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Matches / Upcoming / Astralis vs Alliance

Astralis vs Alliance: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · Stake Ranked Episode 4

Astralis
World #11 · 31-26
VS
2026-10-01 15:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
Alliance
World #21 · 56-25
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
48%
Win probability
52%
66%
1.42.76Market · 2 booksBookmakerASTALLGGBet1.42.76Sweatbet 1.42.76
34%
The call

Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean Astralis at 66%. Strength slightly favours Alliance, record slightly favours Alliance, form slightly favours Alliance, firepower clearly favours Astralis.

Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Nuke

Firepower

roster ratings

Astralis · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
Staehr★1.0782.172.5%58%1.21
jabbi1.0475.372.3%61%1.15
phzy1.171.371.5%30%1.11
ryu0.9971.273.4%52%1.07
HooXi0.7861.668.5%55%0.91

Alliance · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
eraa★1.3279.474.9%33%1.2
bobeksde1.0682.272.1%61%1.18
avid1.0576.974.8%54%1.15
twist0.9571.673.7%52%1.07
upE0.9265.872.3%62%1.02

Recent form

Astralis

5starUpsetUpset6d ago1-2BETBOOMPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT7d ago0-2G2UpsetUpsetComebackCB68d ago2-1G228d ago1-2Ninjas in Pyjamas1mo ago2-1Falcons1mo ago0-2MIBR1mo ago13-6MOUZ2mo ago1-2paiNOvertimeOT2mo ago2-1HOTUStompStomp13-12mo ago2-1HEROIC2mo ago0-2HOTUUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT2mo ago0-2FOKUSPistolsPist5/6StompStomp13-12mo ago2-1Nemesis2mo ago2-1paiN3mo ago0-2

Alliance

MIBR5d ago0-2magicUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/46d ago2-0TYLOOPistolsPist0/4ComebackCB86d ago2-0Legacy7d ago0-2FaZeUpsetUpsetPistolsPist4/48d ago2-0Wildcard2mo ago0-29zOvertimeOT2mo ago1-2Nemesis2mo ago2-19zUpsetUpsetComebackCB62mo ago2-0B8UpsetUpsetPistolsPist2/23mo ago13-6Ninjas in PyjamasPistolsPist2/23mo ago13-3PARIVISION3mo ago4-13MetizportOvertimeOT3mo ago2-1fnaticOvertimeOT3mo ago2-1NexusStompStomp13-13mo ago2-1

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
Legacy#60-40-2
Astralis vs Legacy
May 13LDust28-13Nuke6-13Mar 8LDust27-13Ancient7-13
Alliance vs Legacy
Sep 9LInferno4-13Dust26-13
Aurora#91-42-1
Astralis vs Aurora
Mar 14LNuke13-11Dust22-13Inferno10-13Feb 18LOverpass7-13Dust211-13
Alliance vs Aurora
Apr 1WInferno2-13Anubis13-9Overpass13-11
FaZe#134-12-2
Astralis vs FaZe
Mar 9WDust27-13Ancient13-3Inferno16-14Feb 17WAncient13-5Mirage13-9
Alliance vs FaZe
Sep 8WAncient13-9Nuke13-11May 27LAnubis8-13Nuke6-13
9z#140-13-2
Astralis vs 9z
Jun 6LNuke5-13
Alliance vs 9z
Jul 11LNuke10-13Inferno19-17Ancient7-13Jul 4WDust216-14Inferno13-7
B8#162-11-0
Astralis vs B8
Apr 5WMirage16-12Nuke8-13Ancient13-8
Alliance vs B8
Jul 3WAncient13-6
MIBR#183-00-2
Astralis vs MIBR
Aug 12WInferno13-6Apr 4WMirage13-10Overpass13-5
Alliance vs MIBR
Sep 11LInferno4-13Cache9-13
PARIVISION#192-30-1
Astralis vs PARIVISION
Feb 1WOverpass13-11Dust213-16Ancient13-7Jan 18LDust21-13Ancient8-13
Alliance vs PARIVISION
Jul 1LAncient4-13
GamerLegion#203-42-0
Astralis vs GamerLegion
Jun 6WAncient13-4May 14LMirage3-13Ancient8-13May 2LOverpass8-13Inferno14-16
+1 earlier meeting
Alliance vs GamerLegion
Mar 27WAnubis16-14Inferno13-7

Map lab

Alliance54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Alliance 2-1
If the veto goes
Astralis 46%how the series ends54% Alliance
22%2-024%
24%2-130%
Map 1AncientAstralis pick
Astralis63%21-8vsAlliance37%15-10
72%Win60%
64%CT57%
52%T47%
57%Pistol48%
82%Conv88%
Map 2InfernoAlliance pick
Astralis35%8-6vsAlliance65%30-12
57%Win71%
58%CT55%
51%T56%
54%Pistol54%
80%Conv78%
Map 3Nukedecider
Astralis45%9-10vsAlliance55%16-14
47%Win53%
57%CT53%
43%T48%
45%Pistol57%
76%Conv82%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

AstralisAncientAlliance
64%CT side57%
52%T side47%
57%Pistol48%
82%After win88%
4%After loss31%
AstralisInfernoAlliance
58%CT side55%
51%T side56%
54%Pistol54%
80%After win78%
46%After loss23%
AstralisNukeAlliance
57%CT side53%
43%T side48%
45%Pistol57%
76%After win82%
19%After loss15%
Pistol rounds52% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 23% · Alliance fight back and win the next round more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Astralis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapASTALL
AnubisAST ban0%0-166%19-10
Astralis on Anubis
LBETBOOM8–137d ago
Alliance on Anubis
LMetizport5–133mo agoWfnatic13–43mo agoLNexus9–133mo agoLSharks13–164mo agoW3DMAX13–84mo agoLFaZe8–134mo agoLNuclear TigeRES7–134mo agoWOxuji13–75mo ago
MirageALL ban38%8-130%0-2
Astralis on Mirage
LG217–198d agoLMOUZ9–132mo agoWpaiN16–142mo agoLGamerLegion3–134mo agoWSINNERS13–114mo agoWFUT13–55mo agoLFUT5–135mo agoLEYEBALLERS8–135mo ago
Alliance on Mirage
LENCE5–137mo agoLSINNERS10–137mo ago
AncientAST pick72%21-860%15-10
Astralis on Ancient
W5star13–56d agoLBETBOOM14–167d agoWG213–98d agoWG213–628d agoLFalcons7–131mo agoWMOUZ13–62mo agoWHOTU13–102mo agoLHEROIC10–132mo ago
Alliance on Ancient
Wmagic16–136d agoWTYLOO13–116d agoWFaZe13–98d agoL9z7–132mo agoWNemesis13–72mo agoWB813–63mo agoWNinjas in Pyjamas13–33mo agoLPARIVISION4–133mo ago
InfernoALL pick57%8-671%30-12
Astralis on Inferno
L5star10–136d agoWG213–58d agoLG27–1328d agoLNinjas in Pyjamas10–131mo agoWMIBR13–61mo agoWpaiN19–172mo agoWSINNERS13–84mo agoLGamerLegion14–165mo ago
Alliance on Inferno
LMIBR4–135d agoWmagic13–76d agoWTYLOO13–116d agoLLegacy4–137d agoLWildcard3–132mo agoW9z19–172mo agoWNemesis13–72mo agoW9z13–72mo ago
Dust2AST ban25%6-1865%13-7
Astralis on Dust2
LG26–1328d agoLFalcons11–131mo agoLMOUZ9–132mo agoLHEROIC10–132mo agoLFOKUS10–132mo agoLLegacy8–134mo agoWLiquid13–44mo agoLG25–135mo ago
Alliance on Dust2
LLegacy6–137d agoLWildcard7–132mo agoW9z16–142mo agoLfnatic17–193mo agoWNexus13–33mo agoL3DMAX9–134mo agoLEYEBALLERS5–134mo agoWWalczaki13–104mo ago
CacheALL ban60%3-20%0-1
Astralis on Cache
L5star11–136d agoWNinjas in Pyjamas13–71mo agoWHOTU13–12mo agoLHOTU14–162mo agoWNemesis13–72mo ago
Alliance on Cache
LMIBR9–135d ago
Nukedecider47%9-1053%16-14
Astralis on Nuke
WNinjas in Pyjamas13–31mo agoLpaiN10–132mo agoLHOTU7–132mo agoWFOKUS13–12mo agoLNemesis11–132mo agoLpaiN11–133mo agoLTYLOO6–133mo agoL9z5–133mo ago
Alliance on Nuke
WFaZe13–118d agoL9z10–132mo agoLNemesis8–132mo agoWMetizport19–153mo agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–43mo agoWEAC13–53mo agoWSAAB13–13mo agoLSharks11–134mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: Astralis Anubis · Alliance Mirage.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Astralis

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/68 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 15 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 downvs EYEBALLERSAncientfrom 7 downvs The MongolZAncientfrom 6 downvs FUTNukefrom 6 downvs G2Ancientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/66 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 15 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionInfernoled 8 · lost 14-16vs PARIVISIONDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs BETBOOMAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13vs SpiritOverpassled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs fnaticMirage12-16vs NRGMirage14-16vs SpiritDust213-16vs PARIVISIONDust213-16vs HEROICDust216-13

Alliance

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/106 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 106 maps they won, 28 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 downvs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/66 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 21 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs VP.ProdigyAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13

Astralis vs Alliance FAQ

Who is favored to win Astralis vs Alliance?

Alliance are favored with a 52% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Astralis vs Alliance?

Bookmakers price Astralis at 1.4 and Alliance at 2.76 (implied 66% vs 34%).

When do Astralis and Alliance play?

Astralis vs Alliance is scheduled for 2026-10-01 15:00 UTC at Stake Ranked Episode 4.

Astralis vs Alliance Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER