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Predictions / BERG vs OLDBOYS PL · match preview
BERG vs OLDBOYS PL: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
BERG
World #216 · 8-14
VS
2026-09-16 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
OLDBOYS PL
World #– · 13-6
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
40%60%
29%
3.231.31Market · 7 books
71%The call
OLDBOYS PL are favoured: our model gives them 60% against BERG. Bookmakers lean OLDBOYS PL at 71%. Strength clearly favours OLDBOYS PL, record clearly favours OLDBOYS PL.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BERGpullOLDBOYS PL
Team strength1451
155170/30 OLD
Track record8–14
13–671/29 OLD
Recent formWLLWL
WLWLW55/45 OLD
Roster rating1.051.1150/50
Bookmakers imply 29% for BERG (3.23 / 1.31); we land 11 points higher at 40%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (41 maps of BERG, 48 of OLDBOYS PL).
Bottom line: OLDBOYS PL to beat BERG, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBERG · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
OLDBOYS PL · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BERG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Falcons Force#1310-22-0
BERG vs Falcons Force
Sep 9LInferno9-13Nuke11-13OLDBOYS PL vs Falcons Force
Jun 10WNuke13-10Mirage13-9
BIG Academy0-20-2
BERG vs BIG Academy
Jun 27LAnubis5-13Overpass5-13OLDBOYS PL vs BIG Academy
Apr 27LMirage4-13Dust29-13Map lab
OLDBOYS PL75%to win the Bo3 · most likely OLDBOYS PL 2-0
If the veto goes
BERG 25%how the series ends75% OLDBOYS PL
5%2-054%
21%2-121%
BERG38%5-5vsOLDBOYS PL62%7-4
50%Win64%
54%CT57%
47%T49%
65%Pistol55%
77%Conv92%
BERG12%3-8vsOLDBOYS PL88%9-2
27%Win82%
45%CT72%
40%T47%
55%Pistol55%
75%Conv100%
BERG50%1-0vsOLDBOYS PL50%1-0
100%Win100%
92%CT80%
25%T75%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BERGAncientOLDBOYS PL
54%CT side57%
47%T side49%
65%Pistol55%
77%After win92%
0%After loss10%
BERGNukeOLDBOYS PL
45%CT side72%
40%T side47%
55%Pistol55%
75%After win100%
10%After loss20%
BERGCacheOLDBOYS PL
92%CT side80%
25%T side75%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds59% · 54% · BERG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 96% · OLDBOYS PL keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol6% · 14% · OLDBOYS PL fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BERG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBEROLD
Dust2BER bann/a0g33%2-4
BERG on Dust2
no recent maps
InfernoOLD ban50%3-3100%1-0
BERG on Inferno
LFalcons Force9–137d agoL
mellren9–139d agoW
XI13–411d agoW
666613–113mo agoW
Exilium13–26mo agoL
AaB13–166mo agoOLDBOYS PL on Inferno
W
ROUNDS13–103mo agoAncientBER pick50%5-564%7-4
NukeOLD pick27%3-882%9-2
AnubisBER ban25%1-367%4-2
MirageOLD ban38%3-550%5-5
Cachedecider100%1-0100%1-0
BERG on Cache
WNEXORA13–72d agoOLDBOYS PL on Cache
W
LPH13–42d agoEach team's usual first ban: BERG Dust2 · OLDBOYS PL Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BERG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/16 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 4 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 downvs WBTAncientfrom 4 downvs SINQU REHTIAnubisfrom 3 downvs PrivateerAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/25 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 9 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13vs Mai TaiMirageled 5 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Falcons ForceInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13vs mellrenMirageled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrivateerNukefrom 5 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs XINukeled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi22% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT22% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs AaBInferno13-16vs los kogutosAncient16-13vs mellrenMirage14-16vs PrivateerNuke16-12
OLDBOYS PL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/30 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 10 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 downvs Falcons ForceNukefrom 6 downvs ArchAnubisfrom 5 downvs WBT AcademyNukefrom 5 downvs EnjoyAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/18 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 8 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ArchDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs NAVI JuniorNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs QWENTRYAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs ArchDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs Aurora Young BludMirage16-14vs QWENTRYAncient17-19vs Rune EatersAncient16-14vs DONSTUNuke16-12vs ArchMirage14-16