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Predictions / Banda Chuya vs JUMBO · match preview
Banda Chuya vs JUMBO: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
BAN
Banda Chuya
World #– · 0-4
VS
2026-09-09 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
JUMBO
World #– · 1-5
49%51%
46%
1.991.71Market · 1 books
54%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 49–51. Bookmakers lean JUMBO at 54%. Record clearly favours JUMBO, form slightly favours JUMBO.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Banda ChuyapullJUMBO
Team strength1437
146255/45 JUM
Track record0–4
1–577/23 JUM
Recent formLLLL
LLLLW60/40 JUM
Roster rating0.92
0.9251/49 JUM
Bookmakers imply 46% for Banda Chuya (1.99 / 1.71); we land 3 points higher at 49%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 68% our own signal (8 maps of Banda Chuya, 13 of JUMBO).
Bottom line: JUMBO to beat Banda Chuya, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsBanda Chuya · avg 0.92 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Banda Chuya vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBANJUM
InfernoBAN bann/a0gn/a0g
Banda Chuya on Inferno
no recent maps
JUMBO on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisJUM ban0%0-1n/a0g
Banda Chuya on Anubis
LThe Boys5–132mo agoJUMBO on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientBAN pick0%0-133%1-2
Banda Chuya on Ancient
L
mellren9–131mo agoDust2JUM pick0%0-140%2-3
Banda Chuya on Dust2
LDark Moon5–132d agoMirageBAN ban0%0-40%0-3
NukeJUM ban0%0-10%0-2
Banda Chuya on Nuke
L
Young TigeRES10–131mo agoCachedecidern/a0gn/a0g
Banda Chuya on Cache
no recent maps
JUMBO on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Banda Chuya Dust2 · JUMBO Overpass.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
JUMBO51%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: JUMBO 51% toss-up · Dust2: JUMBO 52% toss-up · Cache: JUMBO 50% toss-upWhyJUMBO hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesBanda Chuya 49%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 24% · JUMBO 51%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Banda Chuya 49%It’s nearly a coin-flip. JUMBO only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.51% JUMBO
Ancient
Banda Chuya49%JUMBO51%
0-1record1-2
0%win33%
50%CT win62%
33%T win33%
100%pistol83%
100%convert80%
Dust2
Banda Chuya48%JUMBO52%
0-1record2-3
0%win40%
33%CT win51%
17%T win45%
0%pistol40%
–convert100%
Cache
Banda Chuya50%JUMBO50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record0-0
–win–
–CT win–
–T win–
–pistol–
–convert–
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
BANct
BANt
JUMct
JUMt
BANpistol
BANconv
BANeco
JUMpistol
JUMconv
JUMeco
Ancientpool
50%5/10
33%4/12
62%21/34
33%12/36
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
83%5/6
80%4/5
0%0/1
Dust2pool
33%4/12
17%1/6
51%26/51
45%24/53
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
40%4/10
100%4/4
17%1/6
Cachepool
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
17%1/6
33%4/12
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
45%20/44
33%14/42
47%14/30
12%3/26
50%4/8
50%2/4
25%1/4
17%1/6
100%1/1
0%0/5
Nukeban
45%5/11
42%5/12
12%2/17
31%5/16
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
JUMBO wins more pistol rounds: 56% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Banda Chuya usually win the next round too (100% vs 89%). Lose the pistol → Banda Chuya fight back to win the next round more often (50% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Banda Chuya
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/8 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 3 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The BoysMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Young TigeRESMirageled 4 · lost 6-13vs mellrenAncientled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The BoysMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
JUMBO
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs GluckAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/10 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 4 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 1winDust2led 5 · lost 8-13vs MisaDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs BET-MAncientled 3 · lost 11-13vs 1winMirageled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GluckAncientfrom 3 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 1winDust2led 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample