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Predictions / DENDELE vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
DENDELE vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier
DENDELE
World #35 · 3-6
VS
2026-09-09 17:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #– · 12-5
50%50%
80%
1.174.56Market · 2 books
20%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean DENDELE at 80%. Strength slightly favours Turma do Pagode, record slightly favours Turma do Pagode, form clearly favours Turma do Pagode, firepower slightly favours Turma do Pagode.
Likely mapsCache · Ancient · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DENDELEpullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1515
157362/38 TUR
Track record3–6
12–566/34 TUR
Recent formLLLLL
WWWLW88/12 TUR
Roster rating1.06
1.1270/30 TUR
Bookmakers imply 80% for DENDELE (1.17 / 4.56); we land 30 points lower at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 84% our own signal (23 maps of DENDELE, 39 of Turma do Pagode).
Bottom line: DENDELE to beat Turma do Pagode, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Firepower
roster ratingsDENDELE · avg 1.06 · top +0.26
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, DENDELE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDENTUR
Dust2DEN bann/a0g64%7-4
DENDELE on Dust2
no recent maps
NukeTUR ban50%1-10%0-3
CacheDEN pick57%4-3100%1-0
DENDELE on Cache
WColor13–66d agoW
EYEBALLERS13–36d agoL
Aurora7–1311d agoL
Spirit7–1313d agoW
JiJieHao13–91mo agoL
FaZe7–132mo agoW
FURIA16–142mo agoTurma do Pagode on Cache
W
Yawara13–91d agoAncientTUR pick0%0-377%10-3
MirageDEN ban20%1-4100%1-0
DENDELE on Mirage
LColor8–136d agoLEYEBALLERS9–136d agoLAurora12–1611d agoWFaZe13–102mo agoLFURIA6–132mo agoTurma do Pagode on Mirage
W
Bounty Hunters13–412d agoInfernoTUR ban50%1-125%1-3
Anubisdecider75%3-167%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: DENDELE Dust2 · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Turma do Pagode60%to win the seriesiMap edgesCache: Turma do Pagode 52% toss-up · Ancient: Turma do Pagode 71% clear · Anubis: DENDELE 54% toss-upWhyTurma do Pagode hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesDENDELE 40%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 14% · Turma do Pagode 60%: 2-0 37%, 2-1 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
DENDELE 40%Turma do Pagode are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Turma do Pagode 2-0.60% Turma do Pagode
Cache
DENDELE48%Turma do Pagode52%
4-3record1-0
57%win100%
43%CT win58%
58%T win60%
43%pistol0%
83%convert–
Ancient
DENDELE29%Turma do Pagode71%
0-3record10-3
0%win77%
50%CT win67%
30%T win49%
33%pistol65%
100%convert94%
Anubis
DENDELE54%Turma do Pagode46%
3-1record2-1
75%win67%
60%CT win52%
52%T win50%
50%pistol83%
75%convert80%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
DENct
DENt
TURct
TURt
DENpistol
DENconv
DENeco
TURpistol
TURconv
TUReco
Cachepool
43%26/61
58%46/80
58%7/12
60%6/10
43%6/14
83%5/6
13%1/8
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
Ancientpool
50%16/32
30%10/33
67%94/140
49%67/138
33%2/6
100%2/2
50%2/4
65%17/26
94%16/17
11%1/9
Anubispool
60%29/48
52%14/27
52%17/33
50%17/34
50%4/8
75%3/4
0%0/4
83%5/6
80%4/5
0%0/1
Dust2ban
n/a
n/a
56%67/119
53%60/114
n/a
n/a
n/a
64%14/22
64%9/14
25%2/8
Nukeban
80%12/15
23%3/13
47%17/36
13%3/23
50%2/4
100%1/1
0%0/2
33%2/6
50%1/2
0%0/4
Mirageban
40%23/58
49%25/51
75%9/12
80%4/5
50%5/10
80%4/5
40%2/5
50%1/2
100%1/1
100%1/1
Infernoban
58%14/24
48%11/23
47%22/47
40%17/43
25%1/4
100%1/1
33%1/3
63%5/8
40%2/5
0%0/3
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Turma do Pagode wins more pistol rounds: 65% vs 43%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Turma do Pagode usually win the next round too (91% vs 83%). Lose the pistol → DENDELE fight back to win the next round more often (19% vs 8%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
DENDELE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/10 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 2 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs FaZeMiragefrom 3 downvs SAWInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/13 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 13 maps they lost, 4 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 7 · lost 14-16vs AuroraMirageled 6 · lost 12-16vs SpiritAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs EYEBALLERSAncientled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FaZeMiragefrom 3 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs FURIACache16-14vs JiJieHaoInferno14-16vs AuroraMirage12-16
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/24 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 24 maps they won, 6 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 4 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 4 downvs BESTIA AcademyAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/15 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 15 maps they lost, 3 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs IsurusAncientled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14