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Predictions / ex-Zero Tenacity vs Privateer · match preview
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Privateer: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #74 · 56-57
VS
2026-09-08 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · Best of 3
Privateer
World #186 · 4-13
91%9%
85%
1.076.1Market · 2 books
15%The call · high confidence
ex-Zero Tenacity are favoured: our model gives them 91% against Privateer. Bookmakers lean ex-Zero Tenacity at 85%. Strength clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, record clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, form clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, firepower clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity.
Likely mapsInferno · Nuke · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-Zero TenacitypullPrivateer
Team strength1647
138791/9 EX-
Track record56–57
4–1373/27 EX-
Recent formLLWWL
LLLLL78/22 EX-
Roster rating1.15
0.94100/0 EX-
Bookmakers imply 85% for ex-Zero Tenacity (1.07 / 6.1); we land 6 points higher at 91%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (274 maps of ex-Zero Tenacity, 40 of Privateer).
Bottom line: ex-Zero Tenacity to beat Privateer, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
ex-Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
OG#592-00-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs OG
Aug 28WCache13-7Dust213-7Privateer vs OG
Aug 14LMirage5-13Dust23-13
The Last Resort#1130-20-6
ex-Zero Tenacity vs The Last Resort
Apr 23LInferno7-13Overpass10-13Privateer vs The Last Resort
Aug 20LNuke14-16Dust29-13Jul 19LNuke10-13Dust23-13Jul 18LNuke10-13Ancient13-7Cache6-13
Inner Circle Academy#1160-21-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 17LAnubis7-13Nuke8-13Privateer vs Inner Circle Academy
Sep 5LNuke2-13Dust213-11Ancient5-13
HAVU#1207-50-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs HAVU
Aug 28WCache13-8Nuke9-13Inferno16-13Mar 20LDust213-6Nuke11-13Mirage16-19Mar 10WDust213-10Nuke8-13Mirage13-11+1 earlier meeting
Privateer vs HAVU
Sep 6LDust23-13Nuke8-13
Honvéd#1352-00-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Honvéd
Aug 26WMirage13-7Cache16-13Privateer vs Honvéd
Jul 26LDust213-16Nuke10-13
megoshort0-22-1
ex-Zero Tenacity vs megoshort
Mar 9Lseries0-2Privateer vs megoshort
Jul 23WInferno13-9Mirage14-16Ancient13-8Firepower
roster ratingsex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.15 · top +0.06
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLDN | 54 | 1.15 | 77.6 | 77.7% | 52% | 1.21 |
| Cjoffo | 271 | 1.1 | 70.6 | 72.6% | 64% | 1.15 |
| brutmonster | 262 | 1.14 | 74.9 | 70.6% | 37% | 1.14 |
| Kind0 | 259 | 1.05 | 78.6 | 72.2% | 49% | 1.13 |
| Dragon | 95 | 1.06 | 79.3 | 71.8% | 51% | 1.11 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-Zero Tenacity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-PRI
AncientEX- bann/a0g29%2-5
ex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisPRI ban46%11-13n/a0g
ex-Zero Tenacity on Anubis
W
Black Phoenix13–85d agoW
FOKUS16–1311d agoW
WBT13–1011d agoW
HYPERSPIRIT13–712d agoL
CYBERSHOKE Prospects4–1314d agoL
benched gods1–1318d agoLInner Circle Academy7–1321d agoLJust Players14–163mo agoPrivateer on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoEX- pick63%29-17100%2-0
NukePRI pick52%29-2731%4-9
MirageEX- ban43%17-2320%1-4
CachePRI ban80%12-30%0-1
Dust2decider52%33-3020%2-8
Each team's usual first ban: ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient · Privateer Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-Zero Tenacity71%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: Privateer 55% toss-up · Nuke: ex-Zero Tenacity 68% clear · Dust2: ex-Zero Tenacity 77% clearWhyex-Zero Tenacity hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).Outcomesex-Zero Tenacity 71%: 2-1 40%, 2-0 31% · Privateer 29%: 2-0 17%, 2-1 12%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ex-Zero Tenacity 71%ex-Zero Tenacity are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ex-Zero Tenacity 2-1.29% Privateer
Inferno
ex-Zero Tenacity45%Privateer55%
29-17record2-0
63%win100%
54%CT win63%
55%T win58%
60%pistol50%
85%convert100%
Nuke
ex-Zero Tenacity68%Privateer32%
29-27record4-9
52%win31%
55%CT win51%
48%T win43%
56%pistol42%
79%convert73%
Dust2
ex-Zero Tenacity77%Privateer23%
33-30record2-8
52%win20%
52%CT win45%
52%T win36%
52%pistol45%
78%convert67%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
EX-ct
EX-t
PRIct
PRIt
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
PRIpistol
PRIconv
PRIeco
Infernopool
54%232/430
55%282/516
63%15/24
58%11/19
60%55/92
85%47/55
32%12/37
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Nukepool
55%299/540
48%269/565
51%65/127
43%66/153
56%63/112
79%50/63
29%14/49
42%11/26
73%8/11
13%2/15
Dust2pool
52%325/631
52%336/649
45%45/100
36%30/83
52%65/126
78%51/65
16%10/61
45%9/20
67%6/9
18%2/11
Ancientban
n/a
n/a
61%41/67
24%17/70
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%7/14
43%3/7
14%1/7
Anubisban
42%106/250
52%128/245
n/a
n/a
42%20/48
80%16/20
11%3/28
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
50%221/443
43%170/395
48%26/54
42%22/52
40%32/80
78%25/32
21%10/48
50%5/10
60%3/5
40%2/5
Cacheban
56%67/120
61%109/179
33%4/12
29%2/7
57%17/30
94%16/17
15%2/13
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ex-Zero Tenacity wins more pistol rounds: 55% vs 44%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → ex-Zero Tenacity usually win the next round too (81% vs 73%). Lose the pistol → ex-Zero Tenacity fight back to win the next round more often (24% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/137 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 137 maps they won, 40 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i42/131 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 131 maps they lost, 42 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs benched godsDust2led 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16
Privateer
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/11 (9%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 1 (9%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 9% of their wins were comebacks, not 9% of all games.vs megoshortInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/27 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 8 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs HonvédNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs megoshortMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs BERGNukeled 5 · lost 12-16vs RyvexDust2led 4 · lost 22-25
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs megoshortInfernofrom 3 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxNukeled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs VoracityAncient14-16vs megoshortMirage14-16vs HonvédDust213-16vs The Last ResortNuke14-16vs RyvexDust222-25