Matches / Upcoming / Natus Vincere vs Aurora
Natus Vincere vs Aurora: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
Natus Vincere
World #10 · 30-19
VS
2026-09-17 15:00 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
Aurora
World #9 · 35-25
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
54%46%
53%
1.771.98Market · 9 books
47%The call
Natus Vincere are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Aurora. Bookmakers lean Natus Vincere at 53%. Firepower clearly favours Aurora, head-to-head clearly favours Natus Vincere.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Inferno
Firepower
roster ratingsNatus Vincere · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Aurora · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Natus Vincere
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5mo ago Natus Vincere2 : 1
Aurora!6mo ago Natus Vincere2 : 0 Aurora!6mo ago Natus Vincere3 : 1 Aurora!7mo ago Natus Vincere2 : 1 Aurora!
Natus Vincere2 : 1 Aurora!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Natus Vincere2 : 0 Aurora!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Natus Vincere3 : 1 Aurora!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Natus Vincere2 : 1 Aurora!⚠ Different lineup
Aurora
outMAJ3R, soulfly
inJimpphat, kyxsan
Spirit#10-41-2
Aurora vs Spirit
Jun 12LDust213-9Anubis4-13Nuke5-13
Falcons#23-32-1
Aurora vs Falcons
Feb 1WAnubis13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8
MOUZ#31-42-6
Aurora vs MOUZ
May 15LDust211-13Nuke8-13May 12LDust216-14Dust211-13Nuke15-19Apr 14LDust24-13Mirage8-13+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#42-43-6
Aurora vs FURIA
Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13Jun 20LDust29-13Nuke4-13Mar 20WDust216-14Inferno13-6+1 earlier meeting
Vitality#52-90-6
Natus Vincere vs Vitality
May 16WDust211-13Anubis13-11Inferno13-3May 3LNuke12-16Anubis11-13Dust23-13Apr 17LMirage4-13Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#63-64-2
Natus Vincere vs Legacy
Aug 20LInferno9-13Ancient2-13Jun 12WInferno13-4Ancient13-10May 14LInferno11-13Ancient13-8Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
FUT#72-11-2
Natus Vincere vs FUT
Mar 14WMirage13-5Ancient11-13Dust213-7Aurora vs FUT
Feb 14LMirage6-13Anubis16-13Overpass6-13
G2#84-65-4
Natus Vincere vs G2
Aug 30LAncient6-13Inferno10-13Jun 15LDust213-11Inferno14-16Mirage10-13Mar 7LDust213-7Mirage5-13Ancient7-13+1 earlier meeting
Aurora vs G2
Aug 31LAnubis13-7Inferno16-19Mirage1-13Aug 26LInferno5-13Anubis12-16Jun 13WOverpass13-8Anubis13-7+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Aurora62%to win the Bo3 · most likely Aurora 2-0
If the veto goes
Natus Vincere 38%how the series ends62% Aurora
19%2-031%
19%2-131%
Natus Vincere49%17-14vsAurora51%14-11
55%Win56%
58%CT53%
48%T45%
52%Pistol52%
88%Conv77%
Natus Vincere40%7-6vsAurora60%13-7
54%Win65%
47%CT54%
59%T55%
62%Pistol63%
81%Conv92%
Natus Vincere38%12-11vsAurora62%13-7
52%Win65%
52%CT63%
54%T47%
61%Pistol55%
64%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Natus VincereMirageAurora
58%CT side53%
48%T side45%
52%Pistol52%
88%After win77%
17%After loss21%
Natus VincereAnubisAurora
47%CT side54%
59%T side55%
62%Pistol63%
81%After win92%
30%After loss7%
Natus VincereInfernoAurora
52%CT side63%
54%T side47%
61%Pistol55%
64%After win86%
33%After loss44%
Pistol rounds57% · 56% · level, no edge
After a won pistol78% · 85% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 25% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Natus Vincere vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Aurora habitually bans Ancient, Natus Vincere's strongest maps (Nuke, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 53/60), not an opponent read, so expect Natus Vincere to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapNATAUR
NukeNAT ban64%7-450%11-11
AncientAUR ban67%14-70%0-2
MirageNAT pick55%17-1456%14-11
AnubisAUR pick54%7-665%13-7
Dust2NAT ban52%14-1361%19-12
CacheAUR bann/a0g50%2-2
Natus Vincere on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider52%12-1165%13-7
Each team's usual first ban: Natus Vincere Overpass · Aurora Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Natus Vincere
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/71 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 23 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 downvs paiNMiragefrom 8 downvs Passion UAAnubisfrom 6 downvs The MongolZAncientfrom 6 downvs MOUZAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/55 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 13 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16vs FURIANukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs The MongolZMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs FalconsAnubisled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis16-19vs SpiritMirage14-16vs AuroraInferno16-12vs B8Ancient17-19vs B8Mirage16-14
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/81 (21%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 17 (21%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 21% of their wins were comebacks, not 21% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs DENDELEMiragefrom 6 downvs B8Miragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/59 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 27 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
Natus Vincere vs Aurora FAQ
Who is favored to win Natus Vincere vs Aurora?
Natus Vincere are favored with a 54% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Natus Vincere vs Aurora?
Bookmakers price Natus Vincere at 1.77 and Aurora at 1.98 (implied 53% vs 47%).
When do Natus Vincere and Aurora play?
Natus Vincere vs Aurora is scheduled for 2026-09-17 15:00 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026.