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Predictions / Leo vs ex-RUSTEC · match preview
Leo vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
Leo
World #122 · 47-48
VS
2026-09-22 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #67 · 32-20
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
40%60%
40%
2.321.52Market · 2 books
60%The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 60% against Leo. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 60%. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower clearly favours ex-RUSTEC, head-to-head slightly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Leopullex-RUSTEC
Team strength1515
157162/38 EX-
Track record47–48
32–2056/44 EX-
Recent formLWWLW
WWLWL56/44 EX-
Roster rating1.08
1.1175/25 EX-
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 EX-
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 40% for Leo (2.32 / 1.52) and we land at 40%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (237 maps of Leo, 225 of ex-RUSTEC). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-RUSTEC leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Leo, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yiksrezo★ | 1.14 | 80.4 | 73.2% | 68% | 1.21 |
| youka | 1.26 | 74 | 72.1% | 36% | 1.2 |
| shalfey | 1.1 | 76.3 | 74.1% | 61% | 1.15 |
| Brilliance | 0.87 | 71.4 | 69.4% | 56% | 1 |
| jakekeS | 0.91 | 68.1 | 73.3% | 55% | 1 |
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GenOne#562-51-6
Butterfly#740-21-2
Leo vs Butterfly
Aug 27LCache10-13Ancient7-13ex-RUSTEC vs Butterfly
Aug 5LCache10-13Nuke16-14Dust210-13
Bushido Wildcats#767-40-2
Leo vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 15WDust214-16Nuke13-9Cache13-11Aug 20WNuke13-9Mirage3-13Dust213-2Aug 4LNuke6-13Dust213-7Anubis1-13+1 earlier meeting
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22
BET-M#770-20-2
Leo vs BET-M
Sep 15Lseries0-2ex-RUSTEC vs BET-M
Aug 7LNuke14-16Anubis3-13
WW#810-42-0
ex-RUSTEC vs WW
Aug 6WAnubis13-9Dust216-12
ex-Zero Tenacity#822-20-2
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13
UNiTY#924-22-1
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8
Rune Eaters#971-22-1
Leo vs Rune Eaters
Mar 17LOverpass13-5Anubis11-13Dust26-13ex-RUSTEC vs Rune Eaters
Jul 25WNuke6-13Mirage13-10Dust213-9Map lab
ex-RUSTEC62%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUSTEC 2-0
If the veto goes
Leo 38%how the series ends62% ex-RUSTEC
8%2-046%
30%2-116%
Leo44%36-29vsex-RUSTEC56%21-13
55%Win62%
51%CT57%
53%T50%
50%Pistol49%
80%Conv79%
Leo18%12-26vsex-RUSTEC82%16-7
32%Win70%
42%CT52%
47%T57%
45%Pistol59%
79%Conv93%
Leo65%25-15vsex-RUSTEC35%12-14
63%Win46%
59%CT54%
49%T44%
55%Pistol52%
82%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LeoDust2ex-RUSTEC
51%CT side57%
53%T side50%
50%Pistol49%
80%After win79%
17%After loss17%
LeoAnubisex-RUSTEC
42%CT side52%
47%T side57%
45%Pistol59%
79%After win93%
17%After loss26%
LeoNukeex-RUSTEC
59%CT side54%
49%T side44%
55%Pistol52%
82%After win81%
14%After loss8%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 84% · ex-RUSTEC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 16% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEOEX-
MirageLEO ban46%6-747%7-8
AncientEX- ban45%18-22n/a0g
Leo on Ancient
LUNiTY14–16todayLLavked2–1314d agoW
The Last Resort13–618d agoL
Phantom0–1324d agoLButterfly7–1325d agoWGenOne13–628d agoL
HAVU8–131mo agoL
SPARTA9–131mo agoex-RUSTEC on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2LEO pick55%36-2962%21-13
AnubisEX- pick32%12-2670%16-7
InfernoLEO ban46%6-746%6-7
CacheEX- ban43%3-446%6-7
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/109 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 29 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/112 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 112 maps they lost, 34 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/68 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 68 maps they won, 21 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs NexusDust2from 6 downvs ex-MANANukefrom 5 downvs SAW YoungstersAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/56 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs MisaInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LavkedMirageled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16