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Predictions / Black Phoenix vs Lavked · match preview
Black Phoenix vs Lavked: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 23-23
VS
2026-09-18 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
Lavked
World #105 · 57-44
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
49%51%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 49–51. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Lavked, firepower clearly favours Lavked, head-to-head slightly favours Lavked.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black PhoenixpullLavked
Team strength1523152250/50
Track record23–23
57–4456/44 LAV
Recent formWLLLL
WLLWW59/41 LAV
Roster rating1.03
1.0977/23 LAV
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 LAV
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (114 maps of Black Phoenix, 242 of Lavked). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Lavked to beat Black Phoenix, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Lavked · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| azukay★ | 1.08 | 74.5 | 74% | 60% | 1.15 |
| xm1nd | 1.17 | 72.7 | 72.5% | 37% | 1.12 |
| k4nfuz | 1.01 | 69 | 73% | 66% | 1.1 |
| 1NVISIBLEE | 0.91 | 80.5 | 68.2% | 58% | 1.07 |
| sol | 0.91 | 67.2 | 71.8% | 52% | 1.01 |
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents25d ago
Black Phoenix0 : 2LAV Lavked!1mo ago Black Phoenix2 : 1LAV Lavked!
Black Phoenix0 : 2LAV Lavked!⚠ Different lineup
Black Phoenix
outyiksrezo
inMRcreed
Black Phoenix2 : 1LAV Lavked!⚠ Different lineup
Black Phoenix
outyiksrezo
inMRcreed
Lavked
outKENSI, takanashi
inazukay, k4nfuz
Nemiga#391-40-4
Sashi#551-20-2
Black Phoenix vs Sashi
Aug 2LCache6-13Dust213-2Nuke8-13Lavked vs Sashi
May 8LNuke8-13Inferno2-13
INOX Division#591-22-3
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13
EAC#660-21-4
Black Phoenix vs EAC
Jul 24Lseries0-2
ex-RUSTEC#670-22-1
Black Phoenix vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 21LAnubis8-13Inferno14-16Lavked vs ex-RUSTEC
Jul 23WDust25-13Mirage13-9Anubis13-7
Butterfly#743-32-1
Lavked vs Butterfly
Jul 26WAnubis13-11Mirage10-13Nuke13-11
Bushido Wildcats#762-11-2
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7Lavked vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 22LNuke8-13Mirage13-10Dust24-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#820-42-3
Map lab
Lavked64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Lavked 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 36%how the series ends64% Lavked
15%2-036%
21%2-128%
Black Phoenix48%17-16vsLavked52%23-20
52%Win53%
54%CT52%
50%T52%
48%Pistol51%
91%Conv82%
Black Phoenix32%7-12vsLavked68%39-29
37%Win57%
48%CT56%
46%T47%
47%Pistol48%
83%Conv77%
Black Phoenix43%9-8vsLavked57%30-20
53%Win60%
60%CT57%
39%T47%
44%Pistol47%
93%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2Lavked
54%CT side52%
50%T side52%
48%Pistol51%
91%After win82%
15%After loss19%
Black PhoenixMirageLavked
48%CT side56%
46%T side47%
47%Pistol48%
83%After win77%
15%After loss14%
Black PhoenixNukeLavked
60%CT side57%
39%T side47%
44%Pistol47%
93%After win85%
5%After loss17%
Pistol rounds47% · 48% · level, no edge
After a won pistol89% · 81% · Black Phoenix keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol12% · 16% · Lavked fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Lavked habitually bans Inferno, Black Phoenix's strongest maps (Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 61/102), not an opponent read, so expect Black Phoenix to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapBLALAV
AncientBLA ban0%0-163%22-13
InfernoLAV ban64%7-425%4-12
Dust2BLA pick52%17-1653%23-20
MirageLAV pick37%7-1257%39-29
AnubisBLA ban14%2-1247%9-10
CacheLAV ban73%8-30%0-1
Nukedecider53%9-860%30-20
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · Lavked Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/50 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 18 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 downvs ButterflyDust2from 4 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/56 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 19 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WalczakiCachefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
Lavked
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/130 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 47 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-RUBYNukefrom 7 downvs OLDBOYS PLMiragefrom 7 downvs UNiTYMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/110 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 110 maps they lost, 29 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16vs ARCREDMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs UNiTYMirageled 8 · lost 7-13vs SPARTAInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs fnaticMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs ex-RUBYAncient16-14vs ESCAncient13-16vs PhantomMirage16-14vs K27Dust212-16vs QUAZARNuke12-16