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Predictions / Color vs UPGRADE · match preview
Color vs UPGRADE: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
COL
Color
World #57 · 17-8
VS
2026-09-20 11:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
UPGRADE
World #86 · 8-6
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
72%28%
66%
1.412.71Market · 23 books
34%The call · high confidence
Color are favoured: our model gives them 72% against UPGRADE. Bookmakers lean Color at 66%. Strength slightly favours Color, record slightly favours Color, firepower slightly favours Color, head-to-head clearly favours Color.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ColorpullUPGRADE
Team strength1632
156464/36 COL
Track record17–8
8–660/40 COL
Recent formWWWWL
WWLWW53/47 COL
Roster rating1.13
1.0966/34 COL
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 COL
Bookmakers imply 66% for Color (1.41 / 2.71); we land 6 points higher at 72%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (59 maps of Color, 36 of UPGRADE). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Color leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Color to beat UPGRADE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsColor · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
UPGRADE · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pleynnn★ | 1.18 | 84.8 | 73.6% | 60% | 1.26 |
| SquEzxc | 1.11 | 73.7 | 72.9% | 32% | 1.11 |
| DAN9ARMATURA | 0.95 | 66.7 | 72.3% | 59% | 1.03 |
| dezl3bio | 0.98 | 75.2 | 70.1% | 57% | 1.03 |
| tw1sterzaza | 0.92 | 72.5 | 70.4% | 52% | 1.01 |
Recent form
Color
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-21-2
Color vs HOTU
Sep 1LDust213-10Cache7-13Anubis22-25UPGRADE vs HOTU
Aug 31LAnubis8-13Nuke19-15Dust22-13
Nemesis#440-20-2
Color vs Nemesis
Aug 22LDust211-13Inferno4-13UPGRADE vs Nemesis
Sep 16LCache5-13Inferno8-13
Nuclear TigeRES#471-22-1
Color vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 1LDust213-9Inferno2-13Ancient8-13UPGRADE vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 13WDust25-13Cache13-8Anubis13-11
INOX Division#592-02-1
Color vs INOX Division
Sep 13WInferno13-4Dust216-14UPGRADE vs INOX Division
Sep 18WAnubis8-13Nuke13-5Ancient16-14
FORZE Reload#752-04-2
Color vs FORZE Reload
Aug 29WMirage13-10Dust213-10
HYPERSPIRIT#1392-02-0
Color vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 28WCache13-7Mirage13-10UPGRADE vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 29WInferno13-7Ancient13-6
Xcity#2182-02-1
Color vs Xcity
Aug 27WCache13-6Mirage13-5UPGRADE vs Xcity
Aug 29WAncient11-13Dust213-5Anubis13-10Map lab
Color55%to win the Bo3 · most likely UPGRADE 2-1
If the veto goes
Color 55%how the series ends45% UPGRADE
28%2-016%
26%2-129%
Color74%12-6vsUPGRADE26%3-5
67%Win38%
54%CT48%
55%T42%
53%Pistol38%
95%Conv83%
Color38%4-3vsUPGRADE62%7-3
57%Win70%
48%CT52%
62%T58%
36%Pistol55%
100%Conv82%
Color48%6-3vsUPGRADE52%3-1
67%Win75%
60%CT65%
54%T46%
61%Pistol63%
73%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ColorDust2UPGRADE
54%CT side48%
55%T side42%
53%Pistol38%
95%After win83%
12%After loss0%
ColorAnubisUPGRADE
48%CT side52%
62%T side58%
36%Pistol55%
100%After win82%
11%After loss22%
ColorAncientUPGRADE
60%CT side65%
54%T side46%
61%Pistol63%
73%After win80%
14%After loss0%
Pistol rounds51% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol89% · 82% · Color keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol12% · 9% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Color vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapCOLUPG
NukeCOL bann/a0g40%2-3
Color on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheUPG ban29%2-525%1-3
Dust2COL pick67%12-638%3-5
AnubisUPG pick57%4-370%7-3
InfernoCOL ban57%4-367%2-1
MirageUPG ban82%9-250%1-1
Ancientdecider67%6-375%3-1
Each team's usual first ban: Color Nuke · UPGRADE Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Color
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/37 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 37 maps they won, 8 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 downvs The Last ResortAncientfrom 4 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 4 downvs SPARTAMiragefrom 4 downvs SPARTADust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/22 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 22 maps they lost, 7 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs SPARTADust2led 5 · lost 19-22vs SPARTAMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs B8Ancientled 5 · lost 10-13vs MetizportCacheled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadDust2from 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTADust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs SPARTADust219-22vs The Last ResortAncient16-13vs HOTUAnubis22-25vs EACAnubis14-16vs INOX DivisionDust216-14
UPGRADE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/19 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 9 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 downvs INOX DivisionAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 6 downvs HOTUNukefrom 5 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/17 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 17 maps they lost, 6 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FORZE ReloadDust2led 6 · lost 7-13vs XcityAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Black PhoenixNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs HOTUNuke19-15vs FORZE ReloadDust216-14vs INOX DivisionAncient16-14