Astralis vs Alliance: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 4

One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.

Bookmakers imply 66% for Astralis (1.4 / 2.76); we land 18 points lower at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (134 maps of Astralis, 173 of Alliance).

Bottom line: Alliance to beat Astralis, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.