Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs Nexus · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs Nexus: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 28-17
VS
2026-09-16 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
Nexus
World #142 · 15-19
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
68%32%
58%
1.562.18Market · 2 books
42%The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 68% against Nexus. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 58%. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, record slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, form clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower slightly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullNexus
Team strength1581
148570/30 EX-
Track record28–17
15–1957/43 EX-
Recent formWWWWL
LLLWW76/24 EX-
Roster rating1.13
1.1165/35 EX-
Bookmakers imply 58% for ex-RUSTEC (1.56 / 2.18); we land 10 points higher at 68%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 94% our own signal (206 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 72 of Nexus).
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Nexus, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.21 | 82.7 | 74.6% | 68% | 1.24 |
| youka | 1.27 | 73.8 | 72.8% | 36% | 1.21 |
| KIRO | 1.07 | 76.6 | 79% | 60% | 1.18 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 69.9 | 73% | 56% | 1.03 |
| Brilliance | 0.85 | 70.2 | 69.5% | 56% | 0.99 |
Nexus · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bushido Wildcats#760-23-5
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
UNiTY#922-11-2
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8Nexus vs UNiTY
Aug 9LAncient13-6Mirage11-13Cache14-16
G2 Ares#1034-00-2
Nexus vs G2 Ares
Aug 17LAnubis11-13Inferno15-19EX-ex-RUBY#1040-21-2
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-RUBY
Jul 27LCache9-13Nuke12-16Nexus vs ex-RUBY
Feb 16LAncient9-13Mirage13-4Dust23-13
Noir Verse#1462-12-0
ex-RUSTEC vs Noir Verse
Aug 17WCache13-16Anubis13-9Nexus vs Noir Verse
Jun 14WMirage13-3Overpass13-6Map lab
ex-RUSTEC71%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
ex-RUSTEC 71%how the series ends29% Nexus
51%2-08%
20%2-121%
ex-RUSTEC72%18-12vsNexus28%4-8
60%Win33%
55%CT41%
51%T47%
48%Pistol63%
76%Conv80%
ex-RUSTEC71%14-7vsNexus29%6-8
67%Win43%
50%CT49%
59%T55%
57%Pistol46%
96%Conv100%
ex-RUSTEC49%5-6vsNexus51%1-1
45%Win50%
54%CT54%
52%T60%
55%Pistol100%
92%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-RUSTECDust2Nexus
55%CT side41%
51%T side47%
48%Pistol63%
76%After win80%
19%After loss0%
ex-RUSTECAnubisNexus
50%CT side49%
59%T side55%
57%Pistol46%
96%After win100%
28%After loss27%
ex-RUSTECCacheNexus
54%CT side54%
52%T side60%
55%Pistol100%
92%After win75%
30%After loss–
Pistol rounds52% · 57% · Nexus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 88% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol24% · 17% · ex-RUSTEC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-NEX
AncientEX- bann/a0g38%5-8
ex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeNEX ban45%9-110%0-1
Dust2EX- pick60%18-1233%4-8
AnubisNEX pick67%14-743%6-8
InfernoEX- ban42%5-762%8-5
MirageNEX ban64%7-450%4-4
Cachedecider45%5-650%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Nexus Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/58 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 16 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 downvs EntropyDust2from 5 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/47 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 47 maps they lost, 14 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FortressNukefrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Nexus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/32 (19%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 6 (19%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 19% of their wins were comebacks, not 19% of all games.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 downvs AllianceAnubisfrom 5 downvs PUREAnubisfrom 4 downvs GamersLabDust2from 4 downvs AllianceInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i13/39 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 39 maps they lost, 13 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs kONODust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleAncientled 5 · lost 14-16vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs kONOOverpassled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PUREInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PUREMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAncient15-19vs AllianceInferno16-14vs aimclubInferno16-14vs Inner CircleAncient14-16vs PUREMirage12-16