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Predictions / MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon · match preview
MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6
MOUZ NXT
World #142 · 54-60
VS
2026-09-08 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · Best of 3
Dark Moon
World #– · 4-7
62%38%
64%
1.482.62Market · 6 books
36%The call
MOUZ NXT are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Dark Moon. Bookmakers lean MOUZ NXT at 64%. Record slightly favours MOUZ NXT, firepower clearly favours MOUZ NXT.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZ NXTpullDark Moon
Team strength1474
147851/49 DAR
Track record54–60
4–761/39 MOU
Recent formWWLLW
WWLWL52/48 DAR
Roster rating1.04
0.9890/10 MOU
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 64% for MOUZ NXT (1.48 / 2.62) and we land at 62%, the same read. This read is 84% our own signal (259 maps of MOUZ NXT, 23 of Dark Moon).
Bottom line: MOUZ NXT to beat Dark Moon, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
MOUZ NXT
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
CYBERSHOKE#912-40-2
Dark Moon vs CYBERSHOKE
May 26LAncient3-13Dust211-13
BASEMENT BOYS#1002-10-2
MOUZ NXT vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jan 20WMirage13-4Train11-13Nuke13-10Dark Moon vs BASEMENT BOYS
Sep 6LDust26-13Mirage6-13
Omega#1052-10-2
MOUZ NXT vs Omega
Feb 16WNuke13-7Dust216-14Dark Moon vs Omega
May 29LDust26-13Ancient4-13
Noir Verse#1484-12-0
Dark Moon vs Noir Verse
Sep 6WDust213-8Mirage13-11Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ NXT · avg 1.04 · top +0.19
Dark Moon · avg 0.98 · top +0.16
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| modeSavage | 13 | 1.16 | 76.2 | 68.7% | 44% | 1.14 |
| Maison | 19 | 0.92 | 69.2 | 64.6% | 56% | 1.07 |
| keiyon | 23 | 0.88 | 70.3 | 69% | 67% | 1.01 |
| ri0dayungog | 23 | 0.83 | 62.5 | 63.4% | 60% | 0.9 |
| d3j4vy | 23 | 0.68 | 64.7 | 63.3% | 51% | 0.8 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUDAR
InfernoMOU ban0%0-150%1-1
MOUZ NXT on Inferno
L
Inner Circle Academy6–1320d agoNukeDAR ban53%26-23n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Nuke
W
Permitta13–21d agoW
KUUSAMO13–31d agoL
PCIFIC10–132d agoW
Misa13–112d agoL
Bushido Wildcats11–134d agoWPCIFIC13–85d agoL
BAKS11–139d agoWInner Circle Academy13–420d agoDark Moon on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisMOU pick45%14-17n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Anubis
L
The Last Resort11–131d agoW
DONSTU16–1421d agoL
WBT2–131mo agoWNoir Verse13–91mo agoLNoir Verse9–132mo agoL
GenOne6–135mo agoL
Clutchain7–135mo agoL
aimclub7–135mo agoDark Moon on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2DAR pick40%19-2950%4-4
MirageMOU ban45%21-2640%2-3
AncientDAR ban53%20-180%0-6
Cachedecider50%6-6n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Cache
WMisa13–112d agoLPCIFIC11–135d agoW
Entropy13–99d agoL
SPARTA9–1320d agoW
ex-MANA16–1424d agoL
ENCE10–1324d agoL
INOX Division14–1625d agoL
Enjoy11–1325d agoDark Moon on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · Dark Moon Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Dark Moon55%to win the seriesiMap edgesAnubis: Dark Moon 50% toss-up · Dust2: Dark Moon 60% · Cache: Dark Moon 50% toss-upWhyDark Moon hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMOUZ NXT 45%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 20% · Dark Moon 55%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
MOUZ NXT 45%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Dark Moon only lead because their Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.55% Dark Moon
Anubis
MOUZ NXT50%Dark Moon50%
thin sample, read with caution
14-17record0-0
45%win–
51%CT win–
45%T win–
42%pistol–
73%convert–
Dust2
MOUZ NXT40%Dark Moon60%
19-29record4-4
40%win50%
45%CT win50%
45%T win51%
57%pistol69%
76%convert73%
Cache
MOUZ NXT50%Dark Moon50%
thin sample, read with caution
6-6record0-0
50%win–
53%CT win–
44%T win–
42%pistol–
80%convert–
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MOUct
MOUt
DARct
DARt
MOUpistol
MOUconv
MOUeco
DARpistol
DARconv
DAReco
Anubispool
51%167/330
45%147/325
n/a
n/a
42%26/62
73%19/26
14%5/36
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2pool
45%232/514
45%203/454
50%37/74
51%46/90
57%55/96
76%42/55
15%6/41
69%11/16
73%8/11
0%0/5
Cachepool
53%70/133
44%64/144
n/a
n/a
42%10/24
80%8/10
14%2/14
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
25%3/12
43%3/7
46%11/24
57%12/21
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
Nukeban
59%304/513
47%246/520
n/a
n/a
52%51/98
82%42/51
17%8/47
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
56%266/475
42%204/481
35%18/52
55%28/51
47%44/94
80%35/44
12%6/50
30%3/10
100%3/3
29%2/7
Ancientban
51%212/418
52%187/361
25%13/51
27%15/55
46%35/76
74%25/34
20%8/40
25%3/12
67%2/3
22%2/9
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Dark Moon wins more pistol rounds: 69% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (76% vs 73%). Lose the pistol → MOUZ NXT fight back to win the next round more often (14% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/117 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 42 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i48/136 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 136 maps they lost, 48 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16
Dark Moon
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/8 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 2 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 downvs HAVUInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/15 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 7 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2led 4 · lost 6-13vs 1winMirageled 3 · lost 5-13vs 1winDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs OmegaDust2led 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs DEPOOverpass13-16