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Predictions / Azuolas vs G2 Ares · match preview
Azuolas vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier
Azuolas
World #– · 3-2
VS
2026-09-08 17:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
G2 Ares
World #97 · 38-36
58%42%
The call
Azuolas are favoured: our model gives them 58% against G2 Ares. No odds yet. Record slightly favours Azuolas, firepower slightly favours Azuolas.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AzuolaspullG2 Ares
Team strength1516
148856/44 AZU
Track record3–2
38–3659/41 AZU
Recent formWLWWL
WWLLL52/48 AZU
Roster rating1.12
1.0662/38 AZU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 75% our own signal (12 maps of Azuolas, 167 of G2 Ares).
Bottom line: Azuolas to beat G2 Ares, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#732-02-5
Azuolas vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 7WAnubis13-4Nuke13-10G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13
Permitta#1022-21-4
Entropy#1321-22-0
Azuolas vs Entropy
Aug 31LDust213-16Ancient13-9Mirage4-13G2 Ares vs Entropy
May 26WAnubis13-5Inferno13-8Firepower
roster ratingsAzuolas · avg 1.12 · top +0.14
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Azuolas vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
G2 Ares habitually bans Nuke, Azuolas's strongest maps (Ancient, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 73/75), not an opponent read, so expect Azuolas to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapAZUG2
CacheAZU bann/a0g40%2-3
Azuolas on Cache
no recent maps
NukeG2 ban100%3-0n/a0g
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageAZU pick25%1-347%17-19
InfernoG2 pickn/a0g50%17-17
Azuolas on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisAZU ban100%1-040%6-9
AncientG2 ban67%2-150%13-13
Dust2decider0%0-150%16-16
Each team's usual first ban: Azuolas Anubis · G2 Ares Nuke.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
G2 Ares56%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: G2 Ares 60% · Inferno: G2 Ares 50% toss-up · Dust2: G2 Ares 53% toss-upWhyG2 Ares hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesAzuolas 44%: 2-1 24%, 2-0 20% · G2 Ares 56%: 2-0 30%, 2-1 26%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Azuolas 44%It’s nearly a coin-flip. G2 Ares only lead because their Mirage is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.56% G2 Ares
Mirage
Azuolas40%G2 Ares60%
1-3record17-19
25%win47%
41%CT win54%
48%T win47%
50%pistol56%
50%convert75%
Inferno
Azuolas50%G2 Ares50%
thin sample, read with caution
0-0record17-17
–win50%
–CT win52%
–T win48%
–pistol49%
–convert67%
Dust2
Azuolas47%G2 Ares53%
0-1record16-16
0%win50%
33%CT win50%
67%T win47%
50%pistol50%
100%convert59%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
AZUct
AZUt
G2 ct
G2 t
AZUpistol
AZUconv
AZUeco
G2 pistol
G2 conv
G2 eco
Miragepool
41%12/29
48%23/48
54%188/347
47%192/411
50%4/8
50%2/4
25%1/4
56%40/72
75%30/40
28%9/32
Infernopool
n/a
n/a
52%163/311
48%177/371
n/a
n/a
n/a
49%33/68
67%22/33
31%11/35
Dust2pool
33%4/12
67%8/12
50%183/369
47%154/326
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
50%32/64
59%19/32
19%6/32
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
51%29/57
43%26/60
n/a
n/a
n/a
40%4/10
50%2/4
0%0/6
Nukeban
73%24/33
39%14/36
n/a
n/a
33%2/6
100%2/2
50%2/4
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
67%8/12
100%5/5
47%73/156
50%85/171
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
37%11/30
73%8/11
11%2/19
Ancientban
50%18/36
58%19/33
52%145/280
48%121/254
33%2/6
50%1/2
50%2/4
54%28/52
82%23/28
29%7/24
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Azuolas 50%, G2 Ares 51%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → G2 Ares usually win the next round too (68% vs 60%). Lose the pistol → G2 Ares fight back to win the next round more often (26% vs 20%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Azuolas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/7 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 3 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 4 downvs BERGNukefrom 3 downvs Bushido WildcatsAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/5 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 2 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PermittaMirageled 5 · lost 12-16vs EntropyDust2led 4 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PermittaMirageled 5 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs PermittaMirage12-16vs PermittaNuke19-16vs EntropyDust213-16
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/81 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 28 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 downvs BebopDust2from 7 downvs WWDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/86 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs PermittaCacheled 6 · lost 8-13vs PermittaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16