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Matches / Upcoming / MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon

MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6

MOUZ NXT
World #142 · 54-60
VS
2026-09-08 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · Best of 3
Dark Moon
World #– · 4-7
62%
Win probability
38%
64%
1.482.62Market · 6 booksBookmakerMOUDAR1xBit1.482.621xbet1.482.62ColdBet1.482.62Spinbet1.482.62Vivatbet1.482.62betlabel1.482.62
36%
The call

MOUZ NXT are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Dark Moon. Bookmakers lean MOUZ NXT at 64%. Record slightly favours MOUZ NXT, firepower clearly favours MOUZ NXT.

Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Cache

Recent form

MOUZ NXT

PermittaStompStomp13-2OvertimeOT1d ago2-0KUUSAMO1d ago2-0The Last ResortPistolsPist3/41d ago0-2PCIFIC2d ago0-2Misa2d ago2-1Bushido WildcatsUpsetUpset4d ago2-1PCIFIC5d ago1-2BAKS9d ago0-2Entropy9d ago1-2SPARTAUpsetUpset20d ago0-2Inner Circle Academy20d ago1-2DONSTUComebackCB7OvertimeOT21d ago2-0SPARTAPistolsPist6/621d ago1-2ex-MANAUpsetUpsetStompStomp2-1324d ago1-2ENCEPistolsPist5/624d ago2-1

Dark Moon

HAVUUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/41d ago2-0Noir Verse2d ago2-0BASEMENT BOYS2d ago0-2Banda ChuyaPistolsPist3/43d ago2-0DEPOStompStomp2-133mo ago0-2CYBERSHOKE Prospects3mo ago0-2DEPOOvertimeOT3mo ago0-2Game Point3mo ago2-1OmegaPistolsPist3/43mo ago0-21winPistolsPist3/44mo ago0-2CYBERSHOKE4mo ago0-2

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
CYBERSHOKE#912-40-2
MOUZ NXT vs CYBERSHOKE
Apr 20LMirage13-9Ancient7-13Nuke23-25Mar 12LMirage13-6Ancient13-16Nuke9-13
Dark Moon vs CYBERSHOKE
May 26LAncient3-13Dust211-13
BASEMENT BOYS#1002-10-2
MOUZ NXT vs BASEMENT BOYS
Jan 20WMirage13-4Train11-13Nuke13-10
Dark Moon vs BASEMENT BOYS
Sep 6LDust26-13Mirage6-13
Omega#1052-10-2
MOUZ NXT vs Omega
Feb 16WNuke13-7Dust216-14
Dark Moon vs Omega
May 29LDust26-13Ancient4-13
Noir Verse#1484-12-0
MOUZ NXT vs Noir Verse
Jul 28WAnubis13-9Nuke13-6Jul 12WAnubis9-13Ancient13-8Cache13-11
Dark Moon vs Noir Verse
Sep 6WDust213-8Mirage13-11

Firepower

roster ratings

MOUZ NXT · avg 1.04 · top +0.19

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
deeN141.0274.673%56%1.23
Nikodeon2551.0177.872%60%1.13
ay0k2550.9165.669.1%47%0.98
eSx720.9764.466.5%33%0.96
mixer710.8164.467.8%67%0.91

Dark Moon · avg 0.98 · top +0.16

PlayerMpK-DADRKASTHSRating
modeSavage131.1676.268.7%44%1.14
Maison190.9269.264.6%56%1.07
keiyon230.8870.369%67%1.01
ri0dayungog230.8362.563.4%60%0.9
d3j4vy230.6864.763.3%51%0.8

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ NXT vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUDAR
InfernoMOU ban0%0-150%1-1
MOUZ NXT on Inferno
LInner Circle Academy6–1320d ago
Dark Moon on Inferno
WHAVU13–91d agoLCYBERSHOKE Prospects10–133mo ago
NukeDAR ban53%26-23n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Nuke
WPermitta13–21d agoWKUUSAMO13–31d agoLPCIFIC10–132d agoWMisa13–112d agoLBushido Wildcats11–134d agoWPCIFIC13–85d agoLBAKS11–139d agoWInner Circle Academy13–420d ago
Dark Moon on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisMOU pick45%14-17n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Anubis
LThe Last Resort11–131d agoWDONSTU16–1421d agoLWBT2–131mo agoWNoir Verse13–91mo agoLNoir Verse9–132mo agoLGenOne6–135mo agoLClutchain7–135mo agoLaimclub7–135mo ago
Dark Moon on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2DAR pick40%19-2950%4-4
MOUZ NXT on Dust2
LPCIFIC7–132d agoLMisa11–132d agoWBushido Wildcats13–74d agoLPCIFIC5–135d agoLBAKS5–139d agoLSPARTA6–1320d agoLSPARTA10–1321d agoLex-MANA2–1324d ago
Dark Moon on Dust2
WHAVU13–61d agoWNoir Verse13–82d agoLBASEMENT BOYS6–132d agoWBanda Chuya13–53d agoWGame Point13–103mo agoLOmega6–133mo agoL1win8–134mo agoLCYBERSHOKE11–134mo ago
MirageMOU ban45%21-2640%2-3
MOUZ NXT on Mirage
WBushido Wildcats13–84d agoLEntropy8–139d agoLInner Circle Academy3–1320d agoLex-MANA3–1324d agoWENCE13–924d agoLex-MANA10–131mo agoWMisa19–171mo agoLWBT2–131mo ago
Dark Moon on Mirage
WNoir Verse13–112d agoLBASEMENT BOYS6–132d agoWBanda Chuya13–73d agoLDEPO9–133mo agoL1win5–134mo ago
AncientDAR ban53%20-180%0-6
MOUZ NXT on Ancient
WPermitta16–141d agoWKUUSAMO13–31d agoLThe Last Resort6–131d agoLEntropy11–139d agoWSPARTA13–721d agoWLazer Cats13–1125d agoWEnjoy13–925d agoWNoir Verse13–82mo ago
Dark Moon on Ancient
LDEPO2–133mo agoLCYBERSHOKE Prospects4–133mo agoLDEPO5–133mo agoLGame Point10–133mo agoLOmega4–133mo agoLCYBERSHOKE3–134mo ago
Cachedecider50%6-6n/a0g
MOUZ NXT on Cache
WMisa13–112d agoLPCIFIC11–135d agoWEntropy13–99d agoLSPARTA9–1320d agoWex-MANA16–1424d agoLENCE10–1324d agoLINOX Division14–1625d agoLEnjoy11–1325d ago
Dark Moon on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ NXT Inferno · Dark Moon Inferno.

Map lab

Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.

Dark Moon55%to win the seriesiMap edgesAnubis: Dark Moon 50% toss-up · Dust2: Dark Moon 60% · Cache: Dark Moon 50% toss-upWhyDark Moon hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesMOUZ NXT 45%: 2-1 25%, 2-0 20%  ·  Dark Moon 55%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
MOUZ NXT 45%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Dark Moon only lead because their Dust2 is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.55% Dark Moon
Anubis
MOUZ NXT50%
Dark Moon50%
thin sample, read with caution
14-17record0-0
45%win–
51%CT win–
45%T win–
42%pistol–
73%convert–
Dust2
MOUZ NXT40%
Dark Moon60%
19-29record4-4
40%win50%
45%CT win50%
45%T win51%
57%pistol69%
76%convert73%
Cache
MOUZ NXT50%
Dark Moon50%
thin sample, read with caution
6-6record0-0
50%win–
53%CT win–
44%T win–
42%pistol–
80%convert–

Pistol, eco & sides

win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per map
ct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
MOUct
MOUt
DARct
DARt
MOUpistol
MOUconv
MOUeco
DARpistol
DARconv
DAReco
Anubispool
51%167/330
45%147/325
n/a
n/a
42%26/62
73%19/26
14%5/36
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2pool
45%232/514
45%203/454
50%37/74
51%46/90
57%55/96
76%42/55
15%6/41
69%11/16
73%8/11
0%0/5
Cachepool
53%70/133
44%64/144
n/a
n/a
42%10/24
80%8/10
14%2/14
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
25%3/12
43%3/7
46%11/24
57%12/21
50%1/2
0%0/1
100%1/1
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
Nukeban
59%304/513
47%246/520
n/a
n/a
52%51/98
82%42/51
17%8/47
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
56%266/475
42%204/481
35%18/52
55%28/51
47%44/94
80%35/44
12%6/50
30%3/10
100%3/3
29%2/7
Ancientban
51%212/418
52%187/361
25%13/51
27%15/55
46%35/76
74%25/34
20%8/40
25%3/12
67%2/3
22%2/9
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Dark Moon wins more pistol rounds: 69% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (76% vs 73%). Lose the pistol → MOUZ NXT fight back to win the next round more often (14% vs 0%).

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

MOUZ NXT

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/117 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 42 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 downvs Friendly CampersNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i48/136 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 136 maps they lost, 48 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13vs los kogutosMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16

Dark Moon

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/8 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 2 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 downvs HAVUInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/15 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 7 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs BASEMENT BOYSDust2led 4 · lost 6-13vs 1winMirageled 3 · lost 5-13vs 1winDust2led 3 · lost 8-13vs OmegaDust2led 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Game PointOverpassfrom 4 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs DEPOOverpass13-16

MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon FAQ

Who is favored to win MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon?

MOUZ NXT are favored with a 62% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon?

Bookmakers price MOUZ NXT at 1.48 and Dark Moon at 2.62 (implied 64% vs 36%).

When do MOUZ NXT and Dark Moon play?

MOUZ NXT vs Dark Moon is scheduled for 2026-09-08 13:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6.