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Predictions / G2 Ares vs WAZABI · match preview
G2 Ares vs WAZABI: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
G2 Ares
World #98 · 37-36
VS
2026-09-07 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
WAZABI
World #– · 6-11
65%35%
70%
1.323.1Market · 21 books
30%The call
G2 Ares are favoured: our model gives them 65% against WAZABI. Bookmakers lean G2 Ares at 70%. Strength slightly favours G2 Ares, record slightly favours G2 Ares, form clearly favours G2 Ares, firepower slightly favours G2 Ares.
Likely mapsInferno · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 ArespullWAZABI
Team strength1474
142161/39 G2
Track record37–36
6–1163/37 G2
Recent formWLLLL
LLLLL78/22 G2
Roster rating1.06
0.9869/31 G2
Bookmakers imply 70% for G2 Ares (1.32 / 3.1); we land 5 points lower at 65%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 89% our own signal (165 maps of G2 Ares, 35 of WAZABI).
Bottom line: G2 Ares to beat WAZABI, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
G2 Ares
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Phantom#560-20-1
G2 Ares vs Phantom
Jul 24LMirage10-13Ancient14-16WAZABI vs Phantom
Mar 31LNuke6-13
SAW#651-02-1
G2 Ares vs SAW
May 1WAncient13-7WAZABI vs SAW
Apr 11WNuke11-13Anubis13-11Ancient13-7
Entropy#1392-02-5
G2 Ares vs Entropy
May 26WAnubis13-5Inferno13-8
Atreides#1471-20-2
G2 Ares vs Atreides
May 31LOverpass16-12Ancient14-16Inferno2-13WAZABI vs Atreides
May 29LAncient5-13Nuke9-13
Falcons Force#1590-21-2
G2 Ares vs Falcons Force
May 17LDust210-13Mirage10-13WAZABI vs Falcons Force
Apr 1LAncient8-13Nuke13-10Inferno6-13
MASONIC#2042-11-2
G2 Ares vs MASONIC
May 13WDust213-6Ancient10-13Inferno13-8WAZABI vs MASONIC
Apr 26LDust25-13Nuke13-9Anubis11-13
Young Ninjas2-10-2
G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas
Jun 10WOverpass8-13Dust213-11Mirage13-2WAZABI vs Young Ninjas
May 30LAnubis10-13Nuke3-13
Project 912-01-2
G2 Ares vs Project 91
Apr 24WInferno13-1Overpass13-7WAZABI vs Project 91
May 28LNuke13-8Ancient9-13Anubis9-13Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.06 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 WAZ
NukeG2 bann/a0g44%4-5
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageWAZ ban47%17-19n/a0g
G2 Ares on Mirage
LPsychoFace17–194d agoL
9INE23–259d agoL
Rune Eaters9–1310d agoL
HYPERSPIRIT11–1315d agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity7–1319d agoL
Permitta10–1320d agoLPermitta14–1622d agoW
HOTU13–81mo agoWAZABI on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoG2 pick48%16-1767%2-1
AnubisWAZ pick40%6-925%2-6
CacheG2 ban40%2-3n/a0g
G2 Ares on Cache
L
The Last Resort17–193d agoW
STATE16–1410d agoLPermitta8–1322d agoW
Inner Circle Academy22–181mo agoL
Lilmix11–132mo agoWAZABI on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2WAZ ban50%16-1633%1-2
Ancientdecider48%12-1322%2-7
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · WAZABI Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
G2 Ares64%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: WAZABI 56% toss-up · Anubis: G2 Ares 62% · Ancient: G2 Ares 71% clearWhyG2 Ares hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesG2 Ares 64%: 2-1 37%, 2-0 27% · WAZABI 36%: 2-0 21%, 2-1 15%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
G2 Ares 64%G2 Ares are the clearer side here: the most likely result is G2 Ares 2-1.36% WAZABI
Inferno
G2 Ares44%WAZABI56%
16-17record2-1
48%win67%
52%CT win55%
47%T win43%
48%pistol17%
66%convert100%
Anubis
G2 Ares62%WAZABI38%
6-9record2-6
40%win25%
47%CT win43%
50%T win47%
37%pistol56%
73%convert78%
Ancient
G2 Ares71%WAZABI29%
12-13record2-7
48%win22%
51%CT win49%
47%T win39%
56%pistol50%
82%convert56%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
G2 ct
G2 t
WAZct
WAZt
G2 pistol
G2 conv
G2 eco
WAZpistol
WAZconv
WAZeco
Infernopool
52%160/308
47%167/359
55%17/31
43%15/35
48%32/66
66%21/32
29%10/34
17%1/6
100%1/1
0%0/5
Anubispool
47%73/156
50%85/171
43%39/90
47%37/79
37%11/30
73%8/11
11%2/19
56%9/16
78%7/9
0%0/7
Ancientpool
51%136/268
47%117/248
49%50/103
39%33/84
56%28/50
82%23/28
23%5/22
50%9/18
56%5/9
0%0/9
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
51%47/93
44%41/94
n/a
n/a
n/a
44%8/18
88%7/8
0%0/10
Mirageban
54%188/347
47%192/411
n/a
n/a
56%40/72
75%30/40
28%9/32
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cacheban
51%29/57
43%26/60
n/a
n/a
40%4/10
50%2/4
0%0/6
n/a
n/a
n/a
Dust2ban
50%183/369
47%154/326
50%15/30
43%9/21
50%32/64
59%19/32
19%6/32
50%3/6
100%3/3
33%1/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (G2 Ares 49%, WAZABI 48%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → G2 Ares usually win the next round too (73% vs 68%). Lose the pistol → G2 Ares fight back to win the next round more often (23% vs 0%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/79 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 28 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 downvs BebopDust2from 7 downvs WWDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/86 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs PermittaCacheled 6 · lost 8-13vs PermittaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
WAZABI
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/12 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 4 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs EntropyInfernofrom 4 downvs Project 91Nukefrom 4 downvs B8Infernofrom 3 downvs IMA PROBLEMNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/23 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 5 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs Project 91Anubisled 4 · lost 9-13vs AtreidesNukeled 4 · lost 9-13vs IMA PROBLEMOverpassled 3 · lost 9-13vs Young NinjasAnubisled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyInfernofrom 4 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyAncientled 6 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs 3DMAXOverpass13-16vs EntropyAncient14-16