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Predictions / Nemesis vs SINNERS · match preview
Nemesis vs SINNERS: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
Nemesis
World #43 · 64-36
VS
2026-09-09 09:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
SINNERS
World #44 · 41-32
70%30%
52%
1.81.95Market · 13 books
48%The call · high confidence
Nemesis are favoured: our model gives them 70% against SINNERS. Bookmakers lean Nemesis at 52%. Strength slightly favours Nemesis, form slightly favours SINNERS, firepower clearly favours Nemesis.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NemesispullSINNERS
Team strength1691
159769/31 NEM
Track record64–36
41–3256/44 NEM
Recent formWLWLW
WWWWL59/41 SIN
Roster rating1.12
1.1173/27 NEM
Head-to-head2 maps2 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 52% for Nemesis (1.8 / 1.95); we land 18 points higher at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (238 maps of Nemesis, 154 of SINNERS). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Nemesis to beat SINNERS, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Nemesis
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6mo ago
Nemesis2 : 0 SINNERS◆ same lineup7mo ago Nemesis0 : 2 SINNERS!
Nemesis2 : 0 SINNERS◆ same lineup7mo ago Nemesis0 : 2 SINNERS!⚠ Different lineup
Nemesis
outyiksrezo
inr3salt
G2#70-22-1
Nemesis vs G2
Apr 1LAncient3-13Dust26-13SINNERS vs G2
Mar 25WOverpass13-9Dust25-13Mirage19-17
Astralis#121-20-2
Nemesis vs Astralis
Jul 21LNuke13-11Ancient10-13Cache7-13SINNERS vs Astralis
May 13LMirage11-13Inferno8-13
BIG#244-12-2
K27#342-82-2
Nemesis vs K27
Mar 23LNuke21-25Dust214-16Mar 12LNuke4-13Dust213-9Mirage6-13Feb 10LAncient10-13Dust25-13+1 earlier meeting
fnatic#372-02-0
Nemesis vs fnatic
Apr 29WInferno13-5Ancient13-8SINNERS vs fnatic
Feb 12WDust213-10Overpass13-3
1win#385-02-1
SINNERS vs 1win
Jan 30WDust213-11Ancient7-13Overpass13-6
FOKUS#402-10-2
Nemesis vs FOKUS
May 31WAncient10-13Mirage13-5Dust213-9SINNERS vs FOKUS
Sep 3LNuke6-13Ancient13-16
EYEBALLERS#427-41-2
Nemesis vs EYEBALLERS
Jul 4WAncient13-10Inferno9-13Dust222-19Apr 9WNuke13-4Mirage13-4Mar 4WNuke11-13Mirage13-4Overpass13-8+1 earlier meeting
SINNERS vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 9LMirage19-17Ancient7-13Inferno6-13Firepower
roster ratingsNemesis · avg 1.12 · top +0.06
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nemesis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEMSIN
AnubisNEM ban0%0-1n/a0g
Nemesis on Anubis
LEYEBALLERS10–138mo agoSINNERS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoSIN ban55%18-1544%8-10
NukeNEM pick70%33-1443%9-12
MirageSIN pick61%22-1461%20-13
CacheNEM ban0%0-244%4-5
AncientSIN ban63%35-2154%15-13
Dust2decider62%28-1755%17-14
Each team's usual first ban: Nemesis Anubis · SINNERS Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nemesis66%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Nemesis 75% clear · Mirage: Nemesis 51% toss-up · Dust2: Nemesis 57%WhyNemesis hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNemesis 66%: 2-0 38%, 2-1 29% · SINNERS 34%: 2-1 21%, 2-0 13%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Nemesis 66%Nemesis are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Nemesis 2-0.34% SINNERS
Nuke
Nemesis75%SINNERS25%
33-14record9-12
70%win43%
59%CT win58%
50%T win42%
49%pistol52%
89%convert82%
Mirage
Nemesis51%SINNERS49%
22-14record20-13
61%win61%
55%CT win55%
48%T win53%
51%pistol55%
76%convert78%
Dust2
Nemesis57%SINNERS43%
28-17record17-14
62%win55%
53%CT win52%
51%T win51%
50%pistol48%
80%convert77%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NEMct
NEMt
SINct
SINt
NEMpistol
NEMconv
NEMeco
SINpistol
SINconv
SINeco
Nukepool
59%269/455
50%269/539
58%132/228
42%83/199
49%46/94
89%41/46
35%17/48
52%22/42
82%18/22
15%3/20
Miragepool
55%213/385
48%167/351
55%184/337
53%196/367
51%37/72
76%28/37
11%4/35
55%36/66
78%28/36
20%6/30
Dust2pool
53%274/518
51%222/434
52%150/290
51%175/341
50%45/90
80%36/45
20%9/45
48%30/62
77%23/30
19%6/31
Anubisban
45%5/11
42%5/12
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
51%182/357
53%177/336
56%111/199
44%82/186
47%31/66
61%19/31
31%11/35
53%19/36
72%13/18
12%2/17
Cacheban
35%7/20
35%7/20
50%52/104
49%41/84
50%2/4
50%1/2
0%0/2
50%9/18
56%5/9
22%2/9
Ancientban
57%302/534
52%323/627
50%163/325
52%133/257
56%63/112
90%56/62
35%17/49
55%31/56
71%22/31
16%4/25
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Nemesis 50%, SINNERS 52%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Nemesis usually win the next round too (82% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → Nemesis fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nemesis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/144 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 144 maps they won, 40 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs OGAncientfrom 8 downvs GenOneDust2from 6 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs INOX DivisionInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/88 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 88 maps they lost, 23 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs NemigaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs 100 ThievesAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs TDKOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OGAncientfrom 8 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSInferno18-22vs BIG AcademyDust219-16vs GenOneDust216-13vs Inner CircleMirage19-16vs MUERTAInferno14-16
SINNERS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/84 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 27 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs 1winDust2from 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 5 downvs KOLESIEOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/70 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 70 maps they lost, 21 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19vs TrickedMirageled 6 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs SpiritMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs BetBoomNukeled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 1winDust2from 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke14-16vs AcendAncient16-14vs GamerLegionMirage19-16vs GamerLegionInferno14-16vs ECSTATICAncient22-20