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Predictions / BBL vs Liquid · match preview
BBL vs Liquid: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
BBL
World #54 · 4-4
VS
2026-09-18 14:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
Liquid
World #22 · 26-27
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
36%64%
26%
3.621.25Market · 2 books
74%The call
Liquid are favoured: our model gives them 64% against BBL. Bookmakers lean Liquid at 74%. Strength slightly favours Liquid, firepower clearly favours Liquid.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BBLpullLiquid
Team strength1545
161364/36 LIQ
Track record4–4
26–2752/48 BBL
Recent formLWWWL
WWLWW56/44 LIQ
Roster rating1.04
1.1191/9 LIQ
Bookmakers imply 26% for BBL (3.62 / 1.25); we land 10 points higher at 36%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (18 maps of BBL, 119 of Liquid).
Bottom line: Liquid to beat BBL, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBBL · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Liquid · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
3DMAX#232-12-5
fnatic#421-22-0
BBL vs fnatic
Sep 5LCache11-13Inferno13-9Ancient11-13Liquid vs fnatic
Aug 5WDust213-10Anubis13-5Map lab
Liquid55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Liquid 2-1
If the veto goes
BBL 45%how the series ends55% Liquid
25%2-025%
20%2-130%
BBL48%3-3vsLiquid52%14-13
50%Win52%
56%CT58%
41%T45%
42%Pistol57%
80%Conv81%
BBL52%1-0vsLiquid48%10-7
100%Win59%
75%CT57%
33%T44%
50%Pistol53%
0%Conv78%
BBL39%1-2vsLiquid61%4-2
33%Win67%
47%CT56%
42%T57%
17%Pistol58%
100%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BBLNukeLiquid
56%CT side58%
41%T side45%
42%Pistol57%
80%After win81%
0%After loss26%
BBLMirageLiquid
75%CT side57%
33%T side44%
50%Pistol53%
0%After win78%
0%After loss6%
BBLCacheLiquid
47%CT side56%
42%T side57%
17%Pistol58%
100%After win86%
0%After loss20%
Pistol rounds35% · 56% · Liquid win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol71% · 80% · Liquid keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 18% · Liquid fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BBL vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBBLLIQ
Dust2BBL bann/a0g30%6-14
BBL on Dust2
no recent maps
AncientLIQ ban50%1-131%5-11
NukeBBL pick50%3-352%14-13
MirageLIQ pick100%1-059%10-7
AnubisBBL ban0%0-157%8-6
InfernoLIQ ban60%3-259%10-7
Cachedecider33%1-267%4-2
Each team's usual first ban: BBL Dust2 · Liquid Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BBL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/9 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 5 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 4 downvs 3DMAXCachefrom 4 downvs WildcardInfernofrom 4 downvs HOTUNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/9 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 2 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16vs 100 ThievesInfernoled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Black PhoenixInferno13-16vs 3DMAXCache16-13vs WildcardInferno16-12vs HOTUAnubis13-16
Liquid
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/57 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 57 maps they won, 13 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 downvs M80Miragefrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 4 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 4 downvs VitalityAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/60 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 15 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs 3DMAXNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs SashiNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs PARIVISIONDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs G2Mirageled 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OGAncientled 7 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs FalconsNuke14-16vs G2Anubis14-16vs Passion UANuke15-19vs M80Mirage16-13