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Predictions / BIG vs fnatic · match preview
BIG vs fnatic: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 4
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3
44%56%
62%
1.492.47Market · 2 books
38%The call
fnatic are favoured: our model gives them 56% against BIG. Bookmakers lean BIG at 62%. Form clearly favours fnatic, firepower clearly favours fnatic.
Likely mapsAncient · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BIGpullfnatic
Team strength1630
165856/44 FNA
Track record50–25
44–3055/45 BIG
Recent formLLLWL
LWWLW71/29 FNA
Roster rating1.15
1.1792/8 FNA
Bookmakers imply 62% for BIG (1.49 / 2.47); we land 18 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (159 maps of BIG, 168 of fnatic).
Bottom line: fnatic to beat BIG, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBIG · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
fnatic · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FaZe#132-12-0
BIG vs FaZe
Apr 5WDust23-13Overpass13-11Anubis13-3fnatic vs FaZe
Mar 31WAnubis13-6Overpass13-5
Alliance#212-01-4
BIG vs Alliance
Jan 24WDust213-6Ancient13-11
Liquid#220-10-2
BIG vs Liquid
Jun 2LNuke10-13fnatic vs Liquid
Aug 5LDust210-13Anubis5-13
HOTU#282-12-2
BIG vs HOTU
Mar 26WAncient13-8Dust29-13Overpass13-5
Ninjas in Pyjamas#293-32-1
BIG vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 4WAnubis13-11Inferno9-13Ancient13-6Apr 25LAncient5-13Mirage13-11Anubis5-13fnatic vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 6WCache13-6Mirage10-13Inferno13-8
HEROIC#320-22-0
BIG vs HEROIC
Apr 24LDust29-13Overpass7-13fnatic vs HEROIC
Aug 9WAncient13-9Inferno13-11
K27#413-33-3
Nemesis#441-40-2
fnatic vs Nemesis
Apr 29LInferno5-13Ancient8-13Map lab
fnatic53%to win the Bo3 · most likely fnatic 2-1
If the veto goes
BIG 47%how the series ends53% fnatic
30%2-020%
17%2-133%
BIG59%24-13vsfnatic41%20-16
65%Win56%
56%CT52%
51%T51%
54%Pistol51%
79%Conv92%
BIG51%6-3vsfnatic49%21-12
67%Win64%
44%CT50%
60%T56%
56%Pistol52%
100%Conv94%
BIG34%6-3vsfnatic66%9-2
67%Win82%
51%CT55%
56%T64%
44%Pistol59%
63%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BIGAncientfnatic
56%CT side52%
51%T side51%
54%Pistol51%
79%After win92%
12%After loss11%
BIGAnubisfnatic
44%CT side50%
60%T side56%
56%Pistol52%
100%After win94%
38%After loss19%
BIGCachefnatic
51%CT side55%
56%T side64%
44%Pistol59%
63%After win85%
0%After loss11%
Pistol rounds53% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol81% · 92% · fnatic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 14% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BIG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
fnatic habitually bans Nuke, BIG's strongest maps (Dust2, Ancient, Anubis, Overpass, Inferno, Nuke, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 74/74), not an opponent read, so expect BIG to fight the veto for Overpass.
MapBIGFNA
NukeBIG ban63%10-6n/a0g
MirageFNA ban52%13-1254%13-11
AncientBIG pick65%24-1356%20-16
AnubisFNA pick67%6-364%21-12
Dust2BIG ban67%12-654%15-13
InfernoFNA ban72%13-576%16-5
Cachedecider67%6-382%9-2
Each team's usual first ban: BIG Nuke · fnatic Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BIG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/102 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 102 maps they won, 30 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 downvs Gentle MatesAncientfrom 6 downvs magicOverpassfrom 6 downvs AMMiragefrom 5 downvs AMNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/57 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 15 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HEROICDust2led 9 · lost 9-13vs G2Cacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs B8Dust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs SpiritDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs NemigaAncientled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HEROICDust2led 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITOverpass17-19vs HAVUOverpass16-14vs LeoAnubis16-14vs AMNuke16-12vs NemesisMirage14-16
fnatic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i39/100 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 39 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 downvs MonteOverpassfrom 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 7 downvs Virtus.proAnubisfrom 7 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/68 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs ENCEAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs MOUZ NXTAnubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs AstralisMirage16-12vs K27Dust216-13vs ENCEAncient17-19vs MonteOverpass19-16