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Predictions / Inner Circle vs 3DMAX · match preview
Inner Circle vs 3DMAX: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Inner Circle
World #24 · 43-31
VS
2026-09-22 16:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
3DMAX
World #23 · 36-42
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
64%36%
57%
1.642.15Market · 23 books
43%The call
Inner Circle are favoured: our model gives them 64% against 3DMAX. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 57%. Strength slightly favours Inner Circle, record slightly favours Inner Circle, firepower clearly favours 3DMAX, head-to-head slightly favours Inner Circle.
Likely mapsDust2 · Cache · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner Circlepull3DMAX
Team strength1648
159162/38 INN
Track record43–31
36–4258/42 INN
Recent formLWWWW
WWLWL52/48 3DM
Roster rating1.11
1.0775/25 3DM
Head-to-head3 maps
1 maps67/33 INN
Bookmakers imply 57% for Inner Circle (1.64 / 2.15); we land 7 points higher at 64%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (167 maps of Inner Circle, 164 of 3DMAX). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Inner Circle leads 2–0.
Bottom line: Inner Circle to beat 3DMAX, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.12 | 84.2 | 75% | 54% | 1.2 |
| headtr1ck | 1.28 | 72.4 | 76% | 34% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 73 | 72.3% | 61% | 1.11 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.04 | 73.6 | 73.5% | 57% | 1.08 |
| onic | 0.9 | 66.3 | 71% | 53% | 1.01 |
3DMAX · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Inner Circle
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2d ago
Inner Circle13 : 9
3DMAX◆ same lineup8mo ago Inner Circle2 : 1 3DMAX!
Inner Circle13 : 9 3DMAX◆ same lineup8mo ago Inner Circle2 : 1 3DMAX!⚠ Different lineup
Inner Circle
outFlierax
inheadtr1ck
3DMAX
outEx3rcice, bodyy
inKursy, misutaaa
Spirit#10-20-2
Inner Circle vs Spirit
Jan 18LAncient8-13Dust25-133DMAX vs Spirit
Mar 6LNuke10-13Overpass7-13
MOUZ#30-21-2
Inner Circle vs MOUZ
Aug 29LAncient4-13Mirage5-133DMAX vs MOUZ
Jul 30LDust213-10Nuke18-22Inferno3-13
Vitality#52-00-2
Inner Circle vs Vitality
Aug 27WAnubis13-8Cache16-133DMAX vs Vitality
Feb 2LInferno6-13Dust26-13
FUT#71-46-1
FaZe#132-02-2
Inner Circle vs FaZe
Apr 6WNuke13-9Mirage13-9
B8#160-45-4
magic#172-02-5
Inner Circle vs magic
Jul 10WDust213-4Ancient13-6
Alliance#211-21-2
Inner Circle vs Alliance
Mar 31LDust27-13Overpass13-11Anubis8-133DMAX vs Alliance
May 28LInferno17-19Dust213-9Anubis8-13Map lab
Inner Circle66%to win the Bo3 · most likely Inner Circle 2-0
If the veto goes
Inner Circle 66%how the series ends34% 3DMAX
43%2-012%
23%2-123%
Inner Circle62%25-12vs3DMAX38%22-18
68%Win55%
56%CT51%
55%T49%
49%Pistol64%
78%Conv80%
Inner Circle69%4-0vs3DMAX31%7-5
100%Win58%
67%CT56%
54%T48%
63%Pistol58%
60%Conv86%
Inner Circle50%8-8vs3DMAX50%6-6
50%Win50%
53%CT47%
51%T46%
63%Pistol58%
75%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Inner CircleDust23DMAX
56%CT side51%
55%T side49%
49%Pistol64%
78%After win80%
34%After loss34%
Inner CircleCache3DMAX
67%CT side56%
54%T side48%
63%Pistol58%
60%After win86%
33%After loss10%
Inner CircleAnubis3DMAX
53%CT side47%
51%T side46%
63%Pistol58%
75%After win86%
0%After loss10%
Pistol rounds54% · 62% · 3DMAX win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol75% · 82% · 3DMAX keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 24% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINN3DM
InfernoINN bann/a0g39%13-20
Inner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
Mirage3DM ban47%18-20n/a0g
Inner Circle on Mirage
W
INFINITE13–102d agoLB89–139d agoW
Ninjas in Pyjamas13–010d agoLFUT9–1321d agoLMOUZ5–1322d agoW
ASTRAL13–61mo agoWNIO13–01mo agoW
Virtus.pro13–92mo ago3DMAX on Mirage
no recent maps
Dust2INN pick68%25-1255%22-18
Cache3DM pick100%4-058%7-5
NukeINN ban50%11-1150%14-14
Ancient3DM ban56%20-1643%13-17
Anubisdecider50%8-850%6-6
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Inferno · 3DMAX Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/93 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 28 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/73 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 73 maps they lost, 27 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16
3DMAX
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/78 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 78 maps they won, 18 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs B8Nukefrom 9 downvs INFINITECachefrom 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 7 downvs LiquidNukefrom 7 downvs M80Dust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/85 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 85 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 6-13vs VocaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 17-19vs BESTIADust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs B8Nukefrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsInfernoled 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Inner CircleNuke16-13vs FUTAncient13-16vs FUTAnubis16-13vs paiNInferno14-16vs Gaimin GladiatorsDust216-14