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Predictions / fnatic vs Phantom · match preview
fnatic vs Phantom: CS2 match prediction · Stake Pulse Beat II
fnatic
World #42 · 44-30
VS
2026-09-23 10:00 UTC
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
Phantom
World #72 · 53-51
Stake Pulse Beat II · Best of 3
75%25%
58%
1.592.23Market · 2 books
42%The call · high confidence
fnatic are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Phantom. Bookmakers lean fnatic at 58%. Strength slightly favours fnatic, record slightly favours fnatic, firepower clearly favours fnatic, head-to-head clearly favours fnatic.
Likely mapsAnubis · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
fnaticpullPhantom
Team strength1658
158466/34 FNA
Track record44–30
53–5160/40 FNA
Recent formLWWLW
WLLWL53/47 FNA
Roster rating1.17
1.1286/14 FNA
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 FNA
Bookmakers imply 58% for fnatic (1.59 / 2.23); we land 17 points higher at 75%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (168 maps of fnatic, 232 of Phantom). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: fnatic leads 1–0.
Bottom line: fnatic to beat Phantom, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsfnatic · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Phantom · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
fnatic
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Alliance#211-41-2
Phantom vs Alliance
Feb 17LNuke13-8Overpass17-19Anubis10-13
HEROIC#322-01-2
fnatic vs HEROIC
Aug 9WAncient13-9Inferno13-11Phantom vs HEROIC
Jul 16LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Dust211-13
K27#413-30-2
Phantom vs K27
Jul 17LNuke9-13Ancient6-13
FOKUS#431-22-3
fnatic vs FOKUS
May 30LAncient9-13Inferno13-7Dust28-13
SINNERS#450-21-2
fnatic vs SINNERS
Feb 12LDust210-13Overpass3-13
EYEBALLERS#490-11-2
fnatic vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 14LMirage8-13Phantom vs EYEBALLERS
Aug 8LAncient11-13Inferno19-17Anubis10-13
Sashi#551-32-3
GenOne#561-24-3
fnatic vs GenOne
Jan 22LAncient4-13Anubis13-8Dust214-16Map lab
fnatic66%to win the Bo3 · most likely fnatic 2-0
If the veto goes
fnatic 66%how the series ends34% Phantom
40%2-013%
26%2-121%
fnatic69%21-12vsPhantom31%6-8
64%Win43%
50%CT53%
56%T48%
52%Pistol43%
94%Conv75%
fnatic58%20-16vsPhantom42%25-28
56%Win47%
52%CT51%
51%T49%
51%Pistol57%
92%Conv75%
fnatic55%15-13vsPhantom45%22-24
54%Win48%
50%CT52%
51%T48%
46%Pistol50%
92%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
fnaticAnubisPhantom
50%CT side53%
56%T side48%
52%Pistol43%
94%After win75%
19%After loss13%
fnaticAncientPhantom
52%CT side51%
51%T side49%
51%Pistol57%
92%After win75%
11%After loss20%
fnaticDust2Phantom
50%CT side52%
51%T side48%
46%Pistol50%
92%After win80%
20%After loss20%
Pistol rounds50% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol93% · 77% · fnatic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 19% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, fnatic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Phantom habitually bans Inferno, fnatic's strongest maps (Anubis, Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 81/104), not an opponent read, so expect fnatic to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFNAPHA
NukeFNA bann/a0g54%30-26
fnatic on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoPHA ban76%16-586%6-1
AnubisFNA pick64%21-1243%6-8
AncientPHA pick56%20-1647%25-28
MirageFNA ban54%13-1145%15-18
CachePHA ban82%9-20%0-2
Dust2decider54%15-1348%22-24
Each team's usual first ban: fnatic Nuke · Phantom Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
fnatic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i39/100 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 39 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 downvs MonteOverpassfrom 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 7 downvs Virtus.proAnubisfrom 7 downvs LavkedMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/68 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs ENCEAncientled 5 · lost 17-19vs MOUZ NXTAnubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs AstralisMirage16-12vs K27Dust216-13vs ENCEAncient17-19vs MonteOverpass19-16
Phantom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/115 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 115 maps they won, 35 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 downvs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs RUSTECMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i43/117 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 117 maps they lost, 43 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs LeoNukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs WashingtonOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16