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Predictions / SINNERS vs Phantom · match preview
SINNERS vs Phantom: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
SINNERS
World #50 · 40-32
VS
2026-09-07 12:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3 · ★
Phantom
World #56 · 52-50
47%53%
46%
2.021.72Market · 2 books
54%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Phantom at 54%. Form slightly favours SINNERS, firepower slightly favours Phantom, head-to-head slightly favours Phantom.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SINNERSpullPhantom
Team strength1581
158751/49 PHA
Track record40–32
52–5054/46 SIN
Recent formWWWLL
LWLWW61/39 SIN
Roster rating1.11
1.1360/40 PHA
Head-to-head0 maps
1 maps67/33 PHA
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 46% for SINNERS (2.02 / 1.72) and we land at 47%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (152 maps of SINNERS, 228 of Phantom). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Phantom leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Phantom to beat SINNERS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
SINNERS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Phantom
GamerLegion#182-40-1
SINNERS vs GamerLegion
May 12LMirage13-10Inferno9-13Nuke8-13Feb 24LNuke7-13Inferno14-16Feb 22WMirage19-16Phantom vs GamerLegion
Feb 22LAncient13-16
JiJieHao#271-03-2
SINNERS vs JiJieHao
Mar 29WAncient16-14
Alliance#362-21-2
Phantom vs Alliance
Feb 17LNuke13-8Overpass17-19Anubis10-13
K27#372-20-2
Phantom vs K27
Jul 17LNuke9-13Ancient6-13
fnatic#382-00-2
SINNERS vs fnatic
Feb 12WDust213-10Overpass13-3Phantom vs fnatic
Apr 30LAncient5-13Anubis13-16
FOKUS#410-22-3
SINNERS vs FOKUS
Sep 3LNuke6-13Ancient13-16
EYEBALLERS#421-21-2
SINNERS vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 9LMirage19-17Ancient7-13Inferno6-13Phantom vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8LAncient11-13Inferno19-17Anubis10-13
NRG#450-12-1
SINNERS vs NRG
Jun 2LNuke6-13Phantom vs NRG
Aug 9WAncient13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8Firepower
roster ratingsSINNERS · avg 1.11 · top +0.04
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, SINNERS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSINPHA
AnubisSIN bann/a0g43%6-8
SINNERS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoPHA ban44%8-1083%5-1
MirageSIN pick59%19-1347%15-17
NukePHA pick43%9-1254%30-26
AncientSIN ban52%14-1347%24-27
CachePHA ban44%4-50%0-2
Dust2decider55%17-1448%22-24
Each team's usual first ban: SINNERS Anubis · Phantom Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
SINNERS54%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: SINNERS 62% · Nuke: Phantom 60% · Dust2: SINNERS 57%WhySINNERS hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesSINNERS 54%: 2-1 30%, 2-0 25% · Phantom 46%: 2-0 23%, 2-1 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
SINNERS 54%It’s nearly a coin-flip. SINNERS only lead because their Mirage is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.46% Phantom
Mirage
SINNERS62%Phantom38%
19-13record15-17
59%win47%
54%CT win53%
54%T win45%
53%pistol67%
76%convert86%
Nuke
SINNERS40%Phantom60%
9-12record30-26
43%win54%
58%CT win56%
42%T win46%
52%pistol50%
82%convert80%
Dust2
SINNERS57%Phantom43%
17-14record22-24
55%win48%
52%CT win52%
51%T win48%
48%pistol50%
77%convert80%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
SINct
SINt
PHAct
PHAt
SINpistol
SINconv
SINeco
PHApistol
PHAconv
PHAeco
Miragepool
54%177/329
54%190/355
53%195/367
45%142/314
53%34/64
76%26/34
20%6/30
67%43/64
86%37/43
14%3/21
Nukepool
58%132/228
42%83/199
56%312/561
46%292/639
52%22/42
82%18/22
15%3/20
50%56/112
80%45/56
14%8/56
Dust2pool
52%150/290
51%175/341
52%249/477
48%219/454
48%30/62
77%23/30
19%6/31
50%46/92
80%37/46
20%9/46
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
53%72/137
48%79/166
n/a
n/a
n/a
43%12/28
75%9/12
13%2/16
Infernoban
56%111/199
44%82/186
56%38/68
58%33/57
53%19/36
72%13/18
12%2/17
50%6/12
100%6/6
33%2/6
Ancientban
50%155/313
51%128/252
51%279/544
49%257/522
56%30/54
70%21/30
13%3/24
57%58/102
75%43/57
20%9/44
Cacheban
50%52/104
49%41/84
29%7/24
53%10/19
50%9/18
56%5/9
22%2/9
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Phantom wins more pistol rounds: 54% vs 51%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Phantom usually win the next round too (82% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (19% vs 16%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
SINNERS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/82 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 27 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs 1winDust2from 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 5 downvs KOLESIEOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/70 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 70 maps they lost, 21 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19vs TrickedMirageled 6 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs SpiritMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs BetBoomNukeled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 1winDust2from 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke14-16vs AcendAncient16-14vs GamerLegionMirage19-16vs GamerLegionInferno14-16vs ECSTATICAncient22-20
Phantom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/113 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 113 maps they won, 34 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs RUSTECMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 downvs LeoAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i43/115 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 115 maps they lost, 43 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs LeoNukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs WashingtonOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs aAaDust2from 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16