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STATE vs ENCE: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · Exort Fiesta Series 1

STATE
2026-08-27 17:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 1
ENCE
Our model gives STATE a 63% chance to beat ENCE at Exort Fiesta Series 1. Bookmakers price STATE at 1.58 and ENCE at 2.3 (implied 59% vs 41%).
STATE
1.58odds
ENCE
2.3odds
Our read63%
37%
Market59%
41%
median decimal odds · 5 booksBookmakerSTAENC1xBit1.582.3ColdBet1.582.3Spinbet1.582.3Vivatbet1.582.3betlabel1.582.3
FormatBO3Form32-30 · 29-24PistolsSTATE 55%Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Cache
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.

Recent form

STATE

CYBERSHOKE27d ago0-2FortressStompStomp13-229d ago2-0Lazer CatsOvertimeOT1mo ago0-2Fortress1mo ago2-0MASQ3mo ago2-1MASONIC3mo ago1-2WashedOvertimeOT3mo ago2-1Sashi AcademyPistolsPist2/23mo ago13-7100 Thieves3mo ago2-0Fortress3mo ago2-0100 Thieves3mo ago0-2InvictaPistolsPist3/43mo ago2-095 VikingsPistolsPist4/4StompStomp13-13mo ago2-0UrsaOvertimeOT4mo ago0-2BRUTEPistolsPist3/44mo ago2-0

ENCE

Falcons ForcePistolsPist4/45d ago2-0LavkedPistolsPist3/47d ago2-0Noir VerseUpsetUpsetStompStomp2-138d ago1-2Mai TaiOvertimeOT9d ago2-1BERG10d ago2-0WBT11d ago0-2MOUZ NXT12d ago1-2Just PlayersUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT13d ago2-1EnjoyBlew leadBL614d ago1-2BC.GamePistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT26d ago0-2HAVUPistolsPist3/426d ago2-0KUUSAMO28d ago13-7SINQU28d ago13-9BOJONGPistolsPist0/2OvertimeOT28d ago16-12SPARTAPistolsPist3/41mo ago0-2

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
Alliance#270-12-0
STATE vs Alliance
Jan 23LOverpass11-13
ENCE vs Alliance
Feb 11WMirage13-5Overpass13-10
100 Thieves#312-22-0
STATE vs 100 Thieves
May 24WAncient13-11Mirage13-9May 24LAncient6-13Inferno6-13
ENCE vs 100 Thieves
Feb 25WAncient13-6Anubis13-8
CYBERSHOKE#850-22-3
STATE vs CYBERSHOKE
Jul 31LNuke8-13Ancient8-13
ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE
Feb 26LAnubis9-13Dust213-16Feb 10WNuke13-7Dust24-13Anubis13-6
ex-RUBY#862-42-3
STATE vs ex-RUBY
Apr 11LNuke13-9Mirage7-13Anubis14-16Apr 5LNuke13-7Mirage4-13Anubis10-13
ENCE vs ex-RUBY
Feb 4LAnubis8-13Mirage5-13Jan 28WAnubis13-4Mirage4-13Nuke13-5
HAVU#1251-22-0
STATE vs HAVU
Jan 24LInferno11-13Nuke13-11Overpass8-13
ENCE vs HAVU
Aug 1WCache13-10Anubis13-9
Lilmix#1751-44-0
STATE vs Lilmix
Apr 27LAncient7-13Mirage16-12Overpass10-13Jan 18LInferno11-13Overpass9-13
ENCE vs Lilmix
Apr 26WDust213-4Mirage13-9Apr 23WOverpass13-4Mirage13-9
SINQU#1801-01-0
STATE vs SINQU
Jan 24WNuke16-14
ENCE vs SINQU
Jul 30WCache13-9
CSDIILIT2-14-0
STATE vs CSDIILIT
Mar 23WAncient13-4Inferno7-13Nuke25-22
ENCE vs CSDIILIT
Apr 12WNuke13-5Mirage13-6Apr 11WNuke13-10Mirage13-0

Firepower

roster ratings

STATE · avg 1.12 · top +0.05

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
sL1m3881.2176.971.6%33%1.17
Queenix81.0271.678.7%54%1.16
Zanto1421.0172.874.6%61%1.15
kwezz1421.0378.273.1%54%1.14
Patti1420.8368.770.9%56%0.99

ENCE · avg 1.11 · top +0.03

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
millert721.1268.274.1%35%1.14
HENU720.9878.371.9%54%1.12
joeski221.027468.2%55%1.11
Schwarz700.987571.8%55%1.09
teme720.9668.773%53%1.07

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, STATE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSTAENC
Dust2STA ban n/a0g 33%3-6
STATE on Dust2
no recent maps
ENCE on Dust2
LAtreides4–133mo agoWLilmix13–44mo agoLJiJieHao5–134mo agoWASTRAL13–96mo agoWBESTIA13–96mo agoLCYBERSHOKE13–166mo agoLCYBERSHOKE4–137mo agoLNemiga9–137mo ago
InfernoENC ban 43%12-16 63%5-3
STATE on Inferno
LLazer Cats19–221mo agoWMASQ13–83mo agoWFortress13–63mo agoL100 Thieves6–133mo agoWBRUTE13–104mo agoLSashi Academy10–134mo agoWESC13–45mo agoLex-Zero Tenacity8–135mo ago
ENCE on Inferno
WFalcons Force13–115d agoWLavked13–77d agoWEnjoy13–614d agoWKUUSAMO13–728d agoWEntropy16–133mo agoLCYBERSHOKE Prospects7–133mo agoLAtreides5–133mo agoLEternal Fire8–136mo ago
NukeSTA pick 67%20-10 68%15-7
STATE on Nuke
LCYBERSHOKE8–1327d agoWFortress13–1029d agoWFortress13–51mo agoLMASQ10–133mo agoWMASONIC13–113mo agoWWashed13–33mo agoWFortress13–73mo agoWInvicta13–113mo ago
ENCE on Nuke
WNoir Verse13–98d agoWMai Tai13–49d agoWBERG13–510d agoLWBT8–1311d agoLMOUZ NXT7–1312d agoWJust Players13–713d agoLBC.Game13–1626d agoLSPARTA11–132mo ago
MirageENC pick 45%10-12 50%14-14
STATE on Mirage
WMASQ13–43mo agoWWashed13–53mo agoW100 Thieves13–93mo agoWInvicta13–33mo agoLUrsa4–134mo agoWLilmix16–124mo agoLex-RUBY7–135mo agoLENCE Academy7–135mo ago
ENCE on Mirage
WFalcons Force13–105d agoWLavked13–87d agoLNoir Verse6–138d agoLMOUZ NXT9–1312d agoLEnjoy11–1314d agoLBC.Game11–1326d agoWBOJONG16–1228d agoLSPARTA7–131mo ago
AnubisSTA ban 25%2-6 59%10-7
STATE on Anubis
LWashed13–163mo agoW95 Vikings13–43mo agoWBRUTE13–84mo agoLex-RUBY14–165mo agoLex-RUBY10–135mo agoLBIG Academy7–135mo agoLRune Eaters8–136mo agoLAaB13–167mo ago
ENCE on Anubis
LNoir Verse2–138d agoWMai Tai16–149d agoLWBT6–1311d agoWJust Players22–2013d agoWHAVU13–926d agoWeternal premium13–52mo agoWUNiTY13–113mo agoLCYBERSHOKE9–136mo ago
AncientENC ban 37%10-17 41%7-10
STATE on Ancient
LCYBERSHOKE8–1327d agoWFortress13–229d agoLLazer Cats9–131mo agoLMASONIC10–133mo agoWSashi Academy13–73mo agoW100 Thieves13–113mo agoL100 Thieves6–133mo agoW95 Vikings13–13mo ago
ENCE on Ancient
LMai Tai8–139d agoLJust Players9–1313d agoLSPARTA8–131mo agoWbrazylijski luz13–83mo agoWEntropy16–143mo agoLbrazylijski luz11–133mo agoWcirahvi13–83mo agoWKUUSAMO13–43mo ago
Cachedecider 100%1-0 75%3-1
STATE on Cache
WFortress13–71mo ago
ENCE on Cache
WMOUZ NXT13–1012d agoLEnjoy10–1314d agoWHAVU13–1026d agoWSINQU13–928d ago
Each team's usual first ban: STATE Dust2 · ENCE Inferno.

Map lab

Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.

ENCE53%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: ENCE 51% toss-up · Mirage: ENCE 54% toss-up · Cache: ENCE 50% toss-upWhyENCE hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesSTATE 47%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 22%  ·  ENCE 53%: 2-0 28%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
STATE 47%It’s nearly a coin-flip. ENCE only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.53% ENCE
Nuke
STATE49%
ENCE51%
20-10record15-7
67%win68%
54%CT win58%
56%T win56%
55%pistol48%
91%convert90%
Mirage
STATE46%
ENCE54%
10-12record14-14
45%win50%
56%CT win51%
41%T win51%
57%pistol52%
92%convert89%
Cache
STATE50%
ENCE50%
1-0record3-1
100%win75%
83%CT win60%
38%T win47%
0%pistol38%
–convert100%

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
STAct
STAt
ENCct
ENCt
STApistol
STAconv
STAeco
ENCpistol
ENCconv
ENCeco
Nukepool
54%167/311
56%184/331
58%125/215
56%135/240
55%33/60
91%30/33
15%4/27
48%21/44
90%19/21
17%4/23
Miragepool
56%145/258
41%79/193
51%142/277
51%146/285
57%25/44
92%23/25
32%6/19
52%29/56
89%24/27
7%2/27
Cachepool
83%10/12
38%3/8
60%29/48
47%20/43
0%0/2
n/a
100%2/2
38%3/8
100%3/3
0%0/5
Dust2ban
n/a
n/a
49%52/106
35%24/69
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%9/18
78%7/9
22%2/9
Infernoban
55%154/280
49%147/300
46%40/87
56%44/79
54%30/56
80%24/30
27%7/26
63%10/16
80%8/10
17%1/6
Anubisban
37%30/81
61%57/93
52%94/182
52%90/172
44%7/16
100%7/7
11%1/9
44%15/34
80%12/15
5%1/19
Ancientban
44%132/300
50%117/232
52%100/192
45%80/177
50%27/54
85%23/27
11%3/27
47%16/34
81%13/16
11%2/18
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
STATE wins more pistol rounds: 55% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (91% vs 90%). Lose the pistol → STATE fight back to win the next round more often (25% vs 11%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

STATE

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/70 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 27 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityOverpassfrom 6 downvs TNCOverpassfrom 5 downvs ex-Zero TenacityOverpassfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/72 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 30 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUBYAnubisled 7 · lost 10-13vs AcendAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs QWENTRYNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs G2 AresMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FORZE ReloadNuke12-16vs PhantomOverpass16-13vs AaBAnubis13-16vs Johnny SpeedsTrain16-14vs megoshortTrain17-19

ENCE

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/61 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 61 maps they won, 20 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 downvs eLITenergyNukefrom 5 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAnubisfrom 5 downvs AllianceOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/53 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 53 maps they lost, 19 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16vs WBTNukeled 8 · lost 8-13vs illwillMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs illwillAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs JiJieHaoOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis20-22vs fnaticAncient19-17vs illwillMirage13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust213-16vs fnaticOverpass14-16

STATE vs ENCE FAQ

Who is favored to win STATE vs ENCE?

STATE are favored with a 63% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for STATE vs ENCE?

Bookmakers price STATE at 1.58 and ENCE at 2.3 (implied 59% vs 41%).

When do STATE and ENCE play?

STATE vs ENCE is scheduled for 2026-08-27 17:00 UTC at Exort Fiesta Series 1.