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Predictions / B8 vs Luminosity · match preview
B8 vs Luminosity: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 4
B8
World #16 · 38-33
VS
2026-10-01 10:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
Luminosity
World #37 · 3-6
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
77%23%
61%
1.532.36Market · 2 books
39%The call · high confidence
B8 are favoured: our model gives them 77% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean B8 at 61%. Strength clearly favours B8, record slightly favours B8, firepower clearly favours B8.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
B8pullLuminosity
Team strength1669
150381/19 B8
Track record38–33
3–663/37 B8
Recent formLWWWLLWWWL50/50
Roster rating1.09
1.0792/8 B8
Bookmakers imply 61% for B8 (1.53 / 2.36); we land 16 points higher at 77%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 82% our own signal (153 maps of B8, 19 of Luminosity).
Bottom line: B8 to beat Luminosity, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsB8 · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Luminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainwaker★ | 1 | 72.8 | 69.8% | 52% | 1.11 |
| afro | 1.11 | 68 | 72.2% | 28% | 1.09 |
| lux | 0.91 | 74.6 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.08 |
| yxngstxr | 1.03 | 69.1 | 75.9% | 57% | 1.05 |
| AZUWU | 0.93 | 68.4 | 70.9% | 61% | 1.04 |
Recent form
B8
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#11-40-2
Luminosity vs Spirit
Aug 13LAncient3-13Dust215-19
GamerLegion#202-10-1
B8 vs GamerLegion
Jun 7WInferno13-11Mirage8-13Nuke13-11Luminosity vs GamerLegion
Aug 12LNuke3-13
M80#262-12-3
Ninjas in Pyjamas#291-01-2
B8 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 20WAncient13-9Luminosity vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 3LNuke13-7Inferno10-13Mirage7-13
Lynn Vision#342-00-1
B8 vs Lynn Vision
Jul 4WDust216-14Ancient13-6Luminosity vs Lynn Vision
Jul 2LInferno8-13
Nemesis#440-10-1
B8 vs Nemesis
Jul 2LAncient10-13Luminosity vs Nemesis
Jul 1LInferno10-13Map lab
B862%to win the Bo3 · most likely B8 2-0
If the veto goes
B8 62%how the series ends38% Luminosity
31%2-018%
30%2-120%
B849%20-22vsLuminosity51%1-1
48%Win50%
59%CT46%
46%T56%
58%Pistol50%
88%Conv50%
B864%17-11vsLuminosity36%2-3
61%Win40%
56%CT61%
48%T57%
46%Pistol80%
58%Conv88%
B860%21-14vsLuminosity40%0-2
60%Win0%
63%CT25%
45%T42%
43%Pistol50%
83%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
B8MirageLuminosity
59%CT side46%
46%T side56%
58%Pistol50%
88%After win50%
6%After loss0%
B8Dust2Luminosity
56%CT side61%
48%T side57%
46%Pistol80%
58%After win88%
23%After loss0%
B8AncientLuminosity
63%CT side25%
45%T side42%
43%Pistol50%
83%After win50%
21%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 67% · Luminosity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 75% · B8 keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 0% · B8 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, B8 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Luminosity habitually bans Cache, B8's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Cache 7/9), not an opponent read, so expect B8 to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapB8LUM
AnubisB8 ban0%0-2n/a0g
Luminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheLUM ban67%2-10%0-1
Luminosity on Cache
LM8010–133d agoMirageB8 pick48%20-2250%1-1
Dust2LUM pick61%17-1140%2-3
NukeB8 ban50%7-775%3-1
InfernoLUM ban42%8-1120%1-4
Ancientdecider60%21-140%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: B8 Anubis · Luminosity Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
B8
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/79 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 30 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 7 downvs PhantomMiragefrom 6 downvs BIGDust2from 6 downvs VitalityInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/74 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 27 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13vs NemigaAncientled 6 · lost 17-19vs AuroraMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs PhantomNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Natus VincereInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs paiNDust212-16vs The MongolZNuke17-19vs AuroraMirage13-16vs Natus VincereAncient19-17vs Natus VincereMirage14-16
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/7 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 2 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs LPNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/12 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 4 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs M80Dust2led 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19