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Predictions / BRUTE vs BET-M · match preview
BRUTE vs BET-M: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
BRUTE
World #73 · 40-36
VS
2026-09-20 14:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
BET-M
World #77 · 45-39
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
48%52%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. No odds yet. Firepower clearly favours BET-M.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BRUTEpullBET-M
Team strength1574
159554/46 BET
Track record40–36
45–3951/49 BET
Recent formWWLWW
WLWWW52/48 BRU
Roster rating1.09
1.1478/22 BET
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 98% our own signal (175 maps of BRUTE, 198 of BET-M).
Bottom line: BET-M to beat BRUTE, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBRUTE · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BET-M · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#280-22-0
BRUTE vs HOTU
Jul 12LDust22-13Cache6-13BET-M vs HOTU
Apr 4WNuke13-7Dust213-8
1win#382-01-4
BRUTE vs 1win
Sep 4WAnubis13-11Dust225-22
Nemiga#391-24-8
BRUTE vs Nemiga
Sep 4LCache13-11Dust211-13Anubis4-13BET-M vs Nemiga
Sep 15LNuke7-13Ancient13-10Anubis23-25Apr 3LAnubis16-19Nuke13-4Ancient5-13Mar 11LAnubis13-3Nuke13-16Ancient14-16+1 earlier meeting
fnatic#421-42-1
BET-M vs fnatic
Feb 11WAncient13-8Dust29-13Inferno13-7
GenOne#564-00-2
BET-M vs GenOne
Jul 25LInferno11-13Dust23-13
Acend#583-21-4
9INE#652-22-1
BET-M vs 9INE
Apr 30WInferno13-11Ancient5-13Dust213-4
QUAZAR#1022-22-0
BET-M vs QUAZAR
Mar 10WAnubis13-10Inferno13-7Map lab
BET-M65%to win the Bo3 · most likely BET-M 2-0
If the veto goes
BRUTE 35%how the series ends65% BET-M
10%2-047%
25%2-118%
BRUTE35%18-15vsBET-M65%21-9
55%Win70%
55%CT60%
44%T56%
53%Pistol55%
89%Conv82%
BRUTE27%8-11vsBET-M73%27-13
42%Win68%
45%CT63%
46%T52%
50%Pistol55%
84%Conv86%
BRUTE58%22-20vsBET-M42%17-22
52%Win44%
55%CT49%
42%T50%
60%Pistol54%
82%Conv76%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BRUTEMirageBET-M
55%CT side60%
44%T side56%
53%Pistol55%
89%After win82%
13%After loss4%
BRUTENukeBET-M
45%CT side63%
46%T side52%
50%Pistol55%
84%After win86%
42%After loss14%
BRUTEDust2BET-M
55%CT side49%
42%T side50%
60%Pistol54%
82%After win76%
9%After loss14%
Pistol rounds55% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol85% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 11% · BRUTE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BRUTE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BET-M habitually bans Overpass, BRUTE's strongest maps (Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 52/85), not an opponent read, so expect BRUTE to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapBRUBET
AncientBRU ban36%4-734%15-29
AnubisBET ban58%11-853%8-7
MirageBRU pick55%18-1570%21-9
NukeBET pick42%8-1168%27-13
InfernoBRU ban43%9-1257%16-12
CacheBET ban44%4-5n/a0g
BRUTE on Cache
W
G2 Ares13–114d agoWNemiga13–1115d agoWDESEMPREGO13–1015d agoL
Nexus7–131mo agoW9INE13–92mo agoL
Eternal Fire10–132mo agoLQUAZAR1–132mo agoLfnatic9–132mo agoBET-M on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2decider52%22-2044%17-22
Each team's usual first ban: BRUTE Ancient · BET-M Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BRUTE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/89 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 36 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs benched godsOverpassfrom 8 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 7 downvs UrsaOverpassfrom 7 downvs NEW VISIONDust2from 7 downvs Rune EatersOverpassfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/84 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 25 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AtreidesMirageled 10 · lost 13-16vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs ASTRALAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fire FluxMirageled 6 · lost 12-16vs illwillInfernoled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs benched godsOverpassfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AtreidesMirageled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedAncient14-16vs AMMirage16-14vs BebopDust216-13vs BebopAnubis19-17vs illwillInferno13-16
BET-M
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/104 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 26 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs NemesisDust2from 8 downvs ex-RUSTECNukefrom 7 downvs ButterflyInfernofrom 6 downvs SINNERSAncientfrom 5 downvs OramondAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/92 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 92 maps they lost, 19 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs WalczakiNukeled 8 · lost 13-16vs NemigaAnubisled 7 · lost 16-19vs 1winInfernoled 6 · lost 19-22vs GenOneInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs 1winAncientled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NemesisDust2from 8 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs WalczakiNukeled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs FAVBETInferno16-13vs OramondAncient19-17vs EYEBALLERSDust216-13vs FORZE ReloadNuke19-16vs JiJieHaoDust215-19