Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Black Phoenix vs ENCE · match preview
Black Phoenix vs ENCE: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
52%48%
46%
1.991.7Market · 7 books
54%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean ENCE at 54%. Form clearly favours ENCE, firepower clearly favours ENCE.
Likely mapsCache · Nuke · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black PhoenixpullENCE
Team strength1509
148655/45 BLA
Track record22–23
31–2955/45 ENC
Recent formLLLLW
WLLWL75/25 ENC
Roster rating1.02
1.0985/15 ENC
Bookmakers imply 46% for Black Phoenix (1.99 / 1.7); we land 6 points higher at 52%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (112 maps of Black Phoenix, 131 of ENCE).
Bottom line: Black Phoenix to beat ENCE, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ENCE · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
JiJieHao#302-10-2
Black Phoenix vs JiJieHao
Jul 31WMirage7-13Dust213-9Cache13-10ENCE vs JiJieHao
Apr 24LOverpass11-13Dust25-13
Nemiga#391-40-2
ENCE vs Nemiga
Jan 29LDust29-13Ancient11-13
CYBERSHOKE#871-22-3
Black Phoenix vs CYBERSHOKE
Aug 8LCache13-10Nuke11-13Dust28-13
UNiTY#921-42-2
EX-ex-RUBY#1044-22-3
LAVLavked#1052-32-0
ENCE vs Lavked
Aug 20WMirage13-8Inferno13-7
HAVU#1254-02-0
ENCE vs HAVU
Aug 1WCache13-10Anubis13-9JUSJust Players#1262-42-1
ENCE vs Just Players
Aug 14WNuke13-7Ancient9-13Anubis22-20Map lab
ENCE57%to win the Bo3 · most likely ENCE 2-1
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 43%how the series ends57% ENCE
25%2-023%
18%2-134%
Black Phoenix62%7-3vsENCE38%4-3
70%Win57%
51%CT52%
49%T45%
60%Pistol43%
58%Conv100%
Black Phoenix41%9-8vsENCE59%15-9
53%Win63%
60%CT59%
39%T52%
44%Pistol44%
93%Conv90%
Black Phoenix34%7-12vsENCE66%18-15
37%Win55%
48%CT54%
46%T51%
47%Pistol55%
83%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixCacheENCE
51%CT side52%
49%T side45%
60%Pistol43%
58%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Black PhoenixNukeENCE
60%CT side59%
39%T side52%
44%Pistol44%
93%After win90%
5%After loss22%
Black PhoenixMirageENCE
48%CT side54%
46%T side51%
47%Pistol55%
83%After win85%
15%After loss7%
Pistol rounds49% · 49% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 89% · ENCE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol9% · 12% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ENCE habitually bans Inferno, Black Phoenix's strongest maps (Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 30/60), not an opponent read, so expect Black Phoenix to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapBLAENC
AncientBLA ban0%0-137%7-12
Dust2ENC ban52%17-1636%4-7
CacheBLA pick70%7-357%4-3
NukeENC pick53%9-863%15-9
AnubisBLA ban8%1-1256%10-8
InfernoENC ban64%7-450%5-5
Miragedecider37%7-1255%18-15
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · ENCE Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/48 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 48 maps they won, 17 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/56 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 19 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/67 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 67 maps they won, 21 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 downvs eLITenergyNukefrom 5 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAnubisfrom 5 downvs AllianceOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/64 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 24 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16vs WBTNukeled 8 · lost 8-13vs illwillMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs illwillAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs JiJieHaoOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis20-22vs fnaticAncient19-17vs illwillMirage13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust213-16vs fnaticOverpass14-16