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Predictions / Nuclear TigeRES vs 1win · match preview
Nuclear TigeRES vs 1win: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier
Nuclear TigeRES
World #54 · 67-38
VS
2026-09-09 08:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
1win
World #43 · 54-32
50%50%
38%
2.481.49Market · 13 books
62%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean 1win at 62%. Form clearly favours 1win, firepower clearly favours 1win.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Nuclear TigeRESpull1win
Team strength1657
166652/48 1WI
Track record67–3854–3250/50
Recent formLLLWW
WWWLW75/25 1WI
Roster rating1.12
1.1277/23 1WI
Head-to-head6 maps6 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 38% for Nuclear TigeRES (2.48 / 1.49); we land 12 points higher at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (241 maps of Nuclear TigeRES, 206 of 1win). Head-to-head they've met 6 times: split 3–3.
Bottom line: Nuclear TigeRES to beat 1win, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Nuclear TigeRES
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents6d ago
Nuclear TigeRES0 : 2
1win◆ same lineup4mo ago 1win2 : 0 Nuclear TigeRES!5mo ago 1win0 : 2 Nuclear TigeRES!6mo ago Nuclear TigeRES2 : 0 1win!7mo ago 1win0 : 2 Nuclear TigeRES!7mo ago Nuclear TigeRES0 : 2 1win!
Nuclear TigeRES0 : 2 1win◆ same lineup4mo ago 1win2 : 0 Nuclear TigeRES!⚠ Different lineup
1win
outQikert, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz
inArtFr0st, Ax1Le, BELCHONOKK, fame, nafany
1win0 : 2 Nuclear TigeRES!⚠ Different lineup
1win
outQikert, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz
inArtFr0st, Ax1Le, BELCHONOKK, fame, nafany
Nuclear TigeRES2 : 0 1win!⚠ Different lineup
1win
outQikert, cronuss, lattykk, oz1k, reyoz
inArtFr0st, Ax1Le, BELCHONOKK, fame, nafany
1win0 : 2 Nuclear TigeRES!⚠ Different lineup
1win
outHObbit, cronuss, interz, lattykk, oz1k
inArtFr0st, Ax1Le, BELCHONOKK, fame, nafany
Nuclear TigeRES0 : 2 1win!⚠ Different lineup
1win
outHObbit, cronuss, interz, lattykk, oz1k
inArtFr0st, Ax1Le, BELCHONOKK, fame, nafany
magic#204-31-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs magic
Sep 2WAnubis13-11Ancient13-5Apr 25WAnubis13-9Mirage11-13Ancient13-6Mar 23LAnubis10-13Mirage15-191win vs magic
Feb 1LOverpass3-13Mirage13-11Inferno7-13
HEROIC#300-22-1
Nuclear TigeRES vs HEROIC
Sep 4LAncient6-13Dust217-191win vs HEROIC
Sep 6WDust28-13Inferno13-9Mirage13-11
100 Thieves#334-20-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs 100 Thieves
Jul 23WAncient19-15Mirage8-13Inferno13-7May 19WAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage19-171win vs 100 Thieves
Aug 9LAncient14-16Anubis6-13
K27#377-34-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs K27
Aug 30WAnubis13-9Cache13-11Jun 17WMirage9-13Anubis13-9Nuke13-9May 28WAnubis13-8Nuke13-9+1 earlier meeting
EYEBALLERS#422-13-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs EYEBALLERS
Jan 22WInferno13-6Mirage7-13Anubis13-6
Nemesis#448-20-5
Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis
Aug 31WDust25-13Inferno13-7Jun 17WNuke10-13Dust213-9Ancient13-7Feb 14WAncient13-7Inferno13-9+1 earlier meeting
Acend#462-12-1
Nuclear TigeRES vs Acend
Apr 20WInferno7-13Ancient13-6Dust213-41win vs Acend
Aug 9WAnubis13-6Ancient3-13Dust213-10
SINNERS#501-41-2
1win vs SINNERS
Jan 30LDust211-13Ancient13-7Overpass6-13Firepower
roster ratingsNuclear TigeRES · avg 1.12 · top +0.06
1win · avg 1.12 · top +0.09
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ax1Le | 49 | 1.14 | 82.6 | 76.4% | 51% | 1.21 |
| ArtFr0st | 49 | 1.27 | 70 | 75.4% | 25% | 1.14 |
| fame | 49 | 1.01 | 67.6 | 74.6% | 58% | 1.11 |
| BELCHONOKK | 47 | 1.01 | 74.3 | 72% | 59% | 1.09 |
| nafany | 49 | 0.89 | 71.2 | 69.5% | 58% | 1.04 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nuclear TigeRES vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNUC1WI
MirageNUC ban41%11-1665%22-12
Nuke1WI ban42%16-22n/a0g
Nuclear TigeRES on Nuke
W
Nemiga13–1010d agoL
SPARTA10–1316d agoW
Butterfly13–71mo agoW
Sashi13–71mo agoL
Echo14–162mo agoLEcho5–132mo agoL
MOUZ11–132mo agoLNemesis10–133mo ago1win on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientNUC pick73%45-1755%22-18
Dust21WI pick47%21-2462%34-21
InfernoNUC ban67%16-870%14-6
Anubis1WI ban71%30-1245%9-11
Cachedecider100%3-067%6-3
Each team's usual first ban: Nuclear TigeRES Overpass · 1win Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nuclear TigeRES57%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: Nuclear TigeRES 68% clear · Dust2: 1win 64% · Cache: Nuclear TigeRES 60%WhyNuclear TigeRES hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNuclear TigeRES 57%: 2-1 33%, 2-0 24% · 1win 43%: 2-1 22%, 2-0 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Nuclear TigeRES 57%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Nuclear TigeRES only lead because their Ancient & Cache is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.43% 1win
Ancient
Nuclear TigeRES68%1win32%
45-17record22-18
73%win55%
56%CT win53%
55%T win49%
49%pistol53%
80%convert79%
Dust2
Nuclear TigeRES36%1win64%
21-24record34-21
47%win62%
46%CT win50%
53%T win56%
59%pistol49%
89%convert83%
Cache
Nuclear TigeRES60%1win40%
3-0record6-3
100%win67%
72%CT win51%
41%T win56%
50%pistol39%
100%convert71%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NUCct
NUCt
1WIct
1WIt
NUCpistol
NUCconv
NUCeco
1WIpistol
1WIconv
1WIeco
Ancientpool
56%330/589
55%393/711
53%196/368
49%208/428
49%61/124
80%49/61
24%15/63
53%42/80
79%33/42
11%4/38
Dust2pool
46%216/465
53%251/477
50%253/501
56%352/624
59%53/90
89%47/53
14%5/37
49%54/110
83%45/54
16%9/56
Cachepool
72%26/36
41%12/29
51%51/100
56%49/87
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
39%7/18
71%5/7
18%2/11
Mirageban
57%182/318
40%102/253
62%229/369
47%155/330
57%31/54
97%30/31
13%3/23
57%39/68
90%35/39
17%5/29
Nukeban
56%244/439
41%155/381
n/a
n/a
46%35/76
69%24/35
15%6/41
n/a
n/a
n/a
Infernoban
58%132/229
54%146/268
49%107/217
53%115/218
65%31/48
84%26/31
6%1/17
48%19/40
74%14/19
19%4/21
Anubisban
53%217/408
60%262/435
45%81/179
56%130/234
46%39/84
90%35/39
13%6/45
50%20/40
85%17/20
0%0/20
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Nuclear TigeRES wins more pistol rounds: 53% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Nuclear TigeRES usually win the next round too (85% vs 81%). Lose the pistol → Nuclear TigeRES fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 14%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nuclear TigeRES
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i41/142 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 142 maps they won, 41 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs 1winAnubisfrom 6 downvs SashiNukefrom 6 downvs Spirit AcademyCachefrom 6 downvs MOUZ NXTDust2from 5 downvs OxujiInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/99 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 99 maps they lost, 47 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19vs illwillInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 8 · lost 15-19vs magicMirageled 7 · lost 15-19vs 100 ThievesAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 1winAnubisfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs Gentle MatesInferno15-19vs KOLESIEAncient16-13vs OramondMirage16-14vs WHITEBIRDInferno19-17vs MOUZ NXTAncient16-13
1win
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i41/118 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 118 maps they won, 41 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs UNiTYAncientfrom 9 downvs MINLATEInfernofrom 7 downvs K27Overpassfrom 7 downvs UrsaInfernofrom 6 downvs NemigaMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/80 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 80 maps they lost, 26 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs magicInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs NemigaOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs SINNERSDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Nuclear TigeRESAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UNiTYAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs magicInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs GenOneInferno22-20vs illwillDust212-16vs MINLATEInferno19-17vs UrsaInferno19-15vs K27Overpass19-16