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Predictions / BASEMENT BOYS vs Spirit Academy · match preview
BASEMENT BOYS vs Spirit Academy: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier
BASEMENT BOYS
World #64 · 53-50
VS
2026-11-08 09:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Spirit Academy
World #83 · 35-21
NODWIN Clutch Series 14 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
51%49%
55%
1.682.06Market · 15 books
45%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean BASEMENT BOYS at 55%. Record slightly favours Spirit Academy, form slightly favours BASEMENT BOYS.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BASEMENT BOYSpullSpirit Academy
Team strength1579
160355/45 SPI
Track record53–50
35–2159/41 SPI
Recent formWWLWL
WLLLW62/38 BAS
Roster rating1.11
1.0755/45 BAS
Bookmakers imply 55% for BASEMENT BOYS (1.68 / 2.06); we land 4 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (232 maps of BASEMENT BOYS, 126 of Spirit Academy).
Bottom line: BASEMENT BOYS to beat Spirit Academy, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBASEMENT BOYS · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit Academy · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BASEMENT BOYS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Inner Circle#381-20-2
BASEMENT BOYS vs Inner Circle
Mar 30LDust26-13Anubis13-11Ancient10-13Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle
Jun 18LNuke7-13Dust21-13
Nexus#552-22-0
Spirit Academy vs Nexus
Sep 18WDust213-1Cache13-8
Betclic#562-13-3
BASEMENT BOYS vs Betclic
Jan 15WAncient13-9Nuke7-13Mirage13-6
Leo#792-02-2
BASEMENT BOYS vs Leo
Aug 4WAnubis13-8Mirage13-7
ex-Zero Tenacity#870-20-2
BASEMENT BOYS vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 6LNuke10-13Inferno6-13Spirit Academy vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Oct 25LCache5-13Nuke2-13
QUAZAR#881-22-0
BASEMENT BOYS vs QUAZAR
Aug 27LDust216-13Anubis6-13Cache6-13Spirit Academy vs QUAZAR
Jul 17WDust213-2Anubis13-8
Inner Circle Academy#924-21-2
BASEMENT BOYS vs Inner Circle Academy
May 17WAncient13-7Nuke8-13Dust219-17May 17WAncient13-6Nuke7-13Dust213-9Spirit Academy vs Inner Circle Academy
Oct 23LAncient13-9Anubis6-13Dust29-13
BAKS#962-10-4
BASEMENT BOYS vs BAKS
Aug 15WCache13-5Nuke4-13Dust213-4Map lab
Spirit Academy59%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit Academy 2-1
If the veto goes
BASEMENT BOYS 41%how the series ends59% Spirit Academy
20%2-027%
21%2-132%
BASEMENT BOYS60%26-17vsSpirit Academy40%11-11
60%Win50%
56%CT58%
48%T41%
48%Pistol48%
80%Conv90%
BASEMENT BOYS33%22-22vsSpirit Academy67%17-8
50%Win68%
54%CT57%
48%T51%
55%Pistol44%
88%Conv91%
BASEMENT BOYS39%23-25vsSpirit Academy61%16-11
48%Win59%
52%CT57%
47%T38%
55%Pistol52%
85%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BASEMENT BOYSMirageSpirit Academy
56%CT side58%
48%T side41%
48%Pistol48%
80%After win90%
11%After loss9%
BASEMENT BOYSAncientSpirit Academy
54%CT side57%
48%T side51%
55%Pistol44%
88%After win91%
18%After loss25%
BASEMENT BOYSNukeSpirit Academy
52%CT side57%
47%T side38%
55%Pistol52%
85%After win79%
24%After loss19%
Pistol rounds53% · 48% · BASEMENT BOYS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 18% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BASEMENT BOYS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBASSPI
InfernoBAS ban41%7-10n/a0g
BASEMENT BOYS on Inferno
L
BC.Game8–133mo agoL
Alliance7–135mo agoL
fnatic5–135mo agoWBy Legends13–25mo agoL
JiJieHao12–166mo agoW
MASONIC13–46mo agoL
100 Thieves2–136mo agoL
aimclub5–137mo agoSpirit Academy on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisSPI ban63%12-756%5-4
MirageBAS pick60%26-1750%11-11
AncientSPI pick50%22-2268%17-8
Dust2BAS ban53%21-1968%15-7
CacheSPI ban41%7-1050%9-9
Nukedecider48%23-2559%16-11
Each team's usual first ban: BASEMENT BOYS Overpass · Spirit Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BASEMENT BOYS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/119 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 119 maps they won, 47 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs MisaAnubisfrom 10 downvs LPAncientfrom 9 downvs AcendAncientfrom 8 downvs PigeonsMiragefrom 6 downvs CSDIILITAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/113 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 113 maps they lost, 29 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mellrenDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs NexusMirageled 10 · lost 5-13vs EACAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs EACNukeled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MisaAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mellrenDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs AaBMirage16-12vs ARCREDInferno16-13vs RebelsNuke14-16vs brazylijski luzNuke19-17vs PigeonsMirage16-13
Spirit Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/74 (46%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 74 maps they won, 34 (46%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 46% of their wins were comebacks, not 46% of all games.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 downvs aimclubDust2from 7 downvs MAYBENukefrom 7 downvs Fire FluxNukefrom 7 downvs LavkedNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/50 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 50 maps they lost, 23 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PsychoFaceAncientled 12 · lost 1-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisled 11 · lost 6-13vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs ex-Zero TenacityCacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs INOX DivisionNukeled 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Mai TaiAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PsychoFaceAncientled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs BetclicNuke19-17vs Just PlayersDust213-16vs Young TigeRESDust225-22vs Nuclear TigeRESCache13-16vs ex-RUSTECDust213-16