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Predictions / Lavked vs Leo · match preview
Lavked vs Leo: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
LAV
Lavked
World #124 · 55-42
VS
2026-09-07 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
Leo
World #132 · 43-43
54%46%
47%
1.971.72Market · 2 books
53%The call
Lavked are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Leo. Bookmakers lean Leo at 53%. Firepower slightly favours Leo, head-to-head slightly favours Lavked.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LavkedpullLeo
Team strength1513
152853/47 LEO
Track record55–42
43–4356/44 LAV
Recent formWWLLL
WWLLW52/48 LEO
Roster rating1.09
1.158/42 LEO
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 LAV
Bookmakers imply 47% for Lavked (1.97 / 1.72); we land 7 points higher at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (233 maps of Lavked, 215 of Leo). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Lavked leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Lavked to beat Leo, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Lavked
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Leo
100 Thieves#333-21-2
Leo vs 100 Thieves
Jun 18LNuke13-5Dust210-13Ancient12-16
fnatic#384-31-2
1win#431-20-2
Lavked vs 1win
Jun 3LOverpass8-13Mirage13-8Anubis8-13Leo vs 1win
Jan 31LInferno9-13Ancient8-13
GenOne#534-12-5
Nuclear TigeRES#540-42-0
Leo vs Nuclear TigeRES
Feb 18WDust219-16Ancient13-5
Phantom#565-54-5
Bushido Wildcats#691-25-3
Lavked vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 22LNuke8-13Mirage13-10Dust24-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#742-32-2
Firepower
roster ratingsLavked · avg 1.09 · top +0.09
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| azukay | 21 | 1.11 | 77.3 | 74.3% | 63% | 1.18 |
| xm1nd | 207 | 1.17 | 72.5 | 72.4% | 37% | 1.11 |
| k4nfuz | 202 | 1 | 68.6 | 72.8% | 66% | 1.09 |
| 1NVISIBLEE | 231 | 0.9 | 80 | 68% | 58% | 1.07 |
| sol | 232 | 0.91 | 67.1 | 71.7% | 52% | 1.02 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Lavked vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLAVLEO
InfernoLAV ban21%3-1146%6-7
MirageLEO ban58%38-2850%5-5
NukeLAV pick60%30-2058%21-15
Dust2LEO pick52%22-2058%34-25
CacheLAV ban0%0-133%1-2
Lavked on Cache
L
megoshort14–161mo agoAnubisLEO ban47%8-932%12-25
Ancientdecider64%21-1247%18-20
Each team's usual first ban: Lavked Inferno · Leo Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Lavked56%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Lavked 52% toss-up · Dust2: Leo 55% toss-up · Ancient: Lavked 65% clearWhyLavked hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesLavked 56%: 2-1 33%, 2-0 23% · Leo 44%: 2-0 27%, 2-1 17%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Lavked 56%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Lavked only lead because their Ancient is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.44% Leo
Nuke
Lavked52%Leo48%
30-20record21-15
60%win58%
57%CT win57%
47%T win49%
47%pistol57%
85%convert80%
Dust2
Lavked45%Leo55%
22-20record34-25
52%win58%
52%CT win53%
52%T win53%
50%pistol52%
81%convert82%
Ancient
Lavked65%Leo35%
21-12record18-20
64%win47%
53%CT win51%
55%T win48%
55%pistol33%
86%convert88%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
LAVct
LAVt
LEOct
LEOt
LAVpistol
LAVconv
LAVeco
LEOpistol
LEOconv
LEOeco
Nukepool
57%271/476
47%239/512
57%213/374
49%181/367
47%47/100
85%39/46
17%9/53
57%41/72
80%33/41
13%4/31
Dust2pool
52%239/460
52%201/390
53%315/596
53%327/622
50%42/84
81%34/42
19%8/42
52%61/118
82%50/61
18%10/57
Ancientpool
53%174/330
55%196/355
51%193/382
48%182/382
55%36/66
86%31/36
23%7/30
33%25/76
88%22/25
8%4/50
Infernoban
45%70/156
33%35/107
48%74/153
54%61/112
39%11/28
64%7/11
12%2/17
54%14/26
86%12/14
33%4/12
Mirageban
56%380/676
47%360/766
55%65/119
35%31/89
47%62/132
79%49/62
14%10/70
50%10/20
80%8/10
10%1/10
Cacheban
75%9/12
25%3/12
51%18/35
52%13/25
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
50%3/6
100%3/3
33%1/3
Anubisban
45%81/179
48%81/168
42%150/353
47%194/410
56%19/34
68%13/19
13%2/15
45%33/74
82%27/33
17%7/41
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Lavked 50%, Leo 48%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (84% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → Lavked fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 13%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Lavked
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/125 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 125 maps they won, 45 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-RUBYNukefrom 7 downvs OLDBOYS PLMiragefrom 7 downvs UNiTYMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/106 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 27 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16vs ARCREDMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs UNiTYMirageled 8 · lost 7-13vs SPARTAInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs fnaticMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs ex-RUBYAncient16-14vs ESCAncient13-16vs PhantomMirage16-14vs K27Dust212-16vs QUAZARNuke12-16
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/100 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 26 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/101 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 101 maps they lost, 33 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs MisaDust2led 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16