Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / 3DMAX vs Inner Circle · match preview
3DMAX vs Inner Circle: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
3DMAX
World #23 · 32-40
VS
2026-09-18 11:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
Inner Circle
World #24 · 39-30
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
47%53%
44%
2.11.69Market · 2 books
56%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 56%. Strength slightly favours Inner Circle, record slightly favours Inner Circle, form slightly favours 3DMAX, firepower clearly favours 3DMAX, head-to-head slightly favours Inner Circle.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
3DMAXpullInner Circle
Team strength1574
163362/38 INN
Track record32–40
39–3058/42 INN
Recent formLLWWW
LWLLL57/43 3DM
Roster rating1.07
1.1178/22 3DM
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 INN
Bookmakers imply 44% for 3DMAX (2.1 / 1.69); we land 3 points higher at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (156 maps of 3DMAX, 162 of Inner Circle). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Inner Circle leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Inner Circle to beat 3DMAX, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings3DMAX · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Inner Circle · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.12 | 84.5 | 75.1% | 54% | 1.2 |
| headtr1ck | 1.28 | 72.5 | 75.9% | 35% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 73.1 | 72.3% | 62% | 1.12 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.02 | 73.4 | 73.3% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 0.89 | 66.2 | 71% | 53% | 1.01 |
Recent form
3DMAX
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#10-20-2
3DMAX vs Spirit
Mar 6LNuke10-13Overpass7-13Inner Circle vs Spirit
Jan 18LAncient8-13Dust25-13
MOUZ#31-20-2
3DMAX vs MOUZ
Jul 30LDust213-10Nuke18-22Inferno3-13Inner Circle vs MOUZ
Aug 29LAncient4-13Mirage5-13
Vitality#50-22-0
3DMAX vs Vitality
Feb 2LInferno6-13Dust26-13Inner Circle vs Vitality
Aug 27WAnubis13-8Cache16-13
FUT#76-11-4
FaZe#132-22-0
Inner Circle vs FaZe
Apr 6WNuke13-9Mirage13-9
B8#165-40-4
magic#172-52-0
3DMAX vs magic
Aug 15LDust26-13Ancient7-13Jul 24WCache7-13Ancient16-14Dust213-6May 27LAncient9-13Inferno15-19Inner Circle vs magic
Jul 10WDust213-4Ancient13-6
Alliance#211-21-2
3DMAX vs Alliance
May 28LInferno17-19Dust213-9Anubis8-13Inner Circle vs Alliance
Mar 31LDust27-13Overpass13-11Anubis8-13Map lab
Inner Circle67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Inner Circle 2-0
If the veto goes
3DMAX 33%how the series ends67% Inner Circle
13%2-041%
20%2-126%
3DMAX36%20-18vsInner Circle64%25-12
53%Win68%
50%CT56%
48%T55%
64%Pistol49%
80%Conv78%
3DMAX36%11-16vsInner Circle64%20-16
41%Win56%
45%CT52%
49%T48%
41%Pistol54%
91%Conv79%
3DMAX44%7-5vsInner Circle56%2-0
58%Win100%
56%CT63%
48%T50%
58%Pistol50%
86%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
3DMAXDust2Inner Circle
50%CT side56%
48%T side55%
64%Pistol49%
80%After win78%
33%After loss34%
3DMAXAncientInner Circle
45%CT side52%
49%T side48%
41%Pistol54%
91%After win79%
6%After loss24%
3DMAXCacheInner Circle
56%CT side63%
48%T side50%
58%Pistol50%
86%After win50%
10%After loss50%
Pistol rounds55% · 51% · 3DMAX win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 78% · 3DMAX keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 30% · Inner Circle fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 3DMAX vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Map3DMINN
Mirage3DM bann/a0g46%17-20
3DMAX on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoINN ban38%12-20n/a0g
3DMAX on Inferno
L
BBL7–136d agoW
Acend13–97d agoW
Walczaki13–014d agoL
HEROIC5–1314d agoW
Butterfly13–616d agoL
Natus Vincere9–131mo agoLMOUZ3–132mo agoLWalczaki6–132mo agoInner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust23DM pick53%20-1868%25-12
AncientINN pick41%11-1656%20-16
Anubis3DM ban50%6-653%8-7
NukeINN ban54%14-1248%10-11
Cachedecider58%7-5100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: 3DMAX Mirage · Inner Circle Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
3DMAX
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i16/73 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 73 maps they won, 16 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs B8Nukefrom 9 downvs INFINITECachefrom 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 7 downvs LiquidNukefrom 7 downvs VocaAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/82 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 21 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs VocaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 17-19vs BESTIADust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs B8Nukefrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleNuke16-13vs FUTAncient13-16vs FUTAnubis16-13vs paiNInferno14-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsDust216-14
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/89 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 26 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/72 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 26 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16