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Predictions / MOUZ NXT vs KUUSAMO · match preview
MOUZ NXT vs KUUSAMO: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6
MOUZ NXT
World #156 · 52-59
VS
2026-09-07 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · Best of 3
KUUSAMO
World #160 · 4-10
57%43%
69%
1.363.02Market · 7 books
31%The call
MOUZ NXT are favoured: our model gives them 57% against KUUSAMO. Bookmakers lean MOUZ NXT at 69%. Record slightly favours MOUZ NXT.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZ NXTpullKUUSAMO
Team strength1454
144752/48 MOU
Track record52–59
4–1062/38 MOU
Recent formLWWLL
WLLLW53/47 MOU
Roster rating1
1.0153/47 KUU
Bookmakers imply 69% for MOUZ NXT (1.36 / 3.02); we land 12 points lower at 57%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 85% our own signal (253 maps of MOUZ NXT, 24 of KUUSAMO).
Bottom line: MOUZ NXT to beat KUUSAMO, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
MOUZ NXT
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ENCE#1252-10-5
MOUZ NXT vs ENCE
Aug 15WCache10-13Mirage13-9Nuke13-7
Misa#1284-22-0
KUUSAMO vs Misa
Sep 6WNuke22-18Cache16-14
PCIFIC#1851-41-2
KUUSAMO vs PCIFIC
Sep 6LDust210-13Nuke13-6Cache9-13
EC BANGA1-01-0
MOUZ NXT vs EC BANGA
Jan 4WTrain13-7KUUSAMO vs EC BANGA
Mar 23WMirage13-8Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ NXT · avg 1 · top +0.12
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUKUU
InfernoMOU ban0%0-133%1-2
MOUZ NXT on Inferno
L
Inner Circle Academy6–1319d agoAnubisKUU ban47%14-16n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Anubis
W
DONSTU16–1420d agoL
WBT2–131mo agoW
Noir Verse13–91mo agoLNoir Verse9–132mo agoL
GenOne6–135mo agoL
Clutchain7–135mo agoL
aimclub7–135mo agoW
fnatic13–106mo agoKUUSAMO on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeMOU pick51%24-2343%3-4
MirageKUU pick45%21-2643%3-4
Dust2MOU ban40%19-290%0-2
AncientKUU ban51%18-170%0-3
Cachedecider50%6-650%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · KUUSAMO Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
MOUZ NXT54%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: MOUZ NXT 57% · Mirage: MOUZ NXT 50% toss-up · Cache: MOUZ NXT 50% toss-upWhyMOUZ NXT hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMOUZ NXT 54%: 2-0 29%, 2-1 25% · KUUSAMO 46%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
MOUZ NXT 54%It’s nearly a coin-flip. MOUZ NXT only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.46% KUUSAMO
Nuke
MOUZ NXT57%KUUSAMO43%
24-23record3-4
51%win43%
58%CT win49%
47%T win48%
52%pistol57%
82%convert88%
Mirage
MOUZ NXT50%KUUSAMO50%
21-26record3-4
45%win43%
56%CT win46%
42%T win52%
47%pistol64%
80%convert100%
Cache
MOUZ NXT50%KUUSAMO50%
6-6record1-1
50%win50%
53%CT win27%
44%T win63%
42%pistol75%
80%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MOUct
MOUt
KUUct
KUUt
MOUpistol
MOUconv
MOUeco
KUUpistol
KUUconv
KUUeco
Nukepool
58%285/489
47%239/513
49%35/71
48%40/83
52%49/94
82%40/49
18%8/45
57%8/14
88%7/8
0%0/6
Miragepool
56%266/475
42%204/481
46%31/67
52%36/69
47%44/94
80%35/44
12%6/50
64%9/14
100%9/9
0%0/5
Cachepool
53%70/133
44%64/144
27%6/22
63%15/24
42%10/24
80%8/10
14%2/14
75%3/4
100%3/3
0%0/1
Infernoban
25%3/12
43%3/7
45%10/22
36%13/36
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
67%4/6
100%4/4
0%0/2
Anubisban
50%160/318
46%143/313
n/a
n/a
40%24/60
71%17/24
14%5/36
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
45%232/514
45%203/454
33%8/24
38%6/16
57%55/96
76%42/55
15%6/41
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
Ancientban
51%203/395
51%165/325
40%10/25
33%12/36
47%33/70
75%24/32
22%8/36
17%1/6
100%1/1
40%2/5
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
KUUSAMO wins more pistol rounds: 63% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → KUUSAMO usually win the next round too (95% vs 81%). Lose the pistol → MOUZ NXT fight back to win the next round more often (15% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/113 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 40 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/134 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 134 maps they lost, 47 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16
KUUSAMO
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/8 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 3 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs MisaNukefrom 4 downvs MisaCachefrom 4 downvs BOJONGMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/16 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 16 maps they lost, 6 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CSDIILITNukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs PCIFICDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs PCIFICCacheled 5 · lost 9-13vs PhantomNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs The Night ClubAncientled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MisaNukefrom 4 down · won 22-18
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CSDIILITNukeled 5 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs SINQUNuke13-16vs MisaNuke22-18vs MisaCache16-14