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Predictions / INOX Division vs BAKS · match preview
INOX Division vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
INOX Division
World #59 · 57-29
VS
2026-09-22 11:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
BAKS
World #83 · 15-11
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
53%47%
51%
1.811.87Market · 2 books
49%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. Bookmakers lean INOX Division at 51%. Form clearly favours BAKS, firepower clearly favours BAKS.
Likely mapsInferno · Cache · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INOX DivisionpullBAKS
Team strength1579
157751/49 INO
Track record57–29
15–1154/46 INO
Recent formLLWLL
WLWWL71/29 BAK
Roster rating1.14
1.0970/30 BAK
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 51% for INOX Division (1.81 / 1.87) and we land at 53%, the same read. This read is 94% our own signal (209 maps of INOX Division, 67 of BAKS).
Bottom line: INOX Division to beat BAKS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINOX Division · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BAKS · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| turbo★ | 1.05 | 74.5 | 72.8% | 64% | 1.15 |
| whisper | 1.08 | 74.7 | 71.4% | 63% | 1.13 |
| danistzz | 1.15 | 72.5 | 74.7% | 38% | 1.09 |
| Norwi | 0.94 | 72.4 | 68.7% | 47% | 1.05 |
| xdENiSZERA | 1.02 | 70.1 | 73.2% | 55% | 1.03 |
Recent form
INOX Division
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsCOLColor#570-20-1
INOX Division vs Color
Sep 13LInferno4-13Dust214-16BAKS vs Color
Aug 24LInferno4-13
ex-RUSTEC#674-02-1
BAKS vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 18WDust27-13Cache13-10Nuke13-8
FORZE Reload#750-42-0
BAKS vs FORZE Reload
Sep 13WCache13-8Nuke19-17
Black Phoenix#892-13-3
INOX Division vs Black Phoenix
Sep 10WNuke13-4Dust21-13Inferno13-5
BASEMENT BOYS#931-21-2
INOX Division vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 16LAncient12-16Nuke13-7Dust211-13BAKS vs BASEMENT BOYS
Aug 15LCache5-13Nuke13-4Dust24-13
G2 Ares#1032-12-1
INOX Division vs G2 Ares
Jul 26WDust214-16Anubis16-12Inferno13-8BAKS vs G2 Ares
Sep 17WInferno11-13Cache13-9Ancient22-20EX-ex-RUBY#1045-42-1
INOX Division vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WDust214-16Nuke13-9Ancient13-9Jun 14WNuke13-5Ancient11-13Dust213-2May 10LDust213-4Overpass7-13Nuke19-22BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5
Misa#1102-03-3
INOX Division vs Misa
Aug 15WAnubis13-7Inferno13-8Map lab
INOX Division52%to win the Bo3 · most likely INOX Division 2-1
If the veto goes
INOX Division 52%how the series ends48% BAKS
11%2-025%
41%2-123%
INOX Division70%29-17vsBAKS30%4-6
63%Win40%
54%CT43%
53%T47%
51%Pistol40%
72%Conv63%
INOX Division16%5-8vsBAKS84%13-3
38%Win81%
47%CT62%
44%T53%
58%Pistol53%
73%Conv88%
INOX Division64%30-14vsBAKS36%6-5
68%Win55%
61%CT59%
53%T40%
49%Pistol55%
79%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INOX DivisionInfernoBAKS
54%CT side43%
53%T side47%
51%Pistol40%
72%After win63%
33%After loss8%
INOX DivisionCacheBAKS
47%CT side62%
44%T side53%
58%Pistol53%
73%After win88%
0%After loss13%
INOX DivisionNukeBAKS
61%CT side59%
53%T side40%
49%Pistol55%
79%After win83%
36%After loss20%
Pistol rounds51% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol75% · 81% · BAKS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol31% · 14% · INOX Division fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INOX Division vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BAKS habitually bans Anubis, INOX Division's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Anubis, Inferno, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 24/26), not an opponent read, so expect INOX Division to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapINOBAK
MirageINO bann/a0g57%4-3
INOX Division on Mirage
no recent maps
AnubisBAK ban63%10-6n/a0g
INOX Division on Anubis
W
UPGRADE13–83d agoW
PCIFIC13–514d agoWJust Players13–825d agoWMisa13–71mo agoW
1win19–162mo agoL
Nordic Partners6–132mo agoWG2 Ares16–122mo agoL
Inner Circle Academy10–132mo agoBAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoINO pick63%29-1740%4-6
CacheBAK pick38%5-881%13-3
AncientINO ban62%21-1386%6-1
Dust2BAK ban64%27-1540%6-9
Nukedecider68%30-1455%6-5
Each team's usual first ban: INOX Division Mirage · BAKS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INOX Division
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/130 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 32 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 downvs SPARTAOverpassfrom 8 downvs MANANukefrom 7 downvs OmegaOverpassfrom 6 downvs HYPERSPIRITInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/79 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 27 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22vs MANANukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs NemesisInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs The Last ResortCacheled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Black PhoenixNukefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYNukeled 7 · lost 19-22
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs TDKOverpass13-16vs WalczakiDust216-13vs ex-RUBYNuke19-22vs HOTUDust222-25vs SPARTANuke20-22
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/39 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 39 maps they won, 13 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 downvs eternal premiumMiragefrom 5 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 5 downvs XcityInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/28 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 28 maps they lost, 7 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKE ProspectsDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 4 · lost 7-13vs CYBERSHOKECacheled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K28Dust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20