Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Olympus vs LAG · match preview
Olympus vs LAG: CS2 match prediction · ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America
Olympus
World #– · 5-2
VS
2026-09-19 00:30 UTC
ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · Best of 3
LAG
World #94 · 50-27
ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · Best of 3
50%50%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours LAG, form slightly favours Olympus, firepower clearly favours LAG, head-to-head clearly favours Olympus.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
OlympuspullLAG
Team strength1528
158462/38 LAG
Track record5–2
50–2751/49 LAG
Recent formWWWLL
LLWWW64/36 OLY
Roster rating1.09
1.1475/25 LAG
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 OLY
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 80% our own signal (16 maps of Olympus, 177 of LAG). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Olympus leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Olympus to beat LAG, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsOlympus · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| relan★ | 1.15 | 89.7 | 69.4% | 58% | 1.31 |
| Bizarre666 | 1.12 | 79.8 | 70.9% | 44% | 1.21 |
| k6rdon | 0.97 | 70.4 | 71.5% | 65% | 1.07 |
| awayy | 0.84 | 60.2 | 69.3% | 55% | 0.94 |
| Sanzh1k33 | 0.82 | 62.4 | 66.8% | 54% | 0.9 |
LAG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Marsborne#910-20-6
Olympus vs Marsborne
Sep 11LAnubis9-13Ancient9-13
Wanted Goons#2174-16-1
Club 333#2270-22-0
Olympus vs Club 333
Jun 15LNuke8-13Inferno10-13LAG vs Club 333
Apr 3WMirage13-10Dust216-13Map lab
Olympus52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Olympus 2-0
If the veto goes
Olympus 52%how the series ends48% LAG
27%2-023%
25%2-125%
Olympus52%3-1vsLAG48%18-10
75%Win64%
67%CT51%
43%T60%
50%Pistol43%
100%Conv88%
Olympus52%2-0vsLAG48%23-9
100%Win72%
74%CT57%
39%T57%
75%Pistol55%
67%Conv94%
Olympus49%3-1vsLAG51%18-8
75%Win69%
64%CT57%
49%T55%
75%Pistol52%
100%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
OlympusAncientLAG
67%CT side51%
43%T side60%
50%Pistol43%
100%After win88%
25%After loss28%
OlympusDust2LAG
74%CT side57%
39%T side57%
75%Pistol55%
67%After win94%
0%After loss31%
OlympusNukeLAG
64%CT side57%
49%T side55%
75%Pistol52%
100%After win93%
50%After loss28%
Pistol rounds65% · 50% · Olympus win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol92% · 92% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol29% · 29% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Olympus vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapOLYLAG
InfernoOLY ban33%1-265%31-17
MirageLAG ban100%1-048%11-12
AncientOLY pick75%3-164%18-10
Dust2LAG pick100%2-072%23-9
CacheOLY bann/a0gn/a0g
Olympus on Cache
no recent maps
LAG on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisLAG ban0%0-250%5-5
Nukedecider75%3-169%18-8
Each team's usual first ban: Olympus Cache · LAG Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Olympus
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/10 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 4 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 5 downvs LAGAncientfrom 4 downvs OmenNukefrom 4 downvs OmenDust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/6 (67%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 4 (67%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs OmenAnubisled 9 · lost 10-13vs Club 333Infernoled 5 · lost 10-13vs Club 333Nukeled 3 · lost 8-13vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 5 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs OmenAnubisled 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
LAG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/109 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 38 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs mouseDust2from 8 downvs Wanted GoonsDust2from 6 downvs SurgeDust2from 6 downvs Chicken CoopNukefrom 5 downvs FarmVilleInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/66 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 25 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19vs BOSSNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs BOSSNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs WildcardMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Fisher CollegeMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs mouseDust2from 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs WildcardInferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno19-16vs BOSSNuke17-19vs mouseDust216-14vs BOSSInferno16-14