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Predictions / XI vs ex-VP.Prodigy · match preview
XI vs ex-VP.Prodigy: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
XI
World #– · 4-8
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
ex-VP.Prodigy
World #– · 20-19
38%62%
27%
3.41.26Market · 3 books
73%The call
ex-VP.Prodigy are favoured: our model gives them 62% against XI. Bookmakers lean ex-VP.Prodigy at 73%. Strength slightly favours ex-VP.Prodigy, record slightly favours ex-VP.Prodigy, form slightly favours XI, firepower clearly favours ex-VP.Prodigy.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
XIpullex-VP.Prodigy
Team strength1440
149161/39 EX-
Track record4–8
20–1966/34 EX-
Recent formLLLLW
LLLLL60/40 XI
Roster rating0.94
191/9 EX-
Bookmakers imply 27% for XI (3.4 / 1.26); we land 11 points higher at 38%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 86% our own signal (26 maps of XI, 97 of ex-VP.Prodigy).
Bottom line: ex-VP.Prodigy to beat XI, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Rebels1-22-1
XI vs Rebels
Apr 19LDust24-13Nuke13-10Overpass8-13ex-VP.Prodigy vs Rebels
Feb 15WOverpass13-5Nuke4-13Dust219-15
Clutchain2-11-2
XI vs Clutchain
Jun 8WAncient6-13ex-VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain
Jun 5LDust213-10Nuke9-13Ancient11-13Firepower
roster ratingsXI · avg 0.94 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, XI vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapXIEX-
InfernoXI ban0%0-233%3-6
AncientEX- ban25%2-650%5-5
NukeXI pick63%5-358%14-10
Dust2EX- pick33%1-250%10-10
MirageXI bann/a0g40%4-6
XI on Mirage
no recent maps
AnubisEX- ban50%1-167%4-2
Cachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
XI on Cache
no recent maps
ex-VP.Prodigy on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: XI Mirage · ex-VP.Prodigy Ancient.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-VP.Prodigy51%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: XI 52% toss-up · Dust2: ex-VP.Prodigy 55% toss-up · Cache: ex-VP.Prodigy 50% toss-upWhyex-VP.Prodigy hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesXI 49%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 24% · ex-VP.Prodigy 51%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
XI 49%It’s nearly a coin-flip. ex-VP.Prodigy only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.51% ex-VP.Prodigy
Nuke
XI52%ex-VP.Prodigy48%
5-3record14-10
63%win58%
62%CT win59%
40%T win47%
63%pistol58%
80%convert82%
Dust2
XI45%ex-VP.Prodigy55%
1-2record10-10
33%win50%
42%CT win46%
48%T win53%
33%pistol58%
100%convert96%
Cache
XI50%ex-VP.Prodigy50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record0-0
–win–
–CT win–
–T win–
–pistol–
–convert–
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
XIct
XIt
EX-ct
EX-t
XIpistol
XIconv
XIeco
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
Nukepool
62%58/93
40%33/82
59%149/254
47%122/259
63%10/16
80%8/10
0%0/6
58%28/48
82%23/28
15%3/20
Dust2pool
42%15/36
48%12/25
46%99/214
53%114/216
33%2/6
100%2/2
25%1/4
58%23/40
96%22/23
24%4/17
Cachepool
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
33%8/24
17%2/12
44%47/108
37%22/60
0%0/4
n/a
25%1/4
44%8/18
88%7/8
40%4/10
Ancientban
43%35/81
43%38/88
40%47/118
55%60/109
63%10/16
90%9/10
0%0/6
55%11/20
91%10/11
11%1/9
Mirageban
n/a
n/a
56%62/111
48%45/93
n/a
n/a
n/a
70%14/20
93%13/14
33%2/6
Anubisban
22%4/18
73%11/15
37%24/65
62%39/63
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
25%3/12
67%2/3
22%2/9
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ex-VP.Prodigy wins more pistol rounds: 58% vs 55%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → ex-VP.Prodigy usually win the next round too (88% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → ex-VP.Prodigy fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 10%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
XI
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/9 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 6 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs BERGNukefrom 7 downvs NEW VISIONNukefrom 5 downvs RebelsNukefrom 4 downvs Sashi AcademyNukefrom 3 downvs LFO 6Ancientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/17 (12%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 17 maps they lost, 2 (12%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs TNCAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs MASQNukeled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BERGNukefrom 7 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs TNCAncientled 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Sashi AcademyAncient13-16vs B8 AcademyNuke12-16
ex-VP.Prodigy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/50 (42%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 21 (42%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 42% of their wins were comebacks, not 42% of all games.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs MASONICOverpassfrom 5 downvs MASONICAnubisfrom 5 downvs LAGUNANukefrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/47 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 16 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyDust2led 7 · lost 17-19vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs WHITEBIRDMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs ReThinkAncientled 5 · lost 13-16vs MetizportOverpassled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyDust2led 7 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke12-16vs PhantomOverpass19-22vs EnjoyDust217-19vs AllianceAnubis16-14vs RebelsDust219-15