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Predictions / QUAZAR vs G2 Ares · match preview
QUAZAR vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
QUAZAR
World #102 · 30-16
VS
2026-09-20 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
G2 Ares
World #103 · 41-42
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
73%27%
62%
1.512.42Market · 24 books
38%The call · high confidence
QUAZAR are favoured: our model gives them 73% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean QUAZAR at 62%. Strength clearly favours QUAZAR, record slightly favours QUAZAR, form clearly favours QUAZAR, firepower clearly favours QUAZAR.
Likely mapsAnubis · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
QUAZARpullG2 Ares
Team strength1601
149771/29 QUA
Track record30–16
41–4260/40 QUA
Recent formWWLWW
LLWLL74/26 QUA
Roster rating1.15
1.1192/8 QUA
Bookmakers imply 62% for QUAZAR (1.51 / 2.42); we land 11 points higher at 73%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (111 maps of QUAZAR, 190 of G2 Ares).
Bottom line: QUAZAR to beat G2 Ares, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsQUAZAR · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
G2 Ares · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
QUAZAR
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#280-22-0
QUAZAR vs HOTU
Jul 14LAnubis9-13Cache8-13G2 Ares vs HOTU
Jul 31WMirage13-8Dust213-6
EAC#662-02-0
QUAZAR vs EAC
Aug 27WNuke13-10Mirage13-9G2 Ares vs EAC
Jul 31WInferno13-6Ancient13-11
ex-RUSTEC#672-00-4
QUAZAR vs ex-RUSTEC
Sep 16WNuke16-12Mirage13-10
BRUTE#732-21-2
G2 Ares vs BRUTE
Sep 15LAncient13-6Cache11-13Mirage5-13
Bushido Wildcats#762-02-5
QUAZAR vs Bushido Wildcats
Jul 13WNuke13-7Inferno13-6G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13
BET-M#770-20-2
QUAZAR vs BET-M
Mar 10LAnubis10-13Inferno7-13G2 Ares vs BET-M
Mar 4LAnubis9-13Ancient10-13
Omega#992-02-1
QUAZAR vs Omega
Sep 3WCache28-26Dust213-10G2 Ares vs Omega
Mar 30WOverpass13-3Mirage11-13Ancient13-8
Permitta#1002-11-4
QUAZAR vs Permitta
Sep 15WMirage8-13Nuke13-10Anubis13-3Map lab
QUAZAR63%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUAZAR 2-1
If the veto goes
QUAZAR 63%how the series ends37% G2 Ares
28%2-018%
35%2-119%
QUAZAR70%12-6vsG2 Ares30%7-9
67%Win44%
61%CT48%
53%T50%
58%Pistol38%
95%Conv67%
QUAZAR39%5-7vsG2 Ares61%22-19
42%Win54%
50%CT54%
50%T49%
46%Pistol50%
73%Conv68%
QUAZAR65%16-8vsG2 Ares35%21-21
67%Win50%
55%CT55%
53%T46%
60%Pistol54%
83%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
QUAZARAnubisG2 Ares
61%CT side48%
53%T side50%
58%Pistol38%
95%After win67%
7%After loss10%
QUAZARInfernoG2 Ares
50%CT side54%
50%T side49%
46%Pistol50%
73%After win68%
8%After loss34%
QUAZARMirageG2 Ares
55%CT side55%
53%T side46%
60%Pistol54%
83%After win78%
0%After loss23%
Pistol rounds56% · 49% · QUAZAR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 72% · QUAZAR keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol4% · 25% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, QUAZAR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapQUAG2
AncientQUA bann/a0g48%14-15
QUAZAR on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeG2 ban57%12-9n/a0g
AnubisQUA pick67%12-644%7-9
InfernoG2 pick42%5-754%22-19
Dust2QUA ban44%8-1047%16-18
CacheG2 ban64%7-422%2-7
Miragedecider67%16-850%21-21
Each team's usual first ban: QUAZAR Ancient · G2 Ares Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
QUAZAR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/65 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 26 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs The Last ResortAnubisfrom 10 downvs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs NAVI JuniorNukefrom 8 downvs RUSTECOverpassfrom 6 downvs WingmanMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/46 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 17 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The Last ResortNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs ENCE AcademyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs WingmanDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs CSDIILITAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs zajezdzaczeMirageled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The Last ResortNukeled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HEROIC AcademyMirage16-14vs CSDIILITMirage16-12vs zajezdzaczeNuke13-16vs RUSTECDust215-19vs M1X KSMirage22-20
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/92 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 31 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i32/98 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 98 maps they lost, 32 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs MisaDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16