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Predictions / ReThink vs Misa · match preview
ReThink vs Misa: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
ReThink
World #– · 10-12
VS
2026-09-10 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Misa
World #128 · 31-46
63%37%
37%
2.521.45Market · 2 books
63%The call
ReThink are favoured: our model gives them 63% against Misa. Bookmakers lean Misa at 63%. Strength slightly favours ReThink, form clearly favours ReThink, firepower clearly favours ReThink.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ReThinkpullMisa
Team strength1498
143763/37 RET
Track record10–12
31–4652/48 MIS
Recent formWWWWW
LLWLL77/23 RET
Roster rating1.04
1.0271/29 RET
Bookmakers imply 37% for ReThink (2.52 / 1.45); we land 26 points higher at 63%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (52 maps of ReThink, 184 of Misa).
Bottom line: ReThink to beat Misa, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
ReThink
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
QUAZAR#890-41-2
Misa vs QUAZAR
Jul 12LAnubis16-13Mirage7-13Nuke8-13
BAKS#912-13-3
HAVU#1200-12-0
ReThink vs HAVU
Jan 23LDust27-13Misa vs HAVU
Mar 5WNuke13-11Mirage13-10
Lilmix#1952-14-2
ReThink vs Lilmix
Jun 22WAncient13-3Inferno17-19Mirage13-5
Young Ninjas0-22-3
ReThink vs Young Ninjas
Mar 26LAncient8-13Dust26-13
TNT0-23-2
ReThink vs TNT
Mar 31LAncient10-13Anubis10-13Firepower
roster ratingsReThink · avg 1.04 · top +0.08
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ReThink vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapRETMIS
NukeRET bann/a0g43%12-16
ReThink on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientMIS ban50%7-733%1-2
MirageRET pick60%6-440%12-18
Dust2MIS pick36%4-752%25-23
AnubisRET ban20%1-448%15-16
CacheMIS bann/a0g29%5-12
ReThink on Cache
no recent maps
Infernodecider0%0-650%10-10
Each team's usual first ban: ReThink Nuke · Misa Ancient.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Misa69%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: ReThink 67% clear · Dust2: Misa 63% · Inferno: Misa 88% clearWhyMisa hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesReThink 31%: 2-0 25%, 2-1 7% · Misa 69%: 2-1 48%, 2-0 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
ReThink 31%Misa are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Misa 2-1.69% Misa
Mirage
ReThink67%Misa33%
6-4record12-18
60%win40%
54%CT win52%
50%T win44%
65%pistol52%
77%convert74%
Dust2
ReThink37%Misa63%
4-7record25-23
36%win52%
50%CT win50%
40%T win52%
73%pistol49%
88%convert85%
Inferno
ReThink13%Misa87%
0-6record10-10
0%win50%
33%CT win54%
28%T win47%
33%pistol45%
50%convert67%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
RETct
RETt
MISct
MISt
RETpistol
RETconv
RETeco
MISpistol
MISconv
MISeco
Miragepool
54%59/109
50%50/101
52%179/347
44%127/289
65%13/20
77%10/13
43%3/7
52%31/60
74%23/31
14%4/29
Dust2pool
50%63/127
40%41/102
50%239/475
52%276/532
73%16/22
88%14/16
17%1/6
49%47/96
85%40/47
18%9/49
Infernopool
33%24/72
28%11/40
54%130/240
47%93/200
33%4/12
50%2/4
13%1/8
45%18/40
67%12/18
27%6/22
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
51%160/313
44%119/272
n/a
n/a
n/a
50%28/56
79%22/28
25%7/28
Ancientban
48%66/137
54%86/160
30%10/33
42%8/19
50%14/28
86%12/14
14%2/14
67%4/6
50%2/4
0%0/2
Anubisban
40%21/52
43%25/58
45%147/330
51%171/337
50%5/10
100%5/5
20%1/5
44%27/62
89%24/27
17%6/35
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
51%100/196
44%80/181
n/a
n/a
n/a
53%18/34
83%15/18
13%2/16
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ReThink wins more pistol rounds: 61% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (79% vs 78%). Lose the pistol → ReThink fight back to win the next round more often (24% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ReThink
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/22 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 7 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs Johnny SpeedsOverpassfrom 9 downvs B8 AcademyAnubisfrom 6 downvs roamsfiestMiragefrom 6 downvs VP.ProdigyAncientfrom 5 downvs VP.ProdigyDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/30 (53%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 30 maps they lost, 16 (53%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Imperial AcademyOverpassled 8 · lost 14-16vs TNTAnubisled 7 · lost 10-13vs AllianceAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs QUAZARDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs LilmixInfernoled 5 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Johnny SpeedsOverpassfrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Imperial AcademyOverpassled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs Imperial AcademyOverpass14-16vs AllianceAncient12-16vs AllianceOverpass12-16vs VP.ProdigyAncient16-13vs B8 AcademyAncient14-16
Misa
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/82 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 26 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 8 downvs ex-MANAInfernofrom 7 downvs WBTAnubisfrom 6 downvs HonvédMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i38/102 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 102 maps they lost, 38 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13vs EntropyCacheled 8 · lost 8-13vs ex-MANAMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Young NinjasNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs eternal premiumInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyCacheled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs LPHInferno15-19vs LPHNuke13-16vs 9INEOverpass19-17vs Endless JourneyInferno19-15vs Young NinjasNuke17-19