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Predictions / FaZe vs Alliance · match preview
FaZe vs Alliance: CS2 match prediction · FISSURE Playground 3
FaZe
World #12 · 23-26
VS
2026-09-08 06:00 UTC
FISSURE Playground 3 · Best of 3 · ★
Alliance
World #36 · 53-23
62%38%
72%
1.293.38Market · 15 books
28%The call
FaZe are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Alliance. Bookmakers lean FaZe at 72%. Record slightly favours Alliance, firepower slightly favours FaZe, head-to-head clearly favours FaZe.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FaZepullAlliance
Team strength1629
164754/46 ALL
Track record23–26
53–2362/38 ALL
Recent formLWWLW
LLWWW56/44 FAZ
Roster rating1.14
1.1364/36 FAZ
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 FAZ
Bookmakers imply 72% for FaZe (1.29 / 3.38); we land 10 points lower at 62%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (114 maps of FaZe, 163 of Alliance). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: FaZe leads 1–0.
Bottom line: FaZe to beat Alliance, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
FaZe
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FaZe
Alliance
Aurora#101-22-1
FaZe vs Aurora
Mar 18LNuke13-11Inferno8-13Dust210-13Alliance vs Aurora
Apr 1WInferno2-13Anubis13-9Overpass13-11
9z#112-13-2
PARIVISION#172-40-1
Alliance vs PARIVISION
Jul 1LAncient4-13
3DMAX#212-22-1
Alliance vs 3DMAX
May 28WInferno19-17Dust29-13Anubis13-8
BIG#231-20-2
FaZe vs BIG
Apr 5LDust213-3Overpass11-13Anubis3-13Alliance vs BIG
Jan 24LDust26-13Ancient11-13
Inner Circle#240-22-1
FaZe vs Inner Circle
Apr 6LNuke9-13Mirage9-13Alliance vs Inner Circle
Mar 31WDust213-7Overpass11-13Anubis13-8
Ninjas in Pyjamas#260-21-2
FaZe vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 30LAncient11-13Nuke10-13
fnatic#380-24-1
FaZe vs fnatic
Mar 31LAnubis6-13Overpass5-13Firepower
roster ratingsFaZe · avg 1.14 · top +0.1
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FaZe vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFAZALL
InfernoFAZ ban0%0-674%28-10
MirageALL ban59%13-90%0-2
NukeFAZ pick65%11-652%15-14
AnubisALL pick22%2-766%19-10
Dust2FAZ ban52%11-1068%13-6
AncientALL ban48%11-1255%12-10
Cachedecider86%6-1n/a0g
FaZe on Cache
L
Vitality6–1318d agoW
Legacy13–625d agoW
Spirit13–91mo agoW
DENDELE13–71mo agoWPARIVISION13–92mo agoW
BetBoom13–22mo agoW
EYEBALLERS13–32mo agoAlliance on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: FaZe Inferno · Alliance Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Alliance61%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: FaZe 62% · Anubis: Alliance 83% clear · Cache: Alliance 50% toss-upWhyAlliance hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesFaZe 39%: 2-1 29%, 2-0 11% · Alliance 61%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 29%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
FaZe 39%Alliance are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Alliance 2-0.61% Alliance
Nuke
FaZe62%Alliance38%
11-6record15-14
65%win52%
63%CT win53%
47%T win48%
59%pistol55%
74%convert81%
Anubis
FaZe17%Alliance83%
2-7record19-10
22%win66%
30%CT win51%
58%T win61%
56%pistol53%
90%convert87%
Cache
FaZe50%Alliance50%
thin sample, read with caution
6-1record0-0
86%win–
65%CT win–
62%T win–
50%pistol–
86%convert–
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
FAZct
FAZt
ALLct
ALLt
FAZpistol
FAZconv
FAZeco
ALLpistol
ALLconv
ALLeco
Nukepool
63%102/162
47%90/192
53%175/330
48%122/254
59%20/34
74%14/19
7%1/14
55%32/58
81%26/32
15%4/26
Anubispool
30%27/89
58%53/91
51%148/289
61%196/323
56%10/18
90%9/10
38%3/8
53%31/58
87%26/30
11%3/27
Cachepool
65%40/62
62%44/71
n/a
n/a
50%7/14
86%6/7
29%2/7
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
41%27/66
37%22/60
55%192/347
58%241/417
58%7/12
43%3/7
0%0/5
57%43/76
77%33/43
21%7/33
Mirageban
57%132/232
45%100/221
50%12/24
18%3/17
55%24/44
71%17/24
25%5/20
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
Dust2ban
53%110/209
49%111/227
54%112/208
54%98/183
60%25/42
84%21/25
6%1/17
66%25/38
88%22/25
15%2/13
Ancientban
56%136/244
50%112/226
55%125/227
48%100/207
46%21/46
86%18/21
16%4/25
48%21/44
86%18/21
30%7/23
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (FaZe 56%, Alliance 54%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (81% vs 84%). Lose the pistol → FaZe fight back to win the next round more often (21% vs 13%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FaZe
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/57 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 19 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 downvs paiNDust2from 6 downvs aimclubOverpassfrom 6 downvs DramaNukefrom 6 downvs FalconsDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/56 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Passion UADust2led 5 · lost 14-16vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs paiNNuke13-16vs paiNDust216-13vs AstralisInferno14-16vs Passion UANuke16-12vs Passion UADust214-16
Alliance
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/100 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 26 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 downvs ReThinkAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/62 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 20 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs VP.ProdigyAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13