Matches / Upcoming / 5star vs Vitalem Aerem
5star vs Vitalem Aerem: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1
Our model gives 5star a 61% chance to beat Vitalem Aerem at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1. Bookmakers price 5star at 1.32 and Vitalem Aerem at 2.94 (implied 69% vs 31%).
FormatBO3Form20-15 · 2-3Pistols5star 56%Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Inferno
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
5star
Vitalem Aerem
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Rare Atom#1014-21-2
Vitalem Aerem vs Rare Atom
Aug 23LInferno3-13Dust213-10Ancient11-13
The Huns#1062-31-4
Chinggis Warriors#2057-42-0
5star vs Chinggis Warriors
Jul 24WCache16-13Nuke13-10May 13WNuke13-7Inferno13-10Apr 2LMirage13-6Nuke9-13Inferno5-13+2 earlier meetings
Vitalem Aerem vs Chinggis Warriors
Aug 22WDust213-6Inferno13-8Firepower
roster ratings5star · avg 1.08 · top +0.04
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 5star vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Vitalem Aerem habitually bans Mirage & Cache, two of 5star's strongest maps (Nuke, Inferno, Mirage, Cache all ≥60%).
That's a standing habit (Mirage 4/5, Cache 4/5), not an opponent read, so expect 5star to fight the veto for Nuke.
Map5STVIT
Dust25ST ban 40%2-3 75%3-1
MirageVIT ban 83%5-1 n/a0g
5star on Mirage
W
Haunted House13–61d agoW
XDM13–112d agoL
Alter Ego1–134d agoWAlter Ego13–112mo agoWyunglean13–55mo agoWChinggis Warriors13–65mo agoVitalem Aerem on Mirage
no recent maps
Nuke5ST pick 63%15-9 0%0-2
AnubisVIT pick 50%4-4 100%1-0
Ancient5ST ban 29%5-12 50%1-1
CacheVIT ban 60%3-2 n/a0g
5star on Cache
LRare Atom10–132d agoW
Kaleido13–45d agoLThe Huns2–131mo agoWChinggis Warriors16–131mo agoW
NEXVOID13–101mo agoVitalem Aerem on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider 61%11-7 33%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: 5star Dust2 · Vitalem Aerem Cache.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
5star59%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: 5star 61% · Anubis: Vitalem Aerem 53% toss-up · Inferno: 5star 60%Why5star hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomes5star 59%: 2-1 30%, 2-0 29% · Vitalem Aerem 41%: 2-0 21%, 2-1 20%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
5star 59%It’s nearly a coin-flip. 5star only lead because their Nuke & Inferno is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.41% Vitalem Aerem
Nuke
5star61%Vitalem Aerem39%
15-9record0-2
63%win0%
59%CT win38%
55%T win8%
65%pistol25%
94%convert0%
Anubis
5star47%Vitalem Aerem53%
4-4record1-0
50%win100%
44%CT win83%
51%T win67%
50%pistol50%
63%convert100%
Inferno
5star60%Vitalem Aerem40%
11-7record1-2
61%win33%
56%CT win36%
44%T win56%
47%pistol50%
94%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
5STct
5STt
VITct
VITt
5STpistol
5STconv
5STeco
VITpistol
VITconv
VITeco
Nukepool
59%150/255
55%139/253
38%9/24
8%1/12
65%31/48
94%29/31
12%2/17
25%1/4
0%0/1
0%0/3
Anubispool
44%39/88
51%39/76
83%5/6
67%8/12
50%8/16
63%5/8
13%1/8
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
Infernopool
56%109/196
44%82/185
36%13/36
56%14/25
47%17/36
94%16/17
0%0/19
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Dust2ban
45%24/53
47%23/49
68%25/37
46%22/48
60%6/10
67%4/6
0%0/4
63%5/8
80%4/5
0%0/3
Mirageban
49%30/61
63%36/57
n/a
n/a
50%6/12
83%5/6
17%1/6
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
47%84/180
34%57/166
67%16/24
47%8/17
47%16/34
69%11/16
12%2/17
25%1/4
100%1/1
67%2/3
Cacheban
53%23/43
46%27/59
n/a
n/a
50%5/10
100%5/5
0%0/5
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
5star wins more pistol rounds: 56% vs 42%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → 5star usually win the next round too (89% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → 5star fight back to win the next round more often (7% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
5star
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i12/47 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 47 maps they won, 12 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs Alter EgoMiragefrom 6 downvs NEXVOIDNukefrom 5 downvs Rare AtomDust2from 5 downvs Chinggis WarriorsInfernofrom 4 downvs BMZAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/41 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 41 maps they lost, 11 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16vs KaleidoAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs FlyQuestDust2led 5 · lost 7-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs NEXVOIDAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Alter EgoMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDNukeled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs BMZAncient25-22vs NEXVOIDNuke13-16vs Rare AtomInferno16-13vs FlyQuestAncient16-13vs Alter EgoAnubis16-14
Vitalem Aerem
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/6 (17%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 1 (17%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 17% of their wins were comebacks, not 17% of all games.vs BanzaiAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/6 (17%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 1 (17%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BanzaiAnubisfrom 4 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
5star vs Vitalem Aerem FAQ
Who is favored to win 5star vs Vitalem Aerem?
5star are favored with a 61% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for 5star vs Vitalem Aerem?
Bookmakers price 5star at 1.32 and Vitalem Aerem at 2.94 (implied 69% vs 31%).
When do 5star and Vitalem Aerem play?
5star vs Vitalem Aerem is scheduled for 2026-08-27 13:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1.