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Predictions / Chicken Coop vs Marsborne · match preview
Chicken Coop vs Marsborne: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier
Chicken Coop
World #183 · 23-16
VS
2026-09-10 02:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Marsborne
World #84 · 43-26
31%69%
29%
3.21.31Market · 12 books
71%The call
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Chicken Coop. Bookmakers lean Marsborne at 71%. Strength clearly favours Marsborne, record slightly favours Marsborne, form clearly favours Marsborne, firepower clearly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsNuke · Inferno · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Chicken CooppullMarsborne
Team strength1553
167675/25 MAR
Track record23–16
43–2658/42 MAR
Recent formLLLWL
WWWWW81/19 MAR
Roster rating1.15
1.1693/7 MAR
Head-to-head4 maps4 maps50/50
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 29% for Chicken Coop (3.2 / 1.31) and we land at 31%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (90 maps of Chicken Coop, 160 of Marsborne). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Chicken Coop leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat Chicken Coop, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Chicken Coop
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents10d ago
Marsborne2 : 0
Chicken Coop!3mo ago Chicken Coop3 : 2 Marsborne!3mo ago Marsborne0 : 2 Chicken Coop!
Marsborne2 : 0 Chicken Coop!⚠ Different lineup
Chicken Coop
outCrisp, REKMEISTER, jared, mds, milesd
Chicken Coop3 : 2 Marsborne!⚠ Different lineup
Chicken Coop
outCrisp, Drop, Fessor, REKMEISTER, jared
Marsborne
outmarekiew
innicx
Marsborne0 : 2 Chicken Coop!⚠ Different lineup
Chicken Coop
outCrisp, Drop, Fessor, REKMEISTER, jared
Marsborne
outmarekiew
innicx
SportsBetExpert#727-74-4
Chicken Coop vs SportsBetExpert
Jul 29LDust213-5Nuke9-13Inferno5-13May 30WOverpass13-10Inferno13-5Mar 28WNuke13-10Mirage13-10+3 earlier meetings
Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8May 24LInferno10-13Anubis2-13+1 earlier meeting
Voca#920-28-14
Chicken Coop vs Voca
May 28LNuke11-13Dust28-13Marsborne vs Voca
Sep 2LNuke22-20Dust25-13Ancient5-13Aug 31LAncient6-13Dust211-13Apr 26WDust24-13Overpass16-14Mirage13-3+5 earlier meetings
LAG#950-46-0
Overtake Sector#1502-36-0
Chicken Coop vs Overtake Sector
Aug 31LMirage11-13Inferno8-13Jun 21WDust26-13Overpass13-9Ancient13-10Marsborne vs Overtake Sector
Sep 1WDust213-8Inferno13-9Jun 13WMirage13-7Inferno13-7May 25WMirage22-20Inferno13-11
regain#1623-55-2
FARFarmVille#1811-21-0
Chicken Coop vs FarmVille
Feb 16LOverpass13-6Inferno9-13Dust211-13Marsborne vs FarmVille
Sep 4Wseries13-6
Zomblers#1922-04-1
Chicken Coop vs Zomblers
Aug 30WInferno13-5Nuke13-9
InControl4-32-0
Chicken Coop vs InControl
Apr 26WNuke3-13Inferno13-6Dust213-8Apr 25LNuke7-13Dust210-13Feb 7WNuke13-5Overpass16-13Marsborne vs InControl
Feb 18WNuke13-5Anubis13-10Firepower
roster ratingsChicken Coop · avg 1.15 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Chicken Coop vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapCHIMAR
AnubisCHI ban0%0-176%13-4
Dust2MAR ban30%6-1454%7-6
NukeCHI pick58%11-853%8-7
InfernoMAR pick57%12-974%28-10
MirageCHI ban67%2-169%18-8
CacheMAR bann/a0g0%0-1
Chicken Coop on Cache
no recent maps
Marsborne on Cache
Lregain5–132mo agoAncientdecider67%8-460%18-12
Each team's usual first ban: Chicken Coop Mirage · Marsborne Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Marsborne54%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Chicken Coop 54% toss-up · Inferno: Marsborne 67% clear · Ancient: Chicken Coop 55% toss-upWhyChicken Coop are favoured on 2 of 3 maps, but only barely: the other maps are near 50/50 (Ancient & Nuke), so Marsborne just need to steal one (~70% to grab at least one).OutcomesChicken Coop 46%: 2-1 28%, 2-0 18% · Marsborne 54%: 2-0 31%, 2-1 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Chicken Coop 46%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Marsborne only lead because their Inferno is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.54% Marsborne
Nuke
Chicken Coop54%Marsborne46%
11-8record8-7
58%win53%
52%CT win54%
50%T win41%
61%pistol47%
78%convert71%
Inferno
Chicken Coop33%Marsborne67%
12-9record28-10
57%win74%
52%CT win64%
60%T win52%
67%pistol62%
82%convert74%
Ancient
Chicken Coop55%Marsborne45%
8-4record18-12
67%win60%
54%CT win60%
55%T win46%
42%pistol65%
100%convert82%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
CHIct
CHIt
MARct
MARt
CHIpistol
CHIconv
CHIeco
MARpistol
MARconv
MAReco
Nukepool
52%98/187
50%103/208
54%84/157
41%58/141
61%23/38
78%18/23
40%6/15
47%14/30
71%10/14
13%2/16
Infernopool
52%109/211
60%119/199
64%220/344
52%221/428
67%28/42
82%23/28
36%5/14
62%47/76
74%35/47
28%8/29
Ancientpool
54%68/126
55%57/104
60%173/290
46%142/306
42%10/24
100%10/10
36%5/14
65%39/60
82%32/39
10%2/21
Anubisban
17%2/12
67%6/9
57%99/173
59%88/150
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
41%14/34
100%14/14
40%8/20
Dust2ban
43%99/228
43%68/160
45%67/149
48%53/110
53%21/40
70%14/20
21%4/19
62%16/26
75%12/16
20%2/10
Mirageban
75%27/36
37%10/27
63%175/278
47%115/244
67%4/6
50%2/4
100%2/2
54%28/52
79%22/28
25%6/24
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
42%5/12
0%0/6
n/a
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Chicken Coop 59%, Marsborne 60%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Chicken Coop usually win the next round too (84% vs 77%). Lose the pistol → Chicken Coop fight back to win the next round more often (37% vs 18%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Chicken Coop
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/49 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 49 maps they won, 15 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 8 downvs InControlOverpassfrom 6 downvs AetherNukefrom 6 downvs SportsBetExpertOverpassfrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/41 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 41 maps they lost, 14 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs OverKnightDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MarsborneDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs LAGNukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs InControlDust2led 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs InControlOverpass16-13vs F5Nuke16-12vs AetherNuke22-20vs regainInferno18-22
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/99 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 37 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs Chicken CoopDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/60 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 23 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17