Matches / Upcoming / THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
World #121 · 40-12
VS
2026-09-25 09:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
Ground Zero
World #119 · 39-30
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · Best of 3
69%31%
74%
1.253.49Market · 2 books
26%The call
THUNDER dOWNUNDER are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Ground Zero. Bookmakers lean THUNDER dOWNUNDER at 74%. Strength slightly favours THUNDER dOWNUNDER, record slightly favours THUNDER dOWNUNDER, form slightly favours THUNDER dOWNUNDER, firepower clearly favours THUNDER dOWNUNDER, head-to-head clearly favours THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Inferno
Firepower
roster ratingsTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · avg 1.19 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gratisfaction★ | 1.6 | 85.2 | 77.8% | 31% | 1.33 |
| Liazz | 1.27 | 79.2 | 77.8% | 51% | 1.28 |
| viridian | 1.11 | 64.4 | 82.2% | 50% | 1.14 |
| TjP | 0.97 | 72.7 | 73.2% | 56% | 1.1 |
| dexter | 1 | 79.2 | 70.5% | 56% | 1.09 |
Ground Zero · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.19iStar gap: the best player rates 0.19 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents22d ago
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0
Ground Zero!24d ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!2mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER1 : 2 Ground Zero!2mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!5mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!5mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!6mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!6mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!7mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!7mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!7mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!7mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!7mo ago THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outasap
indexter
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outasap
indexter
THUNDER dOWNUNDER1 : 2 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outtucks
invision
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outtucks
invision
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outpz, tucks
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outpz, tucks
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 1 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
THUNDER dOWNUNDER2 : 0 Ground Zero!⚠ Different lineup
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
outaliStair, asap
inGratisfaction, viridian
Ground Zero
outdamyo, pz
inhazr, sliimey
Lynn Vision#331-20-4
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Lynn Vision
May 16LDust213-9Nuke10-13Inferno5-13
FlyQuest#930-40-4
Abyssal#1504-114-7
Ground Zero vs Abyssal
Sep 23WInferno13-11Nuke13-10Aug 13WAncient13-1Anubis13-8Aug 11LAncient7-13Dust29-13+6 earlier meetings
Kaleido#1622-10-2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Kaleido
May 14WAnubis13-5Ancient13-16Inferno16-12Ground Zero vs Kaleido
May 25LMirage2-13Dust26-13
Rooster#1656-017-6
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Rooster
Jul 17WAnubis13-4Nuke13-0Feb 8WOverpass13-6Nuke13-10Jan 31WAnubis13-4Nuke13-1Ground Zero vs Rooster
Aug 28WAnubis13-4Nuke19-15Jun 18LNuke13-2Anubis11-13Mirage11-13Jun 16WMirage13-10Dust216-13+7 earlier meetings
Mindfreak#19011-316-7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Mindfreak
Aug 28WInferno13-8Anubis13-5Jul 17WInferno13-5Mar 14WAnubis13-10Inferno13-5+4 earlier meetings
Ground Zero vs Mindfreak
Aug 12WInferno13-6Dust213-6Aug 10WNuke13-10Anubis13-4Jul 18WInferno9-13Anubis13-9Nuke13-7+6 earlier meetings
Arcade#1983-05-3
Ground Zero vs Arcade
Aug 31WNuke13-3Jul 17WMirage10-13Dust213-6Nuke13-7Jul 17WDust213-7+1 earlier meeting
SemperFi8-60-5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs SemperFi
May 27LDust29-13Nuke10-13May 13WInferno13-4Nuke16-13Mar 17WAncient13-10Inferno16-13+3 earlier meetings
Map lab
THUNDER dOWNUNDER76%to win the Bo3 · most likely THUNDER dOWNUNDER 2-0
If the veto goes
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 76%how the series ends24% Ground Zero
50%2-07%
26%2-117%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER60%22-7vsGround Zero40%24-12
76%Win67%
70%CT62%
49%T47%
62%Pistol51%
86%Conv84%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER83%18-4vsGround Zero17%14-18
82%Win44%
62%CT45%
63%T50%
59%Pistol47%
88%Conv80%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER60%20-8vsGround Zero40%16-10
71%Win62%
61%CT50%
57%T50%
59%Pistol46%
79%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeGround Zero
70%CT side62%
49%T side47%
62%Pistol51%
86%After win84%
0%After loss17%
THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubisGround Zero
62%CT side45%
63%T side50%
59%Pistol47%
88%After win80%
28%After loss15%
THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoGround Zero
61%CT side50%
57%T side50%
59%Pistol46%
79%After win83%
39%After loss15%
Pistol rounds60% · 48% · THUNDER dOWNUNDER win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol22% · 16% · THUNDER dOWNUNDER fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, THUNDER dOWNUNDER vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTHUGRO
MirageTHU bann/a0g55%12-10
THUNDER dOWNUNDER on Mirage
no recent maps
AncientGRO ban56%5-450%2-2
NukeTHU pick76%22-767%24-12
AnubisGRO pick82%18-444%14-18
Dust2THU ban67%10-542%14-19
CacheGRO bann/a0gn/a0g
THUNDER dOWNUNDER on Cache
no recent maps
Ground Zero on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider71%20-862%16-10
Each team's usual first ban: THUNDER dOWNUNDER Mirage · Ground Zero Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/79 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 23 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 downvs Ground ZeroDust2from 7 downvs AbyssalInfernofrom 6 downvs MindfreakInfernofrom 5 downvs Ground ZeroNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/31 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 31 maps they lost, 14 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Ground ZeroNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs AbyssalOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs Ground ZeroAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs Haunted HouseDust2led 5 · lost 17-19vs SemperFiDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AbyssalNukefrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Ground ZeroNukeled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs McNuke16-14vs AbyssalNuke16-12vs Ground ZeroAnubis16-19vs Ground ZeroNuke22-20vs SemperFiAncient16-19
Ground Zero
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/83 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 30 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 downvs 11minsDust2from 9 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukefrom 8 downvs LFO 8Ancientfrom 8 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/73 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 73 maps they lost, 15 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 5 · lost 20-22vs MindfreakInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs UndergroundMirage16-13vs MindfreakMirage19-15vs RoosterNuke16-14vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubis19-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke20-22
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero FAQ
Who is favored to win THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero?
THUNDER dOWNUNDER are favored with a 69% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero?
Bookmakers price THUNDER dOWNUNDER at 1.25 and Ground Zero at 3.49 (implied 74% vs 26%).
When do THUNDER dOWNUNDER and Ground Zero play?
THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero is scheduled for 2026-09-25 09:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2.