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Shimmer vs Elusive: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1

Shimmer
2026-08-27 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1
Elusive
Our model gives Elusive a 71% chance to beat Shimmer at ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1. Limited data on this matchup, so the read stays close to the market. Bookmakers price Shimmer at 10.97 and Elusive at 1.02 (implied 9% vs 91%).
Shimmer
10.97odds
Elusive
1.02odds
Our read thin29%
71%
Market9%
91%
median decimal odds · 2 booksBookmakerSHIELUSweatbet 10.971.02Thunderpick Row10.971.02
FormatBO3Form2-7 · 0-1PistolsElusive 100%Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Nuke
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.

Recent form

Shimmer

Iowa Stormboar1d ago0-2MIBR feOvertimeOT2mo ago1-3Atrix2mo ago2-1FarmVilleOvertimeOT4mo ago0-2OverKnightPistolsPist4/44mo ago2-0Aether4mo ago0-2insane playersStompStomp2-135mo ago0-2900FPSvsECOPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT5mo ago0-2InControlOvertimeOT5mo ago0-2

Elusive

Marsborne1d ago0-2

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.

Firepower

roster ratings

Shimmer · avg 1.01 · top +0.09

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
empathy210.9886.669%48%1.1
Juna21.1478.366%60%1.04
alicerawr210.9868.868.9%39%1.02
AVA174140.7766.465.9%51%0.95
Stx210.8170.967.2%52%0.93

Elusive · avg 0.84 · top +0.11

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
sayN2171.878.2%46%0.95
Austin20.8769.359.9%56%0.94
Jonji20.7362.167.6%54%0.86
FRIZZY20.7866.969.5%50%0.83
Msaia20.615063.8%28%0.6

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Shimmer vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSHIELU
AnubisSHI ban n/a0g n/a0g
Shimmer on Anubis
no recent maps
Elusive on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2ELU ban 20%1-4 n/a0g
Shimmer on Dust2
LIowa Stormboar8–131d agoLMIBR fe10–132mo agoWAtrix13–112mo agoLFarmVille14–164mo agoL900FPSvsECO7–135mo ago
Elusive on Dust2
no recent maps
MirageSHI pick 33%2-4 n/a0g
Shimmer on Mirage
WAtrix13–82mo agoLFarmVille6–134mo agoWOverKnight13–74mo agoLAether10–134mo agoLinsane players5–135mo agoL900FPSvsECO18–225mo ago
Elusive on Mirage
no recent maps
AncientELU pick 33%1-2 0%0-1
Shimmer on Ancient
WMIBR fe13–92mo agoLAtrix6–132mo agoLAether7–134mo ago
Elusive on Ancient
LMarsborne10–131d ago
InfernoSHI ban 0%0-3 0%0-1
Shimmer on Inferno
LMIBR fe4–132mo agoLinsane players2–135mo agoLInControl8–135mo ago
Elusive on Inferno
LMarsborne6–131d ago
CacheELU ban n/a0g n/a0g
Shimmer on Cache
no recent maps
Elusive on Cache
no recent maps
Nukedecider 25%1-3 n/a0g
Shimmer on Nuke
LIowa Stormboar7–131d agoLMIBR fe21–252mo agoWOverKnight13–104mo agoLInControl13–165mo ago
Elusive on Nuke
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Shimmer Anubis · Elusive Anubis.

Map lab

Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.

Shimmer51%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: Shimmer 50% toss-up · Ancient: Shimmer 51% toss-up · Nuke: Shimmer 50% toss-upWhyShimmer hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesShimmer 51%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 25%  ·  Elusive 49%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 24%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Shimmer 51%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Shimmer only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.49% Elusive
Mirage
Shimmer50%
Elusive50%
thin sample, read with caution
2-4record0-0
33%win–
50%CT win–
44%T win–
58%pistol–
100%convert–
Ancient
Shimmer51%
Elusive49%
1-2record0-1
33%win0%
35%CT win55%
50%T win33%
50%pistol100%
67%convert100%
Nuke
Shimmer50%
Elusive50%
thin sample, read with caution
1-3record0-0
25%win–
38%CT win–
59%T win–
50%pistol–
100%convert–

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
SHIct
SHIt
ELUct
ELUt
SHIpistol
SHIconv
SHIeco
ELUpistol
ELUconv
ELUeco
Miragepool
50%33/66
44%26/59
n/a
n/a
58%7/12
100%7/7
20%1/5
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientpool
35%11/31
50%15/30
55%6/11
33%4/12
50%3/6
67%2/3
0%0/3
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
Nukepool
38%18/47
59%26/44
n/a
n/a
50%4/8
100%4/4
0%0/4
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
53%30/57
36%20/55
n/a
n/a
40%4/10
75%3/4
0%0/6
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
41%7/17
19%7/36
25%3/12
43%3/7
17%1/6
100%1/1
0%0/5
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Elusive wins more pistol rounds: 100% vs 54%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Elusive usually win the next round too (100% vs 93%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Shimmer

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/5 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 1 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs AtrixDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/16 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 6 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MIBR feNukeled 5 · lost 21-25vs Iowa StormboarDust2led 4 · lost 8-13vs 900FPSvsECOMirageled 3 · lost 18-22vs 900FPSvsECODust2led 3 · lost 7-13vs FarmVilleDust2led 3 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AtrixDust2from 3 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MIBR feNukeled 5 · lost 21-25
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs InControlNuke13-16vs 900FPSvsECOMirage18-22vs FarmVilleDust214-16vs MIBR feNuke21-25

Elusive

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/2 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 1 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample

Shimmer vs Elusive FAQ

Who is favored to win Shimmer vs Elusive?

Elusive are favored with a 71% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Shimmer vs Elusive?

Bookmakers price Shimmer at 10.97 and Elusive at 1.02 (implied 9% vs 91%).

When do Shimmer and Elusive play?

Shimmer vs Elusive is scheduled for 2026-08-27 01:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1.

Shimmer vs Elusive Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER