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Predictions / UPGRADE vs Illyrians · match preview
UPGRADE vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
UPGRADE
World #86 · 8-7
VS
2026-09-21 11:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #– · 3-2
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
60%40%
The call
UPGRADE are favoured: our model gives them 60% against Illyrians. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours UPGRADE, record slightly favours Illyrians, firepower clearly favours UPGRADE.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
UPGRADEpullIllyrians
Team strength1552
151458/42 UPG
Track record8–7
3–257/43 ILL
Recent formLWWLW
WWLWL56/44 ILL
Roster rating1.08
1.0872/28 UPG
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 75% our own signal (38 maps of UPGRADE, 12 of Illyrians).
Bottom line: UPGRADE to beat Illyrians, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsUPGRADE · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pleynnn★ | 1.14 | 83.3 | 72.9% | 60% | 1.23 |
| SquEzxc | 1.1 | 73.4 | 72.7% | 32% | 1.09 |
| dezl3bio | 0.99 | 75.9 | 70.6% | 56% | 1.05 |
| tw1sterzaza | 0.96 | 73.2 | 70.3% | 53% | 1.03 |
| DAN9ARMATURA | 0.94 | 66.9 | 72.3% | 58% | 1.02 |
Illyrians · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.34iStar gap: the best player rates 0.34 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
UPGRADE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
PCIFIC#1072-00-2
UPGRADE vs PCIFIC
Sep 16WInferno13-8Anubis13-2Illyrians vs PCIFIC
Sep 12LDust22-13Mirage1-13Map lab
UPGRADE50%to win the Bo3 · most likely UPGRADE 2-0
If the veto goes
UPGRADE 50%how the series ends50% Illyrians
27%2-023%
23%2-127%
UPGRADE49%7-4vsIllyrians51%1-0
64%Win100%
49%CT56%
59%T67%
55%Pistol100%
83%Conv100%
UPGRADE55%3-5vsIllyrians45%1-3
38%Win25%
48%CT41%
42%T41%
38%Pistol13%
83%Conv100%
UPGRADE47%3-1vsIllyrians53%2-0
75%Win100%
65%CT50%
46%T67%
63%Pistol75%
80%Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
UPGRADEAnubisIllyrians
49%CT side56%
59%T side67%
55%Pistol100%
83%After win100%
20%After loss–
UPGRADEDust2Illyrians
48%CT side41%
42%T side41%
38%Pistol13%
83%After win100%
0%After loss0%
UPGRADEAncientIllyrians
65%CT side50%
46%T side67%
63%Pistol75%
80%After win67%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 43% · UPGRADE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol9% · 0% · UPGRADE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, UPGRADE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapUPGILL
CacheUPG ban25%1-3n/a0g
UPGRADE on Cache
L
Nemesis5–134d agoL
CYBERSHOKE11–137d agoW
Nuclear TigeRES13–87d agoL
Black Phoenix11–1323d agoIllyrians on Cache
no recent maps
NukeILL ban40%2-3n/a0g
UPGRADE on Nuke
W
INOX Division13–52d agoW
HOTU19–1520d agoL
FORZE Reload5–1321d agoLBlack Phoenix11–1323d agoL
BET-M11–1325d agoIllyrians on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisUPG pick64%7-4100%1-0
Dust2ILL pick38%3-525%1-3
InfernoUPG ban67%2-1100%1-0
Illyrians on Inferno
W
ENCE13–111d agoMirageILL ban33%1-250%2-2
Ancientdecider75%3-1100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: UPGRADE Cache · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
UPGRADE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/19 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 9 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 downvs INOX DivisionAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadMiragefrom 6 downvs HOTUNukefrom 5 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/19 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 7 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs ColorMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs FORZE ReloadDust2led 6 · lost 7-13vs XcityAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Black PhoenixNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FORZE ReloadAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BBLMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs HOTUNuke19-15vs FORZE ReloadDust216-14vs INOX DivisionAncient16-14vs ColorAnubis14-16
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/7 (71%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 5 (71%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 71% of their wins were comebacks, not 71% of all games.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 downvs Saint SinnersAncientfrom 4 downvs ENCEDust2from 4 downvs ENCEInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/5 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 1 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Saint SinnersDust2led 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Saint SinnersDust2led 3 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample