Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / UPGRADE vs Just Players · match preview
UPGRADE vs Just Players: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
UPGRADE
World #86 · 8-8
VS
2026-09-22 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
Just Players
World #126 · 42-37
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
51%49%
58%
1.582.2Market · 5 books
42%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean UPGRADE at 58%. Form slightly favours Just Players, firepower slightly favours Just Players.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
UPGRADEpullJust Players
Team strength1534
155254/46 JUS
Track record8–8
42–3754/46 JUS
Recent formLLWWL
WLWLW61/39 JUS
Roster rating1.07
1.1367/33 JUS
Bookmakers imply 58% for UPGRADE (1.58 / 2.2); we land 7 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 90% our own signal (40 maps of UPGRADE, 192 of Just Players).
Bottom line: UPGRADE to beat Just Players, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsUPGRADE · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pleynnn★ | 1.13 | 83.2 | 73.1% | 60% | 1.22 |
| SquEzxc | 1.07 | 73.6 | 72.2% | 32% | 1.07 |
| DAN9ARMATURA | 0.94 | 67.6 | 72.5% | 59% | 1.03 |
| dezl3bio | 0.98 | 74.9 | 70.1% | 55% | 1.03 |
| tw1sterzaza | 0.93 | 72.1 | 69.7% | 53% | 1.01 |
Just Players · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bl1x1★ | 1.21 | 79.6 | 75.3% | 66% | 1.27 |
| sstiNiX | 1.12 | 82.5 | 72.1% | 63% | 1.21 |
| sm3t | 1.03 | 77.2 | 70.3% | 58% | 1.1 |
| h1te | 1.08 | 70.2 | 70.5% | 34% | 1.06 |
| Temny Prince | 0.87 | 69.8 | 72.7% | 65% | 1 |
Recent form
UPGRADE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nuclear TigeRES#472-10-2
UPGRADE vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 13WDust25-13Cache13-8Anubis13-11Just Players vs Nuclear TigeRES
Aug 4LDust211-13Anubis9-13
INOX Division#592-11-4
UPGRADE vs INOX Division
Sep 18WAnubis8-13Nuke13-5Ancient16-14
BET-M#771-20-2
UPGRADE vs BET-M
Aug 26LNuke11-13Anubis13-10Dust210-13Just Players vs BET-M
Sep 18LAncient11-13Nuke5-13
CYBERSHOKE#872-10-2
UPGRADE vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 13WCache11-13Dust213-7Ancient13-9Just Players vs CYBERSHOKE
Jul 23LDust24-13Mirage11-13
Black Phoenix#891-24-2
UPGRADE vs Black Phoenix
Aug 28LCache11-13Anubis13-4Nuke11-13
PCIFIC#1072-02-0
UPGRADE vs PCIFIC
Sep 16WInferno13-8Anubis13-2Just Players vs PCIFIC
Aug 18WMirage13-6Dust213-9
HYPERSPIRIT#1392-02-1
UPGRADE vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 29WInferno13-7Ancient13-6Just Players vs HYPERSPIRIT
Aug 21WCache6-13Ancient13-11Dust213-4Map lab
Just Players60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Just Players 2-0
If the veto goes
UPGRADE 40%how the series ends60% Just Players
14%2-039%
26%2-122%
UPGRADE43%7-5vsJust Players57%8-4
58%Win67%
49%CT50%
57%T56%
54%Pistol63%
85%Conv73%
UPGRADE32%1-3vsJust Players68%33-20
25%Win62%
65%CT60%
24%T47%
75%Pistol51%
67%Conv83%
UPGRADE54%3-1vsJust Players46%25-16
75%Win61%
65%CT57%
46%T52%
63%Pistol44%
80%Conv89%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
UPGRADEAnubisJust Players
49%CT side50%
57%T side56%
54%Pistol63%
85%After win73%
18%After loss11%
UPGRADEMirageJust Players
65%CT side60%
24%T side47%
75%Pistol51%
67%After win83%
50%After loss21%
UPGRADEAncientJust Players
65%CT side57%
46%T side52%
63%Pistol44%
80%After win89%
0%After loss30%
Pistol rounds60% · 50% · UPGRADE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 84% · Just Players keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 24% · Just Players fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, UPGRADE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Just Players habitually bans Inferno, UPGRADE's strongest maps (Inferno, Ancient all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 69/81), not an opponent read, so expect UPGRADE to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapUPGJUS
CacheUPG ban25%1-325%2-6
InfernoJUS ban67%2-1n/a0g
Just Players on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisUPG pick58%7-567%8-4
MirageJUS pick25%1-362%33-20
Dust2UPG ban38%3-541%15-22
NukeJUS ban40%2-333%10-20
Ancientdecider75%3-161%25-16
Each team's usual first ban: UPGRADE Cache · Just Players Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
UPGRADE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/19 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 9 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 downvs INOX DivisionAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 6 downvs HOTUNukefrom 5 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/21 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 8 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ColorMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs FORZE ReloadDust2led 6 · lost 7-13vs XcityAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Black PhoenixNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs HOTUNuke19-15vs FORZE ReloadDust216-14vs INOX DivisionAncient16-14vs ColorAnubis14-16
Just Players
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/97 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 42 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs Spirit AcademyMiragefrom 8 downvs SAWAnubisfrom 7 downvs Endless JourneyMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/91 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 91 maps they lost, 29 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs LavkedAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs Lazer CatsAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorMirageled 5 · lost 22-25vs eLITenergyAncientled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NEW VISIONAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs eLITenergyOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs yngodsAnubis16-14vs OlyBetAncient14-16vs SPARTAOverpass22-20vs TrickedMirage16-13vs TrickedNuke13-16