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Predictions / Olympus vs Omen · match preview
Olympus vs Omen: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America
Olympus
World #– · 4-2
VS
2026-09-17 00:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · Best of 3
Omen
World #– · 2-2
ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · Best of 3
58%42%
53%
1.731.99Market · 7 books
47%The call
Olympus are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Omen. Bookmakers lean Olympus at 53%. Record slightly favours Olympus, firepower slightly favours Olympus.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
OlympuspullOmen
Team strength1521
149556/44 OLY
Track record4–2
2–264/36 OLY
Recent formWWLLW
WLWL55/45 OLY
Roster rating1.09
1.0568/32 OLY
Bookmakers imply 53% for Olympus (1.73 / 1.99); we land 5 points higher at 58%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 70% our own signal (13 maps of Olympus, 9 of Omen).
Bottom line: Olympus to beat Omen, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsOlympus · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| relan★ | 1.18 | 92.3 | 70% | 59% | 1.34 |
| Bizarre666 | 1.15 | 80.4 | 71.8% | 45% | 1.23 |
| k6rdon | 0.99 | 68.4 | 73.2% | 65% | 1.09 |
| awayy | 0.95 | 60.6 | 69.7% | 60% | 0.99 |
| Sanzh1k33 | 0.74 | 59.5 | 66.8% | 54% | 0.82 |
Omen · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.4iStar gap: the best player rates 0.4 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Olympus53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Olympus 2-0
If the veto goes
Olympus 53%how the series ends48% Omen
28%2-022%
25%2-125%
Olympus55%1-0vsOmen45%0-1
100%Win0%
58%CT58%
67%T27%
0%Pistol0%
–Conv–
Olympus50%1-2vsOmen50%1-2
33%Win33%
67%CT37%
29%T53%
17%Pistol50%
100%Conv67%
Olympus50%2-1thinOmen50%0-0
67%Win–
67%CT–
48%T–
83%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
OlympusMirageOmen
58%CT side58%
67%T side27%
0%Pistol0%
–After win–
0%After loss50%
OlympusInfernoOmen
67%CT side37%
29%T side53%
17%Pistol50%
100%After win67%
0%After loss33%
OlympusNukeOmen
67%CT side–
48%T side–
83%Pistol–
100%After win–
100%After loss–
Pistol rounds43% · 38% · Olympus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 67% · Olympus keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 40% · Omen fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Olympus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Omen habitually bans Ancient, Olympus's strongest maps (Ancient, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 4/5), not an opponent read, so expect Olympus to fight the veto for Ancient.
MapOLYOME
AnubisOLY ban0%0-1100%2-0
Olympus on Anubis
L
Marsborne9–135d agoAncientOME ban75%3-10%0-1
Olympus on Ancient
W
Wanted Goons13–91d agoLMarsborne9–135d agoWWanted Goons13–73mo agoW
LAG13–113mo agoOmen on Ancient
L
Zomblers4–131d agoMirageOLY pick100%1-00%0-1
Olympus on Mirage
WBucketJonsBoys13–8todayOmen on Mirage
LBrahmas10–133mo agoInfernoOME pick33%1-233%1-2
CacheOLY bann/a0gn/a0g
Olympus on Cache
no recent maps
Omen on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2OME ban100%1-00%0-1
Olympus on Dust2
WWanted Goons13–103mo agoOmen on Dust2
L
SportsBetExpert11–137mo agoNukedecider67%2-1n/a0g
Omen on Nuke
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Olympus Overpass · Omen Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Olympus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/8 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 2 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 5 downvs LAGAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/5 (60%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 3 (60%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Club 333Infernoled 5 · lost 10-13vs Club 333Nukeled 3 · lost 8-13vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 5 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Club 333Infernoled 5 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Omen
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/4 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 1 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/5 (80%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 4 (80%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BrahmasMirageled 4 · lost 10-13vs SportsBetExpertInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13vs SportsBetExpertDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs ZomblersAncientled 3 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ZomblersInfernofrom 3 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BrahmasMirageled 4 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample