | 61% | 1.19 |
| grecu | 1.24 | 71.4 | 74.8% | 32% | 1.16 |
| d1maje | 1 | 77.9 | 66.8% | 72% | 1 |
| starplajerz | 0.88 | 63.1 | 74% | 59% | 0.96 |
ex-ENCE · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.34iStar gap: the best player rates 0.34 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Balkan Outlaws
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
ex-ENCE51%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-ENCE 2-0
If the veto goes
Balkan Outlaws 49%how the series ends51% ex-ENCE
24%2-026%
25%2-125%
Balkan Outlaws47%1-1vsex-ENCE53%1-0
50%Win100%
79%CT82%
42%T33%
50%Pistol50%
50%Conv100%
Balkan Outlaws50%1-0thinex-ENCE50%0-0
100%Win–
75%CT–
57%T–
100%Pistol–
50%Conv–
Balkan Outlaws50%0-1thinex-ENCE50%0-0
0%Win–
33%CT–
38%T–
100%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Balkan OutlawsDust2ex-ENCE
79%CT side82%
42%T side33%
50%Pistol50%
50%After win100%
50%After loss0%
Balkan OutlawsInfernoex-ENCE
75%CT side–
57%T side–
100%Pistol–
50%After win–
–After loss–
Balkan OutlawsCacheex-ENCE
33%CT side–
38%T side–
100%Pistol–
100%After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds75% · 50% · Balkan Outlaws win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol67% · 100% · ex-ENCE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol50% · 0% · Balkan Outlaws fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Balkan Outlaws vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBALEX-
MirageBAL bann/a0g100%1-0
Balkan Outlaws on Mirage
no recent maps
ex-ENCE on Mirage
W
SINQU13–76d agoNukeEX- bann/a0g100%2-0
Balkan Outlaws on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2BAL pick50%1-1100%1-0
ex-ENCE on Dust2
W
Azuolas13–105d agoInfernoEX- pick100%1-0n/a0g
Balkan Outlaws on Inferno
W
The Last Resort13–61d agoex-ENCE on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisBAL bann/a0gn/a0g
Balkan Outlaws on Anubis
no recent maps
ex-ENCE on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientEX- bann/a0gn/a0g
Balkan Outlaws on Ancient
no recent maps
ex-ENCE on Ancient
no recent maps
Cachedecider0%0-1n/a0g
Balkan Outlaws on Cache
L
FOKUS7–131d agoex-ENCE on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Balkan Outlaws ? · ex-ENCE ?.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Balkan Outlaws
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs The Last ResortDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/2 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 1 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FOKUSCacheled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortDust2from 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FOKUSCacheled 3 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs FOKUSDust212-16
ex-ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/4 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 2 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs AzuolasDust2from 7 downvs AzuolasNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AzuolasDust2from 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini4.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample