Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean ex-ENCE at 55%. Form slightly favours ex-ENCE, firepower slightly favours Balkan Outlaws.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Cache
Firepower
roster ratings
Balkan Outlaws · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-ENCE · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.34iStar gap: the best player rates 0.34 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
ex-ENCE51%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-ENCE 2-0
If the veto goes
Balkan Outlaws 49%how the series ends51% ex-ENCE
24%2-026%
25%2-125%
Map 1Dust2Balkan Outlaws pick
Balkan Outlaws47%1-1vsex-ENCE53%1-0
50%Win100%
79%CT82%
42%T33%
50%Pistol50%
50%Conv100%
Map 2Infernoex-ENCE pick
Balkan Outlaws50%1-0thinex-ENCE50%0-0
100%Win–
75%CT–
57%T–
100%Pistol–
50%Conv–
Map 3Cachedecider
Balkan Outlaws50%0-1thinex-ENCE50%0-0
0%Win–
33%CT–
38%T–
100%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Balkan OutlawsDust2ex-ENCE
79%CT side82%
42%T side33%
50%Pistol50%
50%After win100%
50%After loss0%
Balkan OutlawsInfernoex-ENCE
75%CT side–
57%T side–
100%Pistol–
50%After win–
–After loss–
Balkan OutlawsCacheex-ENCE
33%CT side–
38%T side–
100%Pistol–
100%After win–
–After loss–
Pistol rounds75% · 50% · Balkan Outlaws win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol67% · 100% · ex-ENCE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol50% · 0% · Balkan Outlaws fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Balkan Outlaws vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: Balkan Outlaws ? · ex-ENCE ?.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Balkan Outlaws
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs The Last ResortDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/2 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 1 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FOKUSCacheled 3 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs FOKUSDust212-16
ex-ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/4 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 2 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs AzuolasDust2from 7 downvs AzuolasNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample