Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Spirit Academy Green vs OLDBOYS PL · match preview
Spirit Academy Green vs OLDBOYS PL: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe
SPI
Spirit Academy Green
World #– · 2-1
VS
2026-09-18 17:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
OLDBOYS PL
World #– · 14-6
ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · Best of 3
47%53%
33%
2.861.38Market · 7 books
67%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean OLDBOYS PL at 67%. Strength slightly favours OLDBOYS PL, form slightly favours OLDBOYS PL, firepower clearly favours Spirit Academy Green.
Likely mapsAnubis · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Spirit Academy GreenpullOLDBOYS PL
Team strength1511
156261/39 OLD
Track record2–1
14–651/49 OLD
Recent formLWW
WWLWL59/41 OLD
Roster rating1.26
1.1491/9 SPI
Bookmakers imply 33% for Spirit Academy Green (2.86 / 1.38); we land 14 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 63% our own signal (6 maps of Spirit Academy Green, 50 of OLDBOYS PL; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: OLDBOYS PL to beat Spirit Academy Green, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSpirit Academy Green · avg 1.26 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
OLDBOYS PL · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Spirit Academy Green
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Spirit Academy Green50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit Academy Green 2-0
If the veto goes
Spirit Academy Green 50%how the series ends50% OLDBOYS PL
25%2-025%
25%2-125%
Spirit Academy Green51%1-0vsOLDBOYS PL49%4-2
100%Win67%
83%CT49%
50%T61%
50%Pistol25%
0%Conv100%
Spirit Academy Green50%0-0thinOLDBOYS PL50%10-2
–Win83%
–CT72%
–T49%
–Pistol58%
–Conv100%
Spirit Academy Green50%0-0thinOLDBOYS PL50%8-4
–Win67%
–CT58%
–T51%
–Pistol58%
–Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Spirit Academy GreenAnubisOLDBOYS PL
83%CT side49%
50%T side61%
50%Pistol25%
0%After win100%
0%After loss11%
Spirit Academy GreenNukeOLDBOYS PL
–CT side72%
–T side49%
–Pistol58%
–After win100%
–After loss20%
Spirit Academy GreenAncientOLDBOYS PL
–CT side58%
–T side51%
–Pistol58%
–After win93%
–After loss10%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol0% · 97% · OLDBOYS PL keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 14% · OLDBOYS PL fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Spirit Academy Green vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPIOLD
InfernoSPI bann/a0g100%1-0
Spirit Academy Green on Inferno
no recent maps
OLDBOYS PL on Inferno
W
ROUNDS13–103mo agoDust2OLD ban100%1-033%2-4
Spirit Academy Green on Dust2
W
KUUSAMO13–413d agoAnubisSPI pick100%1-067%4-2
Spirit Academy Green on Anubis
WDark Moon13–59d agoNukeOLD pickn/a0g83%10-2
Spirit Academy Green on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheSPI ban0%0-1100%1-0
Spirit Academy Green on Cache
L
Fire Flux12–167d agoOLDBOYS PL on Cache
W
LPH13–44d agoMirageOLD ban67%2-150%5-5
Ancientdecidern/a0g67%8-4
Spirit Academy Green on Ancient
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Spirit Academy Green Inferno · OLDBOYS PL Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Spirit Academy Green
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/4 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/2 (100%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 2 (100%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs Fire FluxCacheled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs Fire FluxCache12-16
OLDBOYS PL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/32 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 10 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 downvs Falcons ForceNukefrom 6 downvs ArchAnubisfrom 5 downvs WBT AcademyNukefrom 5 downvs EnjoyAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/18 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 18 maps they lost, 8 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ArchDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs NAVI JuniorNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs QWENTRYAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs ArchDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs DONSTUNukefrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs Aurora Young BludMirage16-14vs QWENTRYAncient17-19vs Rune EatersAncient16-14vs DONSTUNuke16-12vs ArchMirage14-16