CS2OBSERVER
Matches / Upcoming / METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars

METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2

METANOIA Wolves
World #226 · 14-30
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Keyd Stars
World #183 · 45-46
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
32%
Win probability
68%
17%
5.361.12Market · 6 booksBookmakerMETKEY1xBit5.361.121xbet5.361.12ColdBet5.361.12Spinbet5.361.12Vivatbet5.361.12betlabel5.361.12
83%
The call

Keyd Stars are favoured: our model gives them 68% against METANOIA Wolves. Bookmakers lean Keyd Stars at 83%. Strength clearly favours Keyd Stars, record slightly favours Keyd Stars, form slightly favours METANOIA Wolves, firepower slightly favours Keyd Stars.

Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Nuke

Firepower

roster ratings

METANOIA Wolves · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
ALENNNCAR★1.027269.2%35%1.08
spinnie0.9474.866.8%60%1.08
vzn0.8470.266.9%47%0.96
khowy0.860.569.8%64%0.94
Tineu0.7861.863.9%46%0.89

Keyd Stars · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
zede★1.057671.8%63%1.15
ckzao180.871.4%55%1.12
lash1.1672.673%37%1.12
drg0.8368.967.2%54%1.03
xureba0.8968.671%52%1.02

Recent form

METANOIA Wolves

IsurusUpsetUpsetBlew leadBL61d ago2-1Back to Back17d ago0-2ODDIK19d ago0-2QUINTESSÊNCIA1mo ago0-2MEIA NOITEUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT1mo ago2-1paiN AcademyPistolsPist3/41mo ago0-2MEIA NOITE2mo ago0-2Procyon2mo ago2-1BESTIAPistolsPist3/42mo ago0-2Grêmio2mo ago0-2GUARA2mo ago2-1Patins da FerrariStompStomp1-132mo ago0-2MIBR AcademyOvertimeOT3mo ago1-2paiN3mo ago0-2Yawara3mo ago0-2

Keyd Stars

Bounty Hunterstoday0-2Grêmio1d ago2-0ProcyonUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT19d ago0-2IsurusPistolsPist6/6StompStomp13-227d ago1-2FluxoBlew leadBL8OvertimeOT28d ago0-2Yawara29d ago2-1ImperialPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT1mo ago0-2GalorysPistolsPist6/61mo ago2-1Yawara1mo ago2-1paiN AcademyPistolsPist5/61mo ago2-1Galorys1mo ago0-2GrêmioPistolsPist3/42mo ago2-0BORRACHEIROSUpsetUpsetBlew leadBL62mo ago1-2Fluxo2mo ago0-2ALKA2mo ago2-0

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
4mo ago METANOIA Wolves0 : 2 Keyd Stars!
⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outntx, sakamoto
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
4mo ago METANOIA Wolves1 : 2 Keyd Stars!
⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outntx, sakamoto
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
5mo ago METANOIA Wolves2 : 0 Keyd Stars!
⚠ Different lineup
METANOIA Wolves
outThuister, protado
inTineu, khowy
Keyd Stars
outCutzMeretz, matios
inKinGui, ckzao, drg
Imperial#620-12-5
METANOIA Wolves vs Imperial
Apr 24LNuke6-13
Keyd Stars vs Imperial
Aug 16LMirage12-16Inferno7-13Jul 17LMirage10-13Inferno11-13Feb 26WDust213-11Nuke11-13Mirage13-7
BESTIA#650-20-2
METANOIA Wolves vs BESTIA
Aug 5LDust28-13Mirage5-13
Keyd Stars vs BESTIA
Jul 12LAncient11-13Dust29-13
Bounty Hunters#954-26-17
METANOIA Wolves vs Bounty Hunters
May 4LAnubis4-13Ancient7-13Mar 25WDust213-6Mirage13-11Mar 21WDust213-10Nuke19-17
Keyd Stars vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 23LAncient5-13Mirage7-13Jul 15LAncient13-7Nuke11-13Mirage14-16Jul 11WAncient13-11Nuke8-13Mirage13-7
+7 earlier meetings
LP#990-30-2
METANOIA Wolves vs LP
Apr 25LNuke9-13Apr 2LDust211-13Ancient7-13
Keyd Stars vs LP
May 24LDust22-13Nuke4-13
Turma do Pagode#1051-00-1
METANOIA Wolves vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 24WDust219-16
Keyd Stars vs Turma do Pagode
Apr 25LAnubis11-13
ALKA#1222-04-0
METANOIA Wolves vs ALKA
Apr 23WNuke13-9Dust213-7
Keyd Stars vs ALKA
Jul 24WAncient13-9Dust213-6Mar 30WAnubis13-11Nuke13-9
ODDIK#1400-23-3
METANOIA Wolves vs ODDIK
Sep 4LMirage5-13Ancient11-13
Keyd Stars vs ODDIK
Apr 29WNuke13-10Dust29-13Ancient13-7Apr 1LOverpass13-3Nuke10-13Dust23-13
Isurus#1582-15-3
METANOIA Wolves vs Isurus
Sep 22WDust213-7Cache10-13Nuke13-8
Keyd Stars vs Isurus
Aug 27LAncient13-2Inferno10-13Dust26-13May 23WOverpass13-1Ancient4-13Dust213-6Mar 5WDust213-2Mirage13-11

Map lab

Keyd Stars54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Keyd Stars 2-0
If the veto goes
METANOIA Wolves 46%how the series ends54% Keyd Stars
19%2-031%
27%2-123%
Map 1Dust2METANOIA Wolv… pick
METANOIA Wolves51%17-16vsKeyd Stars49%28-27
52%Win51%
54%CT52%
51%T50%
55%Pistol54%
81%Conv80%
Map 2AncientKeyd Stars pick
METANOIA Wolves37%7-10vsKeyd Stars63%19-15
41%Win56%
52%CT56%
42%T48%
59%Pistol49%
70%Conv79%
Map 3Nukedecider
METANOIA Wolves54%6-8vsKeyd Stars46%14-22
43%Win39%
48%CT48%
42%T43%
54%Pistol44%
80%Conv88%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

METANOIA WolvesDust2Keyd Stars
54%CT side52%
51%T side50%
55%Pistol54%
81%After win80%
13%After loss24%
METANOIA WolvesAncientKeyd Stars
52%CT side56%
42%T side48%
59%Pistol49%
70%After win79%
0%After loss20%
METANOIA WolvesNukeKeyd Stars
48%CT side48%
42%T side43%
54%Pistol44%
80%After win88%
0%After loss5%
Pistol rounds55% · 50% · METANOIA Wolves win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 81% · Keyd Stars keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol7% · 17% · Keyd Stars fight back and win the next round more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, METANOIA Wolves vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMETKEY
MirageMET ban9%1-1053%26-23
METANOIA Wolves on Mirage
LBack to Back4–1317d agoLODDIK5–1319d agoLQUINTESSÊNCIA11–131mo agoLMEIA NOITE20–221mo agoLMEIA NOITE6–132mo agoLBESTIA5–132mo agoLGUARA6–132mo agoLPatins da Ferrari1–132mo ago
Keyd Stars on Mirage
LBounty Hunters7–13todayLFluxo4–1328d agoWYawara13–829d agoLImperial12–161mo agoWYawara13–41mo agoLpaiN Academy3–131mo agoWGrêmio13–102mo agoWBORRACHEIROS13–82mo ago
InfernoKEY ban31%5-1129%2-5
METANOIA Wolves on Inferno
LProcyon9–132mo agoLpaiN4–133mo agoLYawara7–133mo agoWMAGICOS13–63mo agoLpaiN Academy10–134mo agoLVasco9–135mo agoWVasco13–95mo agoLRED Canids6–136mo ago
Keyd Stars on Inferno
WGrêmio13–111d agoLProcyon14–1619d agoLIsurus10–1327d agoLImperial7–131mo agoWGrêmio13–42mo agoLImperial11–132mo agoLGameHunters5–133mo ago
Dust2MET pick52%17-1651%28-27
METANOIA Wolves on Dust2
WIsurus13–71d agoLBack to Back7–1317d agoLQUINTESSÊNCIA11–131mo agoWMEIA NOITE13–71mo agoLpaiN Academy7–131mo agoLMEIA NOITE11–132mo agoWProcyon13–62mo agoLBESTIA8–132mo ago
Keyd Stars on Dust2
WGrêmio13–111d agoLIsurus6–1327d agoLYawara11–1329d agoWGalorys13–71mo agoLYawara10–131mo agoLGalorys10–131mo agoWALKA13–62mo agoLBESTIA9–132mo ago
AncientKEY pick41%7-1056%19-15
METANOIA Wolves on Ancient
LODDIK11–1319d agoWMEIA NOITE16–121mo agoWProcyon13–82mo agoWGUARA13–72mo agoLPatins da Ferrari9–132mo agoWMIBR Academy19–173mo agoLKeyd Stars2–134mo agoWKeyd Stars13–14mo ago
Keyd Stars on Ancient
LBounty Hunters5–13todayLProcyon11–1319d agoWIsurus13–227d agoWYawara13–729d agoLGalorys11–131mo agoWYawara13–111mo agoLGalorys8–131mo agoLBORRACHEIROS14–162mo ago
AnubisMET ban20%1-462%8-5
METANOIA Wolves on Anubis
LYawara8–133mo agoLpaiN Academy6–134mo agoLBounty Hunters4–135mo agoWKeyd Stars13–85mo agoLpaiN Academy8–136mo ago
Keyd Stars on Anubis
WGalorys13–71mo agoWpaiN Academy13–61mo agoLBORRACHEIROS6–132mo agoWYawara13–93mo agoWYawara13–113mo agoLpaiN Academy10–134mo agoWpaiN Academy13–95mo agoWMIBR Academy13–85mo ago
CacheKEY ban0%0-40%0-1
METANOIA Wolves on Cache
LIsurus10–131d agoLpaiN Academy11–131mo agoLMIBR Academy9–133mo agoLGUARA11–133mo ago
Keyd Stars on Cache
LBounty Hunters9–133mo ago
Nukedecider43%6-839%14-22
METANOIA Wolves on Nuke
WIsurus13–81d agoLGrêmio3–132mo agoLMIBR Academy6–133mo agoWR213–64mo agoLKeyd Stars11–134mo agoWGUARA16–134mo agoLLP9–135mo agoLImperial6–135mo ago
Keyd Stars on Nuke
LFluxo12–1628d agoWpaiN Academy13–41mo agoLFluxo9–132mo agoLBounty Hunters11–132mo agoLBounty Hunters8–132mo agoWMIBR Academy13–93mo agoLFluxo9–133mo agoLUNO MILLE9–133mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: METANOIA Wolves Mirage · Keyd Stars Inferno.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

METANOIA Wolves

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/37 (24%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 37 maps they won, 9 (24%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 24% of their wins were comebacks, not 24% of all games.vs GUARADust2from 10 downvs GUARANukefrom 5 downvs MAGICOSInfernofrom 4 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/64 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 17 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs LPAncientled 5 · lost 7-13vs Keyd StarsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs ImperialNukeled 4 · lost 6-13vs LPNukeled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GUARADust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GUARACacheled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs Bounty HuntersNuke19-17vs VascoAncient13-16vs Turma do PagodeDust219-16vs GUARANuke16-13vs MAGICOSDust219-22

Keyd Stars

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/101 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 28 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i36/106 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 36 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19

METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars FAQ

Who is favored to win METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars?

Keyd Stars are favored with a 68% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars?

Bookmakers price METANOIA Wolves at 5.36 and Keyd Stars at 1.12 (implied 17% vs 83%).

When do METANOIA Wolves and Keyd Stars play?

METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars is scheduled for 2026-09-23 21:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2.

METANOIA Wolves vs Keyd Stars Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER